WPAC: TD NANGKA (0904/04W; PAGASA: FERIA)
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: TS NANGKA (0904/04W; PAGASA: FERIA)
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 12.1N 123.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 123.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 12.9N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.6N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.4N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.4N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.1N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 24.7N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 27.8N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 122.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED, FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND INDICATES A WESTWARD
TRACK. FIXES BY RJTD AND PGTW, SUPPORTED BY A 1855Z 85GHZ TRMM
IMAGE, ALSO INDICATE A SLOWING, WESTWARD TRACK AND AN INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. TS 04W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEFORE STARTING TO
RECURVE AFTER TAU 48 AS AN UPSTREAM MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL START
TO BREAK DOWN A FINGER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
CHINA AND CREATE A BREAK IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FAVORABLE POLEWARD CHANNEL TO A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS
11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//
NNNN
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 12.1N 123.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 123.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 12.9N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.6N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.4N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.4N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.1N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 24.7N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 27.8N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 122.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED, FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND INDICATES A WESTWARD
TRACK. FIXES BY RJTD AND PGTW, SUPPORTED BY A 1855Z 85GHZ TRMM
IMAGE, ALSO INDICATE A SLOWING, WESTWARD TRACK AND AN INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. TS 04W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEFORE STARTING TO
RECURVE AFTER TAU 48 AS AN UPSTREAM MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL START
TO BREAK DOWN A FINGER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
CHINA AND CREATE A BREAK IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FAVORABLE POLEWARD CHANNEL TO A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS
11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//
NNNN
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Re:
Cookie wrote:why dose this system have 2 names?
JMA (Japan) names systems for the entire West Pacific. They are the official office for the basin. They named it Nangka.
PAGASA (Philippines) names systems that are only around the Philippines. They are unofficial. They named it Feria.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
ZCZC 458
WTPQ20 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 12.6N 122.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 15.3N 119.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 251800UTC 18.0N 119.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 261800UTC 20.9N 119.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
NNNN
WTPQ20 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 12.6N 122.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 15.3N 119.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 251800UTC 18.0N 119.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 261800UTC 20.9N 119.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
ZCZC 497
WTPQ20 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 12.6N 122.4E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 14.9N 119.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 260000UTC 18.2N 118.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 270000UTC 21.5N 118.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
NNNN
WTPQ20 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 12.6N 122.4E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 14.9N 119.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 260000UTC 18.2N 118.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 270000UTC 21.5N 118.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
NNNN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139052
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: TS NANGKA (0904/04W; PAGASA: FERIA)
240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 12.6N 122.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 122.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.2N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.2N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.1N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.7N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 26.0N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 30.7N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 121.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND
250300Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 12.6N 122.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 122.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.2N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.2N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.1N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.7N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 26.0N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 30.7N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 121.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND
250300Z.//
NNNN
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senorpepr
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Re: WPAC: TS NANGKA (0904/04W; PAGASA: FERIA)
Some converted SYNOP observations from Catbalogan, Philippines (98548). 72 hour precipitation totaled 12.88 inches (327 mm).
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senorpepr
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Re: WPAC: TS NANGKA (0904/04W; PAGASA: FERIA)
4 dead, 2 hurt in twister in Quezon town
BATANGAS - Four fishermen were killed while two of their colleagues were hurt when a twister hit their fishing boat in Perez, Quezon midnight Tuesday, police said.
Senior Superintendent Elmo Francis Sarona, Quezon police director identified the fatalities as boat captain Roberto Lungasa of Mulanay, Quezon; Joven Rajas; Ryan Prugada; and Boyet Prias. Brothers Paquito and Reniel Pedrinal were injured and are receiving treatment at the Alabat Hospital.
Reports said that the victims, together with nine other fishermen, were onboard the F/B Anabel and taking temporary shelter in an island in Sitio Pinagbayan, Barangay Sangirin, Perez, Quezon when tropical storm Feria (international name Nangka) brought heavy rains in Southern Tagalog Tuesday evening.
While docked, a twister hit the boat and lifted it up in the air for a few seconds before dropping it upside down into the sea, trapping the four fishermen inside, Sarona said.
========
Manila - Four people were killed when a twister struck an island in the eastern Philippines as a tropical storm battered large parts of the country, a town police chief said Wednesday.
Senior Inspector Susan Planas said two people were injured in the twister that hit the town of Perez in Alabat Island in Quezon province, 120 kilometres south-east of Manila, late Tuesday.
Planas said all the victims were fishermen who stayed in their boat, which was docked at a wharf in the village of Sangirin when the twister struck.
The accident occurred as tropical storm Nangka pummelled the central and eastern Philippines, killing at least one person and leaving nine missing, according to the National Disaster Coordinating Council.
Thousands of passengers were stranded in various ports in the areas affected by the storm as the coast guard suspended sea travel due to strong winds and huge waves, the agency said.
Classes in elementary and high schools in Manila were also suspended due to heavy rains brought about by Nangka.
The weather bureau said Nangka was spotted early Wednesday 40 kilometres east north-east of Romblon island, 210 kilometres south of Manila.
The storm, which has maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometres per hour and gusts of up to 90 kph, was moving northwest at 19 kph.
It was expected to pass near Manila late Wednesday.
The weather bureau advised residents in low-lying areas, mountainous and coastal areas under the path of Nangka to be prepared against flashfloods, landslides and storm surges.
BATANGAS - Four fishermen were killed while two of their colleagues were hurt when a twister hit their fishing boat in Perez, Quezon midnight Tuesday, police said.
Senior Superintendent Elmo Francis Sarona, Quezon police director identified the fatalities as boat captain Roberto Lungasa of Mulanay, Quezon; Joven Rajas; Ryan Prugada; and Boyet Prias. Brothers Paquito and Reniel Pedrinal were injured and are receiving treatment at the Alabat Hospital.
Reports said that the victims, together with nine other fishermen, were onboard the F/B Anabel and taking temporary shelter in an island in Sitio Pinagbayan, Barangay Sangirin, Perez, Quezon when tropical storm Feria (international name Nangka) brought heavy rains in Southern Tagalog Tuesday evening.
While docked, a twister hit the boat and lifted it up in the air for a few seconds before dropping it upside down into the sea, trapping the four fishermen inside, Sarona said.
========
Manila - Four people were killed when a twister struck an island in the eastern Philippines as a tropical storm battered large parts of the country, a town police chief said Wednesday.
Senior Inspector Susan Planas said two people were injured in the twister that hit the town of Perez in Alabat Island in Quezon province, 120 kilometres south-east of Manila, late Tuesday.
Planas said all the victims were fishermen who stayed in their boat, which was docked at a wharf in the village of Sangirin when the twister struck.
The accident occurred as tropical storm Nangka pummelled the central and eastern Philippines, killing at least one person and leaving nine missing, according to the National Disaster Coordinating Council.
Thousands of passengers were stranded in various ports in the areas affected by the storm as the coast guard suspended sea travel due to strong winds and huge waves, the agency said.
Classes in elementary and high schools in Manila were also suspended due to heavy rains brought about by Nangka.
The weather bureau said Nangka was spotted early Wednesday 40 kilometres east north-east of Romblon island, 210 kilometres south of Manila.
The storm, which has maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometres per hour and gusts of up to 90 kph, was moving northwest at 19 kph.
It was expected to pass near Manila late Wednesday.
The weather bureau advised residents in low-lying areas, mountainous and coastal areas under the path of Nangka to be prepared against flashfloods, landslides and storm surges.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
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ZCZC 604
WTPQ20 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 13.6N 120.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 16.9N 119.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 260600UTC 20.7N 117.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 270600UTC 24.4N 118.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
NNNN
WTPQ20 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 13.6N 120.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 16.9N 119.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 260600UTC 20.7N 117.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 270600UTC 24.4N 118.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
NNNN
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senorpepr
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Re: WPAC: TS NANGKA (0904/04W; PAGASA: FERIA)
WTPQ20 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 13.9N 120.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 18.1N 118.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 261200UTC 21.6N 117.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 271200UTC 24.6N 119.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 13.9N 120.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 18.1N 118.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 261200UTC 21.6N 117.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 271200UTC 24.6N 119.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
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HURAKAN
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WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 13.6N 120.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 120.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.5N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.4N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.9N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.5N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 24.2N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 28.4N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 32.8N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 119.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA)
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES,
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
NNNN
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senorpepr
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PAGASA initializes w/ 30 kt...
Severe Weather Bulletin Number EIGHT
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "FERIA" {NANGKA}
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Wednesday, 24 June 2009 "FERIA" has weakened into a tropical depression after traversing Mindoro.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 80 kms West of Ambulong, Batangas or
100 kms Northwest of Calapan City
Coordinates: 14.0°N, 120.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Northwest at 17 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Thursday evening:
170 kms West of Vigan City
Friday evening:
220 kms West of Basco, Batanes
Saturday evening:
60 kms East of Taiwan
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal #1 (30-60 km/h):
Northern Mindoro
Lubang Is.
Batangas
Cavite
Bataan
Zambales
Metro Manila
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Tropical Depression "FERIA" may reintensify into a storm over the South China Sea.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 a.m. tomorrow.
Severe Weather Bulletin Number EIGHT
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "FERIA" {NANGKA}
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Wednesday, 24 June 2009 "FERIA" has weakened into a tropical depression after traversing Mindoro.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 80 kms West of Ambulong, Batangas or
100 kms Northwest of Calapan City
Coordinates: 14.0°N, 120.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Northwest at 17 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Thursday evening:
170 kms West of Vigan City
Friday evening:
220 kms West of Basco, Batanes
Saturday evening:
60 kms East of Taiwan
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal #1 (30-60 km/h):
Northern Mindoro
Lubang Is.
Batangas
Cavite
Bataan
Zambales
Metro Manila
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Tropical Depression "FERIA" may reintensify into a storm over the South China Sea.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 a.m. tomorrow.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
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WTPQ20 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 14.2N 119.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 251500UTC 18.2N 118.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 261200UTC 21.6N 117.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 271200UTC 24.6N 119.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 14.2N 119.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 251500UTC 18.2N 118.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 261200UTC 21.6N 117.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 271200UTC 24.6N 119.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
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