WPAC: TD NANGKA (0904/04W; PAGASA: FERIA)

[cycloneye]

This disturbance is located well SE of Guam.Lets see if it gets favorable conditions down the road and turns into a TC in the next few days.

Below is pic of entire Western Pacific so you can see where is 91W.

[Iune]

By the way, what happened to 90W, it never showed up here?

[cycloneye]

Guam AFD about this disturbance.Who wants to make the 90W thread?

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 162119
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
719 AM CHST WED JUN 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO OLD FORECAST. DID UPDATE WINDS IN THE NEAR TERM
WITH THOSE FROM THE UKMET. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
IN THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE AREA
AND AS SUCH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND BASIC TRADE-WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...NGPS ECMWF AND UKMET ALL HINT AT THE
CIRCULATION NOW NEAR 1N148E MOVING NORTHWEST. NONE OF THE THESE
MODELS MAKES THIS CIRCULATION STRONG. THE CIRCULATION...IF IT
DEVELOPS THE WAY THE MODELS THINK IT WILL...WOULD MOVE TOWARDS
YAP AND PALAU. THESE MODELS INDICATE THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CIRCULATION WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER GUAM SUNDAY. THE GFS DOES SHOW
THE CIRCULATION...BUT KEEPS IT VERY WEAK. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GFS CIRCULATION IS NOT VERY ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD. IT WOULD
BE NICE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS COME OUT AND
ALSO THE REAL LIFE PLAYS OUT BEFORE GOING FOR ANY KIND OF RAIN
EVENT.

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE. A TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE PAST DAY IS SLOWLY EXITING
SOUTHWEST WATERS OF POHNPEI AS IT DRIFTS WEST AND AWAY FROM 157E.
NEAR MAJURO...A BROAD REGION OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
GENERATED BY TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIP
ACROSS MAJURO BY TONIGHT. UKMET AND GFS SHARE SIMILAR PROGNOSIS
BY REFRAINING FROM KEEPING ACTIVE WX NEAR MAJURO DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS WHILE ECMWF HINTS AT THE ARRIVAL OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
MAJURO BY TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS MODELS
REFLECT DIFFERENCE OF OPINIONS FOR THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY. LOCAL
CONDITIONS OVER POHNPEI AND KOSRAE ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THEREFORE EXPECT MODERATE TRADES
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING LONG-TERM FCST.


http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/public.php

[cycloneye]

Not looking healthy right now.



http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/

[brunota2003]

There's an invest for a bunch of cirrus? Really?

[theavocado]

By the way, what happened to 90W, it never showed up here?

It's up on the NRL page, and is still an active invest as of me writing this, just no one has seen a reason to put it in the forum.

[cycloneye]

It looks much better than yesterday when it was almost void of convection.



http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/

[cycloneye]

Something strange happened at NRL as 91W was eliminated and then 92W pops up there,but is the same area of interest .Since its the same system,I moved it back to active storms forum.

Invest 92W

[cycloneye]

ABPW10 PGTW 182300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/182300Z-190600ZJUN2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181951ZJUN2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
AT 181800Z, TROPICAL STORM 03W (LINFA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.4N 116.7E, APPROXIMATELY 820 NM SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, AND HAD
TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 182100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.8N 151.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 45 NM NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND A 1849Z 37GHZ TRMM SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A FORMING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK BANDING. THE 18/12Z
CHUUK SKEW-T INDICATES LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WITH SLIGHT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND A MOIST COLUMN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak T Numbers

18/2030 UTC 6.6N 151.0E T1.0/1.0 92W -- West Pacific

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.8N
151.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 150.2E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST
OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A 181849Z 37GHZ TRMM
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A FORMING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH WEAK BANDING. THE 18/12Z CHUUK SKEW-T INDICATES LIGHT UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS WITH SLIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A MOIST COLUMN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[cycloneye]

ABPW10 PGTW 212330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/212330Z-220600ZJUN2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211951ZJUN2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 211800Z, TROPICAL STORM 03W (LINFA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
25.3N 118.7E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM WEST OF OKINAWA, AND HAD TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 212100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 135.6E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 134.7E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH OF
PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVERGENT
FLOW AROUND A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION NORTH OF PALAU MOVING
WESTWARD. A 211307Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES BROAD WESTERLIES
EQUATORWARD OF THE DISTURBANCE AND DEPICTS AN AREA OF CYCLONIC
TURNING NEAR THE EDGE OF THE DATA SWATH. ALSO, A 211642Z AQUA
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A BROAD MID- TO
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FEATURE IS
ENCOUNTERING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE DIFFLUENT REGION TO THE
EAST OF THE FEATURE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISORGANIZED, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

Odds are this area will become the next storm.

[HURAKAN]

A track similar to Linfa's.

[brunota2003]

It actually looks pretty good, much similar to how now TS Andres did a few nights ago

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PGTW 221000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N 131.6E TO 13.2N 124.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 220600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.6N 131.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N
133.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 131.1E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) NORTHWEST OF PALAU MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A
220501Z PARTIAL TRMM PASS SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
ORGANIZING LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE EAST, JUST WEST OF GUAM. THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS PROVIDING A DEVELOPING OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231000Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

22/0830 UTC 10.9N 130.1E T1.5/1.5 92W -- West Pacific

[cycloneye]

ABPW10 PGTW 221000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/221000Z-230600ZJUN2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751ZJUN2009//
REF/B/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220951ZJUN2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N
133.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 131.1E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) NORTHWEST OF PALAU MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A
220501Z PARTIAL TRMM PASS SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
ORGANIZING LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE EAST, JUST WEST OF GUAM. THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS PROVIDING A DEVELOPING OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. SEE REF B (WTPN21
PGTW 221000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
GOOD.

[HURAKAN]

TD 4W. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=WP042009