WPAC: TD NANGKA (0904/04W; PAGASA: FERIA)

[HURAKAN]

[senorpepr]

WTPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 11.1N 126.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 126.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.7N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.6N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.8N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.2N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.2N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 24.1N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 29.0N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 126.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND
240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (LINFA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

23/0230 UTC 11.1N 126.1E T3.0/3.0 04W -- West Pacific

[senorpepr]

PAGASA agrees with it being a tropical storm...


Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "FERIA"
Issued at 11:30 a.m., Tuesday, 23 June 2009 "FERIA" has intensified into a Tropical Storm as it continues to move closer to Eastern Visayas.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 100 kms East of Borongan, Samar

Coordinates: 11.3°N, 126.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and
Gustiness of up to 22 kph
Movement: West Northwest at 22 kph.

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Tuesday afternoon:
Landfall over Eastern Samar

Wednesday morning:
100 kms Southeast of Tayabas, Quezon

Thursday morning:
200 kms Northwest of Iba, Zambales

Friday morning:
480 kms Northwest of Laoag City


Signal #2 (60-100 km/h winds):
Masbate
Ticao Island
Sorsogon
Albay
Samar Provinces
Leyte
Biliran Island

Signal #1 (30-60 km/h winds):
Camarines Provinces
Southern Quezon
Catanduanes
Burias Island
Romblon
Marinduque
Southern Leyte
Camotes Is.
Cebu
Bohol
Northern Negros
Capiz
Iloilo
Aklan
Dinagat Is.
Siargao
Surigao del Norte
Camiguin


Residents living in low lying areas and mountanous including coastal areas under signal #2 and 1 are alerted against possible flashloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 P.M. today

[senorpepr]

JMA maintains TD intensity. (With actually goes along with JTWC when considering 1-min vs 10-min averages for wind)

WTPQ20 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 11.5N 126.4E POOR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 240300UTC 13.4N 122.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 12.1N 125.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 240600UTC 14.3N 121.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 250600UTC 16.7N 120.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 260600UTC 19.5N 119.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[senorpepr]

PAGASA's 09Z bulletin reports 40 kt.

Severe Weather Bulletin Number THREE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "FERIA"
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Tuesday, 23 June 2009 Tropical Storm "FERIA" has made landfall over Borongan, Eastern Samar.

Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 40 kms South Southeast of Catarman, Northern Samar

Coordinates: 12.2°N, 124.8°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 75 kph near the center and
Gustiness of up to 90 kph
Movement: West Northwest at 22 kph.

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Wednesday afternoon:
70 kms Southwest of Metro Manila

Thursday afternoon:
260 kms West Northwest of Laoag City

Friday afternoon:
500 kms North Northwest of Basco, Batanes

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal #2 (60-100 km/h winds)
Masbate
Ticao Island
Sorsogon
Albay
Camarines Provinces
Catanduanes
Marinduque
Romblon
Burias Island
Southern Quezon
Oriental Mindoro
Samar Provinces
Leyte Provinces
Biliran Island
Northern Iloilo
Northern Negros
Northern Cebu
Aklan
Capiz

Signal #1 (30-60 km/h winds)
Occidental Mindoro
Lubang Island
Batangas
Cavite
Laguna
Rizal
Northern Quezon
Polilio Island
Calamian group
Cuyo Island
Bataan
Bulacan
Metro Manila
Bohol
Rest of Cebu
Rest of Negros
Guimaras
Southern Iloilo
Antique
Siquijor
Surigao del Norte
Siargao Island
Dinagat Island
Camiguin



Residents living in low lying and mountainous including coastal areas under signal #2 and 1 are alerted against possible flashloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 P.M. today.

[senorpepr]

JTWC weakens to 35KT. ADT is off with the center overland.

WTPN32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 11.3N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.1N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.1N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.5N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.9N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.6N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 24.5N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 30.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 125.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA)
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAD
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. A 230404Z TRMM PASS SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER. THE IMAGE
DEPICTS THE CENTER AT OR JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. 222218Z QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 30 TO
35KT UNFLAGGED WINDS WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z,
240300Z AND 240900Z.
//
NNNN

[senorpepr]

JMA increases the intensity to 40 kt -- 994 hPa.

WTPQ20 RJTD 230900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 12.1N 124.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 240900UTC 14.6N 121.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 250600UTC 16.7N 120.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 260600UTC 19.5N 119.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 11.8N 124.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 124.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.8N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.3N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.7N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.7N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.0N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 26.5N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 31.1N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 123.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA)
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAD
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 347
WTPQ20 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 12.1N 124.0E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 14.7N 120.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 251200UTC 17.4N 119.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 261200UTC 20.3N 119.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Very intense precipitation.

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0904 NANGKA (0904)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 12.3N 123.7E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 15.0N 120.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 251200UTC 17.4N 119.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 261200UTC 20.3N 119.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[senorpepr]

I've ran some rainfall totals for the Philippines...

These are 36 hour totals...

[HURAKAN]