EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES (02E)

[RL3AO]

I got it.

[RL3AO]

URPN15 KNHC 231746
AF306 0102E ANDRES HDOB 29 20090623
173800 1806N 10430W 6968 03105 0036 +070 -010 221043 043 056 011 00
173830 1807N 10431W 6967 03100 0030 +070 -009 228048 050 058 010 00
173900 1808N 10433W 6967 03090 0002 +085 -008 220043 044 059 008 00
173930 1809N 10434W 6967 03086 9978 +098 -005 216044 045 061 006 00
174000 1811N 10435W 6966 03083 9982 +087 -001 216045 045 063 010 00
174030 1812N 10437W 6970 03067 9969 +088 +004 211043 046 063 008 00
174100 1813N 10438W 6961 03067 9931 +114 +007 218035 037 062 007 03
174130 1814N 10440W 6973 03041 9910 +118 +011 218030 030 061 003 00
174200 1814N 10441W 6969 03041 9899 +120 +018 218029 030 059 005 03
174230 1815N 10443W 6966 03033 9882 +126 +026 224028 029 044 004 00
174300 1816N 10444W 6970 03023 9865 +135 +034 228021 025 041 003 00
174330 1818N 10446W 6967 03024 9860 +135 +042 225016 018 027 003 00
174400 1819N 10447W 6969 03021 9853 +138 +048 209012 014 023 004 03
174430 1820N 10449W 6967 03022 9846 +143 +054 085004 007 023 004 00
174500 1821N 10450W 6967 03021 9839 +149 +058 039014 019 026 004 00
174530 1822N 10452W 6966 03023 9848 +143 +062 039023 027 030 004 00
174600 1822N 10454W 6967 03029 9866 +134 +065 036032 034 037 005 00
174630 1823N 10456W 6969 03036 9879 +128 +067 032036 038 043 004 00
174700 1824N 10457W 6964 03048 9896 +123 +067 033039 040 047 006 03
174730 1825N 10459W 6968 03052 9907 +118 +067 034046 049 052 006 03
$$

50kt FL, 984mb

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Quite impressive weakening.

[HURAKAN]

716
UZPN13 KNHC 231751
XXAA 73177 99171 71026 04772 99012 25449 14011 00107 24443 13511
92786 18817 19012 85507 14030 20520 70133 08261 20526 88999 77999
31313 09608 81702
61616 AF306 0102E ANDRES OB 05
62626 SPL 1711N10263W 1706 MBL WND 15013 AEV 20800 DLM WND 20019
011697 WL150 13511 082 REL 1708N10264W 170234 SPG 1710N10263W 170
636 =
XXBB 73178 99171 71026 04772 00012 25449 11899 16810 22850 14030
33835 14261 44811 12437 55774 12669 66762 12270 77753 11656 88745
11227 99727 09823 11697 08062
21212 00012 14011 11995 13512 22962 16515 33919 19011 44889 21515
55850 20520 66697 20526
31313 09608 81702
61616 AF306 0102E ANDRES OB 05
62626 SPL 1711N10263W 1706 MBL WND 15013 AEV 20800 DLM WND 20019
011697 WL150 13511 082 REL 1708N10264W 170234 SPG 1710N10263W 170
636 =
;

[HURAKAN]

440
WTPZ32 KNHC 231756
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009

...ANDRES STILL A TROPICAL STORM...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO
PUNTO SAN TELMO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES...85 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
ANDRES SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70
MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ANDRES COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...HOWEVER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.4N 104.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not sure... maybe mid level shear kicked in or something

One thing that we can be fairly certain of... given the recon reports, this was likely a hurricane overnight... and probably a peak of 75KT

[RL3AO]

URPN15 KNHC 231757
AF306 0102E ANDRES HDOB 30 20090623
174800 1826N 10500W 6967 03062 9916 +118 +066 038051 053 052 006 00
174830 1827N 10502W 6966 03069 9929 +116 +064 041057 059 052 005 00
174900 1828N 10503W 6969 03078 9952 +106 +061 042060 061 053 005 00
174930 1829N 10505W 6963 03091 9972 +098 +058 045059 060 053 006 00
175000 1830N 10507W 6966 03096 9978 +100 +055 048062 062 052 006 00
175030 1831N 10508W 6967 03100 9989 +098 +051 049061 061 049 006 00
175100 1832N 10510W 6967 03108 0000 +094 +048 049061 061 048 005 00
175130 1832N 10512W 6966 03112 0009 +093 +044 049062 062 047 004 00
175200 1833N 10514W 6963 03123 0010 +096 +041 050062 063 044 005 00
175230 1834N 10515W 6969 03121 0012 +100 +038 051061 062 044 004 00
175300 1835N 10517W 6967 03126 0018 +099 +037 055061 061 043 005 00
175330 1836N 10519W 6970 03132 0026 +098 +036 053057 060 042 003 00
175400 1837N 10520W 6967 03133 0042 +088 +035 051054 056 039 004 00
175430 1838N 10522W 6966 03144 0047 +087 +033 052052 052 037 003 00
175500 1839N 10524W 6967 03141 0054 +084 +031 055051 052 034 004 00
175530 1840N 10526W 6966 03142 0059 +080 +028 055048 049 032 003 00
175600 1841N 10527W 6969 03145 0062 +080 +025 057046 047 029 003 00
175630 1842N 10529W 6967 03147 0063 +082 +022 058044 045 028 004 00
175700 1843N 10531W 6966 03148 0065 +080 +018 062043 043 027 005 00
175730 1844N 10533W 6968 03149 0063 +082 +015 065042 044 025 004 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

One thing that we can be fairly certain of... given the recon reports, this was likely a hurricane overnight... and probably a peak of 75KT

I agree. RECON is reporting a strong storm and given the appearance of the storm at the moment, it was likely a hurricane last night.

[HURAKAN]

Reminds me of Olaf a few years ago. Olaf also weakened rapidly.

[RL3AO]

URPN15 KNHC 231806
AF306 0102E ANDRES HDOB 31 20090623
175800 1845N 10534W 6965 03148 0062 +085 +012 066037 038 024 004 00
175830 1846N 10536W 6967 03150 0073 +079 +009 070041 043 029 005 00
175900 1847N 10538W 6970 03149 0079 +075 +006 072043 044 033 007 00
175930 1848N 10540W 6966 03154 0098 +062 +002 074037 040 031 008 00
180000 1849N 10542W 6974 03139 0082 +072 -004 078040 044 031 009 00
180030 1850N 10544W 6966 03154 0067 +085 -010 079046 047 030 005 00
180100 1851N 10546W 6969 03150 0069 +085 -013 077045 046 027 004 00
180130 1853N 10549W 6968 03149 0069 +083 -011 077042 044 028 005 00
180200 1854N 10551W 6965 03155 0066 +086 -008 079041 042 028 003 00
180230 1855N 10553W 6967 03154 0065 +090 -005 081041 041 026 004 00
180300 1856N 10555W 6966 03156 0063 +091 -001 082038 039 025 004 00
180330 1857N 10557W 6970 03152 0064 +091 +004 085036 036 025 004 00
180400 1858N 10559W 6967 03159 0063 +092 +008 085035 036 025 005 00
180430 1859N 10601W 6959 03169 0062 +094 +011 083035 036 024 005 00
180500 1900N 10603W 6965 03165 0058 +096 +015 083035 036 025 005 00
180530 1901N 10605W 6973 03151 0061 +094 +017 082035 036 026 004 00
180600 1902N 10607W 6969 03157 0060 +095 +019 081031 032 029 004 00
180630 1904N 10609W 6970 03159 0062 +095 +021 083029 030 027 005 00
180700 1905N 10611W 6961 03170 0068 +090 +021 078030 030 025 005 00
180730 1906N 10613W 6971 03153 0066 +091 +021 076028 030 024 005 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

One thing that we can be fairly certain of... given the recon reports, this was likely a hurricane overnight... and probably a peak of 75KT

I agree. RECON is reporting a strong storm and given the appearance of the storm at the moment, it was likely a hurricane last night.

When it is reanalized after the season,it will be upgraded.

[CrazyC83]

I agree, it likely peaked around 0600Z at around 70 kt with a pressure around 984mb. Right now recon supports 55 kt despite the poorly defined structure (the SFMR supports 60 kt but I'm not sure it is reliable enough that close to shore). Land interaction with the mountains seems to be taking its toll as well.

I'd put 70 kt in the BT at 0600Z and 65 kt in at 1200Z.

[HURAKAN]

236
URPN12 KNHC 231812
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP022009
A. 23/17:44:30Z
B. 18 deg 20 min N
104 deg 48 min W
C. 700 mb 2982 m
D. 63 kt
E. 124 deg 12 nm
F. 228 deg 49 kt
G. 127 deg 20 nm
H. EXTRAP 988 mb
I. 7 C / 3050 m
J. 15 C / 3047 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0102E ANDRES OB 06
MAX FL WIND 62 KT NW QUAD 17:50:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 62 KT NW QUAD 17:50:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
SURFACE CENTER NOT VISIBLE DUE TO UNDERCAST
;

[RL3AO]

URPN15 KNHC 231816
AF306 0102E ANDRES HDOB 32 20090623
180800 1907N 10615W 6967 03159 0061 +095 +020 078026 026 026 004 00
180830 1908N 10617W 6967 03162 0066 +094 +020 079025 026 025 004 00
180900 1909N 10619W 6967 03163 0064 +095 +019 078026 027 026 004 00
180930 1910N 10621W 6966 03164 0068 +092 +020 078026 027 024 004 00
181000 1911N 10623W 6967 03163 0074 +087 +020 082026 027 024 005 00
181030 1912N 10625W 6968 03161 0075 +085 +019 080026 026 023 004 00
181100 1913N 10627W 6967 03159 0075 +085 +017 075026 026 023 005 00
181130 1914N 10628W 6966 03161 0076 +085 +014 075026 026 022 005 00
181200 1915N 10630W 6967 03165 0074 +089 +012 078025 026 021 005 03
181230 1915N 10633W 6962 03168 0078 +085 +011 079022 022 999 999 03
181300 1913N 10634W 6970 03157 0072 +090 +010 072024 025 016 005 00
181330 1911N 10635W 6967 03162 0075 +087 +011 068024 025 020 004 00
181400 1909N 10636W 6969 03163 0077 +085 +011 067022 024 018 005 00
181430 1908N 10637W 6965 03165 0071 +090 +010 070025 026 019 004 00
181500 1906N 10638W 6970 03161 0071 +091 +010 073026 026 018 004 00
181530 1904N 10639W 6967 03164 0070 +090 +012 077024 024 018 003 00
181600 1902N 10640W 6967 03162 0073 +088 +014 078023 023 017 003 00
181630 1900N 10641W 6967 03163 0078 +085 +015 075023 024 016 003 00
181700 1858N 10642W 6967 03164 0077 +086 +015 073021 021 014 004 00
181730 1857N 10643W 6969 03161 0071 +090 +015 073019 021 016 004 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

One man died after boat overturned.Read below.

I death related to Andres

[KWT]

Yeah no doubts this was a hurricane when it was at its peak last night.

[RL3AO]

URPN15 KNHC 231826
AF306 0102E ANDRES HDOB 33 20090623
181800 1855N 10644W 6966 03162 0076 +088 +016 074017 017 018 003 00
181830 1853N 10645W 6967 03162 0074 +088 +017 077016 017 017 004 00
181900 1851N 10647W 6969 03157 0072 +089 +017 075016 016 018 004 00
181930 1849N 10648W 6966 03167 0069 +093 +016 066019 019 017 004 00
182000 1847N 10649W 6967 03165 0071 +090 +016 067020 021 015 004 00
182030 1846N 10650W 6967 03163 0068 +093 +016 062017 019 015 004 00
182100 1844N 10651W 6967 03162 0069 +091 +018 055017 018 019 003 00
182130 1842N 10652W 6967 03160 0069 +090 +020 066017 017 020 003 00
182200 1840N 10653W 6966 03165 0072 +089 +021 065016 016 019 004 00
182230 1838N 10654W 6967 03159 0072 +088 +021 068015 015 021 003 00
182300 1836N 10655W 6973 03155 0073 +090 +021 067015 015 021 003 00
182330 1835N 10656W 6967 03157 0076 +082 +019 066014 016 020 005 00
182400 1833N 10657W 6971 03149 0068 +088 +017 046014 014 023 004 00
182430 1831N 10658W 6962 03164 0079 +084 +015 058014 015 999 999 03
182500 1830N 10656W 6969 03156 0091 +072 +013 077013 015 023 009 03
182530 1830N 10655W 6967 03157 0078 +080 +011 080015 017 027 008 00
182600 1830N 10653W 6967 03155 0075 +082 +008 077016 017 024 005 00
182630 1830N 10651W 6967 03155 0071 +087 +005 074016 018 023 004 00
182700 1830N 10649W 6967 03160 0070 +086 +004 073019 021 022 003 00
182730 1830N 10648W 6967 03156 0076 +082 +005 075021 022 023 003 00
$$
;

[RL3AO]

URPN15 KNHC 231836
AF306 0102E ANDRES HDOB 34 20090623
182800 1830N 10646W 6967 03156 0069 +085 +006 081022 023 023 002 00
182830 1831N 10644W 6967 03156 0068 +088 +008 078020 022 024 002 00
182900 1831N 10643W 6967 03155 0069 +090 +011 074018 019 022 003 00
182930 1831N 10641W 6967 03156 0066 +090 +014 070017 018 023 004 00
183000 1831N 10639W 6967 03158 0068 +090 +017 074016 017 025 003 00
183030 1831N 10638W 6968 03158 0066 +090 +019 069020 021 024 004 00
183100 1831N 10636W 6967 03156 0067 +089 +021 076019 020 026 003 00
183130 1831N 10634W 6967 03157 0062 +092 +022 082019 020 026 003 00
183200 1831N 10633W 6967 03156 0061 +091 +023 077022 022 027 003 00
183230 1831N 10631W 6967 03154 0066 +089 +024 081021 022 027 003 00
183300 1831N 10629W 6967 03156 0067 +087 +024 081023 024 026 004 00
183330 1831N 10628W 6967 03156 0065 +085 +024 081023 023 028 003 00
183400 1831N 10626W 6967 03157 0065 +088 +024 078022 022 029 003 00
183430 1831N 10624W 6966 03156 0065 +087 +023 075024 024 029 004 00
183500 1831N 10623W 6967 03155 0063 +087 +022 075024 024 030 003 00
183530 1831N 10621W 6969 03151 0056 +094 +021 070026 027 031 002 00
183600 1831N 10620W 6966 03153 0052 +097 +020 071027 027 030 003 00
183630 1831N 10618W 6967 03155 0049 +099 +020 073027 028 031 002 00
183700 1831N 10616W 6967 03152 0044 +103 +022 072029 029 029 003 00
183730 1831N 10615W 6967 03152 0045 +099 +024 070028 028 029 004 00
$$
;

[Macrocane]

Yes, I thought that last night was going to be upgraded because it really looked impressive. Now, we're losing Andres but I agree that it must be upgraded in re-analysis.

[RL3AO]

URPN15 KNHC 231846
AF306 0102E ANDRES HDOB 35 20090623
183800 1831N 10613W 6965 03153 0049 +099 +026 072030 030 030 004 00
183830 1831N 10612W 6969 03148 0042 +100 +028 072028 030 029 004 00
183900 1831N 10610W 6969 03145 0044 +098 +030 071027 028 028 004 00
183930 1831N 10608W 6967 03151 0053 +094 +032 071026 027 029 004 00
184000 1831N 10607W 6967 03152 0055 +090 +033 074025 025 031 003 00
184030 1831N 10605W 6965 03156 0059 +087 +033 068024 025 030 003 00
184100 1831N 10603W 6969 03146 0058 +085 +032 065025 026 029 004 00
184130 1831N 10602W 6967 03147 0057 +086 +029 062027 027 029 004 00
184200 1831N 10600W 6967 03149 0057 +085 +026 057027 028 032 004 00
184230 1831N 10559W 6967 03149 0058 +089 +022 063028 028 032 003 00
184300 1831N 10557W 6967 03147 0052 +093 +020 063031 034 032 003 00
184330 1831N 10555W 6966 03147 0045 +097 +018 063036 036 031 003 00
184400 1831N 10554W 6965 03149 0043 +099 +019 058034 035 031 002 00
184430 1831N 10552W 6967 03143 0047 +093 +020 055034 035 032 002 00
184500 1831N 10551W 6971 03139 0039 +099 +021 051037 038 031 003 00
184530 1831N 10549W 6961 03155 0044 +095 +023 050040 041 032 003 00
184600 1831N 10548W 6968 03143 0041 +096 +024 053038 040 034 003 00
184630 1831N 10546W 6966 03144 0050 +087 +025 048034 035 034 004 00
184700 1831N 10544W 6965 03145 0057 +083 +026 046032 033 035 004 00
184730 1831N 10543W 6968 03140 0071 +071 +024 040036 037 035 007 00
$$
;