EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES (02E)

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Re: EPAC : Tropical Storm ANDRES (02E)

#121 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 23, 2009 6:55 am


WTPZ32 KNHC 231153
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009

...ANDRES MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN
TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES...175 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK... ANDRES SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.7N 103.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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#122 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 23, 2009 7:56 am

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Is that the center? Mexico's radars are bad at best.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/
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Re: EPAC : Tropical Storm ANDRES (02E)

#123 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 23, 2009 8:18 am

12Z = 60 knots

EP, 02, 2009062312, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1040W, 60, 990, TS
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#124 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 23, 2009 8:25 am

140
WHXX01 KMIA 231249
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC TUE JUN 23 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES (EP022009) 20090623 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090623 1200 090624 0000 090624 1200 090625 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 104.0W 19.3N 104.6W 20.4N 105.3W 21.0N 106.4W
BAMD 17.8N 104.0W 18.8N 105.1W 19.5N 106.5W 20.2N 108.2W
BAMM 17.8N 104.0W 19.4N 105.1W 20.5N 106.4W 21.3N 108.1W
LBAR 17.8N 104.0W 19.3N 105.2W 20.8N 106.6W 22.1N 108.2W
SHIP 60KTS 62KTS 60KTS 56KTS
DSHP 60KTS 62KTS 60KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090625 1200 090626 1200 090627 1200 090628 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.5N 107.6W 22.5N 109.8W 23.4N 112.1W 24.1N 115.4W
BAMD 21.0N 109.9W 22.9N 113.3W 25.0N 116.7W 27.8N 119.7W
BAMM 22.1N 110.1W 24.0N 113.7W 25.8N 117.4W 28.0N 121.1W
LBAR 23.2N 110.1W 25.6N 113.1W 28.4N 114.9W 30.4N 115.0W
SHIP 48KTS 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 48KTS 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 104.0W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 102.7W DIRM12 = 319DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 101.9W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1004MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 40NM


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#125 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 23, 2009 8:37 am

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First visible. If there's a hurricane, RECON will find it.
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#126 Postby KWT » Tue Jun 23, 2009 8:42 am

What time is recon heading in and from where is it flying out from?
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Re: EPAC : Tropical Storm ANDRES (02E)

#127 Postby MGC » Tue Jun 23, 2009 9:27 am

POD says 1800Z. Looks like close to hurricane intensity this morning......MGC
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EPAC: TS Andrés - RECON

#128 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 23, 2009 9:29 am

736
URNT15 KNHC 231416
AF306 0102E ANDRES HDOB 08 20090623
140800 2642N 09223W 3598 08398 0473 -185 -272 197007 007 017 000 00
140830 2640N 09225W 3598 08398 0472 -185 -274 196008 008 003 003 00
140900 2638N 09227W 3598 08395 0471 -185 -277 193008 008 010 002 00
140930 2636N 09228W 3598 08395 0471 -185 -280 196008 008 012 002 00
141000 2634N 09230W 3598 08394 0470 -185 -282 198009 009 012 001 00
141030 2632N 09232W 3598 08396 0470 -188 -283 184006 007 014 001 00
141100 2630N 09233W 3598 08393 0469 -190 -286 168004 005 011 002 00
141130 2628N 09235W 3598 08394 0469 -190 -288 167005 005 012 001 00
141200 2626N 09237W 3598 08393 0468 -190 -288 152005 005 014 001 00
141230 2624N 09238W 3598 08394 0468 -190 -288 148005 005 012 002 00
141300 2622N 09240W 3598 08389 0464 -190 -289 160005 005 011 002 00
141330 2621N 09242W 3598 08386 0462 -189 -291 177006 006 014 001 00
141400 2619N 09243W 3598 08386 0461 -190 -293 162006 006 015 002 00
141430 2617N 09245W 3598 08385 0462 -189 -294 168006 008 012 002 00
141500 2615N 09247W 3598 08386 0463 -185 -295 189010 010 007 003 00
141530 2613N 09248W 3598 08389 0463 -185 -296 189011 011 005 003 00
141600 2611N 09250W 3598 08386 0463 -185 -296 180011 012 014 002 00
141630 2609N 09252W 3598 08388 0462 -185 -296 171009 010 010 003 00
141700 2607N 09253W 3598 08386 0462 -185 -296 168009 010 018 000 00
141730 2605N 09255W 3598 08386 0462 -185 -295 166010 011 017 001 00
$$
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#129 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 23, 2009 9:29 am

234
NOUS42 KNHC 231430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 23 JUNE 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-026

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ANDRES
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0202E ANDRES
C. 24/1245Z
D. 21.5N 107.8W
E. 24/1700Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

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#130 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 23, 2009 9:31 am

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#131 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 23, 2009 9:34 am

741
URNT15 KNHC 231426
AF306 0102E ANDRES HDOB 09 20090623
141800 2603N 09257W 3598 08384 0461 -185 -295 163009 010 015 001 00
141830 2601N 09258W 3597 08387 0460 -186 -295 164008 009 016 001 00
141900 2559N 09300W 3597 08385 0459 -188 -295 165008 008 019 000 00
141930 2557N 09302W 3597 08384 0458 -187 -295 159008 008 014 002 00
142000 2556N 09304W 3598 08381 0457 -189 -295 154008 008 014 002 00
142030 2554N 09305W 3598 08381 0457 -187 -295 165008 008 020 000 00
142100 2552N 09307W 3596 08386 0458 -188 -295 167008 009 020 000 00
142130 2550N 09309W 3598 08381 0458 -188 -295 170010 010 017 001 00
142200 2548N 09310W 3598 08382 0458 -185 -296 170012 012 020 000 00
142230 2546N 09312W 3598 08382 0457 -185 -297 159011 012 016 002 00
142300 2544N 09314W 3598 08381 0457 -185 -298 154011 011 019 000 00
142330 2542N 09315W 3598 08380 0455 -185 -297 154011 011 020 000 00
142400 2540N 09317W 3598 08380 0455 -185 -297 154010 010 018 001 00
142430 2538N 09319W 3598 08379 0454 -185 -296 153011 011 019 000 00
142500 2536N 09320W 3598 08378 0453 -180 -296 148011 011 020 000 00
142530 2534N 09322W 3598 08376 0453 -181 -295 142011 012 018 001 00
142600 2532N 09324W 3598 08377 0452 -185 -295 143012 013 016 002 00
142630 2530N 09325W 3598 08375 0451 -185 -295 143012 012 022 000 00
142700 2528N 09327W 3598 08376 0450 -185 -295 135012 012 017 002 00
142730 2527N 09329W 3598 08375 0450 -185 -294 128012 012 022 000 00
$$

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#132 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 23, 2009 9:48 am

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#133 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 23, 2009 9:50 am

742
WTPZ22 KNHC 231450
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
1500 UTC TUE JUN 23 2009

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM LAZARO CARDENAS
TO PUNTO SAN TELMO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN TELMO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.4W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.4W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.4N 105.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.8N 107.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.8N 108.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.5N 110.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 23.3N 113.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 23.5N 118.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 104.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


162
WTPZ32 KNHC 231450
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009

...ANDRES HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM LAZARO CARDENAS
TO PUNTO SAN TELMO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN TELMO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES...110 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
ANDRES SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE ANDRES
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.0N 104.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


899
WTPZ42 KNHC 231458
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ANDRES HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 4.0 AND 3.5 RESPECTIVELY. A VERY
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A BELIEVABLE 55-60 KT WIND VECTOR AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
ANDRES. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT
OF THE CENTER LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
ANDRES CONTINUES MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN THE SHORT RANGE...SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS TAKE THE CENTER INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND KEEPS THE CENTER
OFFSHORE...HOWEVER IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ANDRES
COULD MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION. IN
THE LONGER RANGE...THE HWRF HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD AND
SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SHIFT HAS
CAUSED THE CONSENSUS TO ALSO MOVE EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE 2-5 DAY TIME
FRAME...BUT IS STILL SOUTHWEST OF THE CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY PROBLEMATIC SINCE THERE ARE LARGE
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING LAND INTERACTION. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LITTLE...IF ANY...STRENGHTENING...HOWEVER THE NHC
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ANDRES TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN
12 HOURS. IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 18.0N 104.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 19.4N 105.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 20.8N 107.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 21.8N 108.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 22.5N 110.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 23.3N 113.2W 30 KT
96HR VT 27/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 28/1200Z 23.5N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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#134 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 23, 2009 10:04 am

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Becoming less organized? Convection-wise it looks worse now than it did last night.
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Re: EPAC: TS Andrés - RECON

#135 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 23, 2009 10:07 am

557
URNT15 KNHC 231446
AF306 0102E ANDRES HDOB 11 20090623
143800 2445N 09404W 3598 08370 0446 -195 -293 128015 015 021 002 00
143830 2443N 09406W 3598 08371 0446 -195 -293 130014 015 020 002 00
143900 2441N 09407W 3597 08372 0446 -194 -294 130015 016 021 002 00
143930 2439N 09409W 3598 08370 0446 -194 -296 136015 016 020 003 00
144000 2437N 09411W 3598 08370 0445 -194 -297 138015 015 024 000 00
144030 2435N 09412W 3595 08373 0445 -192 -299 136015 015 021 002 03
144100 2433N 09414W 3598 08368 0445 -192 -300 135014 014 021 003 00
144130 2431N 09415W 3597 08372 0446 -196 -302 136014 015 022 002 00
144200 2429N 09416W 3598 08368 0445 -200 -302 140011 012 026 003 00
144230 2427N 09417W 3598 08368 0445 -203 -302 135011 011 032 005 00
144300 2424N 09419W 3598 08371 0446 -205 -302 139011 011 034 006 00
144330 2422N 09420W 3598 08369 0445 -204 -304 133012 012 033 005 00
144400 2420N 09421W 3597 08369 0443 -197 -305 123011 012 034 005 00
144430 2418N 09422W 3599 08362 0442 -201 -306 114017 020 035 008 00
144500 2416N 09424W 3601 08363 0444 -191 -306 133015 019 033 008 03
144530 2414N 09425W 3596 08369 0441 -187 -306 116017 020 027 004 03
144600 2413N 09427W 3596 08373 0442 -189 -305 122016 019 026 003 03
144630 2411N 09429W 3598 08368 0443 -193 -304 132013 014 026 003 03
144700 2409N 09431W 3597 08372 0445 -194 -298 127011 013 027 007 00
144730 2407N 09433W 3597 08372 0445 -192 -291 115011 012 029 006 00
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Re: EPAC: TS Andrés - RECON

#136 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 23, 2009 10:09 am

540
URNT15 KNHC 231506
AF306 0102E ANDRES HDOB 13 20090623
145800 2327N 09509W 3597 08369 0442 -194 -266 126014 015 027 002 00
145830 2325N 09511W 3597 08368 0442 -192 -264 136017 020 023 002 00
145900 2323N 09513W 3598 08366 0441 -188 -263 147026 028 024 002 00
145930 2321N 09514W 3596 08368 0440 -187 -262 145026 028 024 003 00
150000 2319N 09516W 3599 08362 0440 -185 -261 148028 029 024 003 00
150030 2317N 09518W 3598 08364 0440 -188 -259 131025 028 025 003 00
150100 2315N 09519W 3598 08366 0440 -186 -258 126023 024 023 005 00
150130 2313N 09521W 3594 08371 0440 -188 -255 122021 022 024 005 00
150200 2311N 09522W 3600 08360 0440 -188 -252 132018 020 022 004 00
150230 2309N 09524W 3597 08366 0440 -190 -251 136013 015 022 003 00
150300 2307N 09526W 3598 08366 0441 -190 -249 162014 016 020 005 00
150330 2305N 09527W 3597 08369 0441 -190 -243 175012 015 020 005 00
150400 2303N 09529W 3598 08364 0440 -191 -239 163009 010 017 004 00
150430 2301N 09530W 3598 08366 0441 -193 -239 165010 011 016 003 00
150500 2300N 09532W 3569 08422 0442 -196 -239 170007 009 019 003 00
150530 2258N 09534W 3525 08513 0448 -202 -237 165004 006 024 006 00
150600 2256N 09535W 3484 08601 0454 -209 -235 167004 005 025 004 00
150630 2254N 09537W 3446 08681 0459 -215 -233 177005 006 018 003 00
150700 2252N 09538W 3400 08779 0465 -222 -232 184004 005 020 002 00
150730 2250N 09540W 3359 08869 0471 -227 -232 159005 006 014 003 00
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Re: EPAC : Tropical Storm ANDRES (02E)

#137 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 23, 2009 10:13 am

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#138 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 23, 2009 10:14 am

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Re: EPAC: TS Andrés - RECON

#139 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 23, 2009 10:20 am

509
URNT15 KNHC 231516
AF306 0102E ANDRES HDOB 14 20090623
150800 2248N 09541W 3321 08952 0477 -231 -231 143005 006 013 002 00
150830 2247N 09543W 3298 09004 0482 -235 -235 118007 008 013 002 00
150900 2245N 09544W 3290 09023 0483 -236 -236 118007 007 012 002 00
150930 2243N 09546W 3291 09019 0483 -238 -238 123007 008 014 002 00
151000 2241N 09547W 3291 09021 0483 -239 -239 130005 006 013 002 00
151030 2239N 09549W 3291 09018 0483 -239 -239 135004 004 012 002 00
151100 2237N 09550W 3291 09019 0484 -240 -240 137004 004 015 001 00
151130 2235N 09552W 3292 09018 0484 -237 -237 120003 004 013 001 00
151200 2235N 09552W 3292 09018 0486 -239 -239 190003 004 012 002 00
151230 2231N 09555W 3292 09022 0487 -238 -238 225003 005 017 000 00
151300 2229N 09557W 3292 09023 0488 -240 -240 254006 008 009 002 00
151330 2227N 09559W 3292 09021 0487 -245 -245 258009 009 008 002 00
151400 2225N 09600W 3292 09022 0487 -245 -245 249010 011 006 003 00
151430 2223N 09602W 3292 09020 0486 -245 -245 250009 009 012 002 00
151500 2221N 09604W 3291 09023 0486 -245 -248 252008 009 008 003 00
151530 2219N 09605W 3291 09023 0486 -245 -250 257010 011 013 002 00
151600 2217N 09607W 3292 09022 0486 -245 -253 242008 009 012 002 00
151630 2215N 09608W 3291 09023 0486 -246 -256 251008 009 011 002 00
151700 2213N 09610W 3292 09019 0485 -246 -259 254008 009 011 002 00
151730 2211N 09612W 3292 09018 0485 -245 -262 247007 008 013 001 00
$$
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Re: EPAC: TS Andrés - RECON

#140 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 23, 2009 10:30 am

075
URNT15 KNHC 231526
AF306 0102E ANDRES HDOB 15 20090623
151800 2209N 09613W 3294 09012 0484 -243 -265 238008 008 012 002 00
151830 2207N 09615W 3292 09018 0484 -241 -266 215005 006 015 001 00
151900 2205N 09616W 3291 09020 0484 -238 -268 226007 007 009 002 00
151930 2203N 09618W 3292 09018 0484 -240 -269 221007 008 007 002 00
152000 2201N 09620W 3292 09019 0484 -240 -269 216009 009 007 002 00
152030 2159N 09621W 3292 09019 0484 -244 -268 221008 008 012 002 00
152100 2157N 09623W 3292 09018 0484 -243 -268 223008 008 015 001 00
152130 2155N 09624W 3292 09019 0484 -245 -269 229006 007 014 001 00
152200 2153N 09626W 3292 09017 0483 -241 -271 262005 005 011 001 00
152230 2151N 09628W 3291 09019 0483 -240 -270 281002 003 010 002 00
152300 2149N 09629W 3292 09019 0483 -240 -269 306002 003 009 002 00
152330 2147N 09631W 3292 09018 0485 -240 -268 167003 004 010 001 00
152400 2145N 09632W 3292 09018 0486 -242 -268 172005 006 006 003 00
152430 2143N 09634W 3292 09020 0486 -243 -265 212004 005 014 001 00
152500 2141N 09636W 3292 09020 0486 -239 -261 182004 007 014 002 00
152530 2139N 09637W 3292 09019 0485 -238 -254 221003 007 024 003 00
152600 2137N 09639W 3293 09018 0485 -240 -241 225008 009 027 006 00
152630 2135N 09640W 3290 09025 0485 -245 -245 253007 009 024 007 00
152700 2133N 09642W 3292 09021 0486 -250 +999 225003 004 022 001 01
152730 2131N 09644W 3291 09024 0486 -250 -250 185004 006 025 005 00
$$
;
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