EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES (02E)

[cycloneye]

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ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest


Will this disturbance be the one that gives birth to the first named storm in the EPAC in 2009?

[KWT]

Well its certainly very convective, some deep cloud tops present with it. If it can keep away from the land then it has every chance I'd have thought. I'm feeling quite confident that this could be the one but we shall have to wait and see!

[Macrocane]

As I've said in other threads I think that land interaction will be the most limiting factor for this system. I don't see any circulation yet, but it has a good chance to become Andres.

[cycloneye]

TD in a day or two


ABPZ20 KNHC 201739
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUN 20 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY
RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

[cycloneye]

First model plots has it reaching hurricane strengh.But its only the first run and we know they change with each run.

WHXX01 KMIA 201801
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1801 UTC SAT JUN 20 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932009) 20090620 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090620 1800 090621 0600 090621 1800 090622 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.7N 98.9W 14.9N 99.5W 15.1N 100.3W 15.7N 101.1W
BAMD 14.7N 98.9W 14.4N 100.1W 14.3N 101.1W 14.5N 102.0W
BAMM 14.7N 98.9W 14.8N 100.0W 14.9N 100.9W 15.3N 102.0W
LBAR 14.7N 98.9W 14.9N 99.8W 15.4N 101.1W 15.9N 102.6W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 55KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090622 1800 090623 1800 090624 1800 090625 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 101.8W 18.5N 103.5W 19.6N 106.0W 19.5N 108.9W
BAMD 15.2N 103.0W 17.5N 105.6W 19.1N 109.5W 19.5N 114.3W
BAMM 16.0N 102.9W 18.0N 105.2W 19.2N 108.3W 19.1N 112.0W
LBAR 16.7N 104.3W 19.0N 108.1W 22.3N 111.5W 24.4N 114.0W
SHIP 65KTS 75KTS 71KTS 61KTS
DSHP 65KTS 75KTS 71KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 98.9W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 15.3N LONM12 = 97.6W DIRM12 = 257DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 15.2N LONM24 = 95.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[wxman57]

Proximity to land shouldn't be an issue. This one appears destined to be the first storm of the East Pac season.

[Derek Ortt]

the CMC doesn't develop this significantly (even less so than the last TD)

I wonder if we will see another struggling cyclone in the coming days

[HURAKAN]

[Macrocane]

It seems healthy now, strong and persistent convection and an evident rotation. I think that it has better chances than One-C also I agree that it could be a struggling cyclone.

[wxman57]

the CMC doesn't develop this significantly (even less so than the last TD)

I wonder if we will see another struggling cyclone in the coming days

Shear appears to be a lot lower over this system, though. I think it may make it.

[MGC]

Looks like 93E should be a TD soon. If it could stay offshore there is a good chance it could be the first named system in EPAC, a little over a month since the season started.......MGC

[cycloneye]

UKMET is bullish on it to become a hurricane.

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :
15.0N 99.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.06.2009 15.0N 99.2W WEAK
00UTC 21.06.2009 14.3N 99.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.06.2009 14.3N 99.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.06.2009 15.3N 99.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 22.06.2009 15.7N 99.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 23.06.2009 18.0N 101.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 23.06.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... wtnt80.txt

[cycloneye]

Is up to Code Red

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202329
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 20 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THIS REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[KWT]

I'm liking the odds of development with this, think its highly probable that this will become our first named storm of the season.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

Pressure is down to 1004 mbs.

EP, 93, 2009062100, , BEST, 0, 146N, 989W, 25, 1004, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[Macrocane]

Cloud tops have warmed and it seems that it doesn't have a well defined low level circulation center yet. I don't think it will be upgraded to TD tonight, may be tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
EXTEND SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM
DRIFTS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS
IN THIS REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A DISORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...
WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

[HURAKAN]

599
WHXX01 KMIA 210036
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC SUN JUN 21 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932009) 20090621 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090621 0000 090621 1200 090622 0000 090622 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 98.9W 15.2N 99.5W 15.7N 100.3W 16.5N 101.3W
BAMD 14.6N 98.9W 15.0N 99.8W 15.6N 100.7W 16.3N 101.7W
BAMM 14.6N 98.9W 15.2N 99.9W 15.9N 100.9W 16.6N 102.2W
LBAR 14.6N 98.9W 15.0N 99.5W 15.9N 100.5W 16.7N 101.7W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090623 0000 090624 0000 090625 0000 090626 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 102.3W 19.1N 105.0W 20.2N 108.4W 20.2N 112.2W
BAMD 17.2N 103.0W 19.1N 105.9W 20.5N 109.5W 21.2N 113.5W
BAMM 17.4N 103.5W 19.1N 106.6W 20.4N 110.0W 21.1N 113.8W
LBAR 17.8N 103.3W 20.7N 107.1W 23.8N 110.1W 25.7N 111.7W
SHIP 56KTS 65KTS 59KTS 52KTS
DSHP 56KTS 65KTS 59KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 98.9W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 15.0N LONM12 = 98.3W DIRM12 = 245DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 96.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best track

EP, 93, 2009062112, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1003W, 25, 1003, DB