Arabian Sea: Tropical Depression

[HURAKAN]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 25-06-2009

Tropical weather outlook for north Indian ocean (The bay of Bengal and Arabian sea) valid for next 24 hours issued at 1500 utc OF 25 JUNE, 2009 based on 1200 UTC of 25 JUNE, 2009 (.)

THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1730 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 25TH JUNE 2009 NEAR LAT. 22.50N AND LONG. 68.50E ABOUT 50 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DAWARKA (42731) AND 300 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI (41780).

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 996 HPA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GRADUAL ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION DURING PAST SIX HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION SEEN OVER NORHEAST ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF LAT. 20.50N AND EAST OF LONG. 66.50 E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -600C.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS MODERATE (AROUND 15-20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPRATURE IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND IS 0.50 TO 1.00 C ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 250N.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS PAKISTAN COAST NEAR LONGITUDE 67.50E BY TOMORROW, THE 26TH JUNE, 2009 MORNING.

[theavocado]

JT has killed it off, it looks like the TEJ has set back up and the Indian Ocean is once again closed for business.

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.8N
68.5E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN.
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.