ATL : INVEST 93L

[lester]

GAME OVER!

[southerngale]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Personal observation from my walk on the beach last evening...strong breeze (15-20 mph) coming in from the south bringing some small surf to the normally placid gulf coast. Water temp felt quite a bit cooler then it has in weeks.

Where are you? You don't have your location in your profile and don't mention it in your post.

[brunota2003]

And up next on our comedy laugh pack tour! We have Mr. Bones, wanting to tell everyone who is watching this channel a special message! Right after this brief commercial break..............

[southerngale]

As soon as everyone starts writing it off, watch, it's going to get its act together.

[brunota2003]

hence the "right after this brief commercial break" part!

[HURAKAN]

As soon as everyone starts writing it off, watch, it's going to get its act together.

It will be great to see it get its act together and strike Texas as a minimal tropical storm. It would feed our need of tracking storms and help Texas drought!!!

But don't get your hopes up.

[gone2beach]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Personal observation from my walk on the beach last evening...strong breeze (15-20 mph) coming in from the south bringing some small surf to the normally placid gulf coast. Water temp felt quite a bit cooler then it has in weeks.

Where are you? You don't have your location in your profile and don't mention it in your post.

Sorry...I'll fix that...I am in Long Beach, MS...Coop Observer 5 yrs, spotter in KY previous...CoCorRaHS, etc...

[cycloneye]

I think they are about to pull the plug on 93L as no Best Track at 18z was released.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[brunota2003]

They didnt release the 06Z until very, very late either. But honestly, there is nothing there ATM to warrant continuing an invest, so.

[HURAKAN]

[Cookie]

its like waiting for a bus, we have to wait ages for the right no to come, but when they get thier act togeather we will get 2 at once.

[senorpepr]

I think they are about to pull the plug on 93L as no Best Track at 18z was released.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

They didn't release the 06Z analysis until they completed the 12Z. The 06Z was essentially a interpolation between 00Z and 12Z. I imagine it's the same story for the 18Z.

[wxman57]

Doesn't really qualify for an invest now. Hopefully, NHC has dropped it. Models take bulk of vorticity NE across southern FL tomorrow, but a small bit of vorticity westward. Will it be enough to maybe pop a few showers on the TX coast by Tuesday? I'm not holing my breath, but I still do see signs of the ridge breaking late this coming week.

[Bailey1777]

Hey Wxman on the nexrad There is a spin at 20N - 91W is that at the surface?

[senorpepr]

I doubt the NHC is dropping it. 93L looks no worse than it did a few hours ago when CARCAH scheduled a recon flight for it.

[southerngale]

Oh wow, they're still flying... today? If so, what time?

93L looks terrible.

[AdamFirst]

The mets at the NHC are really pushing this one. I guess they like its chances down the road when it clears the Yucatan.

[wxman57]

Hey Wxman on the nexrad There is a spin at 20N - 91W is that at the surface?

It's at 22.5N/91W. Yes, it appears to be a weak eddy at the surface. No convection associated. No significant vorticity as the upper low has moved off, so it'll just die out.

[wxman57]

The mets at the NHC are really pushing this one. I guess they like its chances down the road when it clears the Yucatan.

No, they just want to make sure it's not going to develop until they stop the invest. There's no harm in leaving it as an invest until they're 100% certain. But I'd estimate it's chances of development at closer to 1-2% now than anywhere near 30%.

Well, time to head out and get a bit of biking in. Been fighting with the City of Houston for 2 days as we've had no water since Friday (broken water main). You might see me on the news on Ch. 11 this evening. I contacted the media about the lack of water on my street and they interviewed me. Crews are fixing the pipe now, so maybe I can take a real shower tonight. At least it's been cool yesterday and today - only 101 yesterday and it's only 97 as of 2pm this afternoon. We'll probably only reach 100 today.

[senorpepr]

Oh wow, they're still flying... today? If so, what time?

93L looks terrible.

No, they are scheduled for tomorrow... take off is at 29th at 16Z. They'll be investigating the system from 17-00Z.

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