EPAC: Tropical Depression BLANCA (03E)

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 070834
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 07 2009

THE STRUCTURE OF BLANCA HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AS DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR
THE CENTER AND IN A BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT
0600 UTC. WHILE BLANCA'S CIRCULATION REMAINS ROBUST...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION HAS LIKELY PASSED. THE
SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW LOCATED OVER SSTS LESS
THAN 27C...AND IS HEADED FOR SSTS BELOW 25C IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF COOL WATERS...A MORE STABLE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE AND MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE BLANCA TO
WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
CONSENSUS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL AND SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
BLANCA DISSIPATING BY 96 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/08 BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.
BLANCA WILL BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 36 HOURS AS BOTH
THE CYCLONE AND THE RIDGE WEAKEN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH SHOWS
LESS OF A TURN TOWARD THE WEST PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 18.5N 114.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 19.0N 115.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 19.7N 117.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 20.3N 118.9W 35 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 20.7N 120.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 21.5N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

Not looking good.

[HURAKAN]

363
WTPZ33 KNHC 071433
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 07 2009

...BLANCA GRADUALLY WEAKENING...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST OR ABOUT 465
MILES...750 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

BLANCA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.0N 115.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA


852
WTPZ43 KNHC 071433
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 07 2009

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
BLANCA REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED...DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY
BEEN DIMINISHING. IN FACT...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
CONVECTION COMPRISES A BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH
PULSATING DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CENTER RATHER SPARSE.
THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS CAUSED DVORAK T-NUMBERS TO SLOWLY
DECREASE...WITH THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND
TAFB... RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THESE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 40 KT THIS ADVISORY.

THE CYCLONE HAS ENTERED SUB-26C SSTS...AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
SSTS TO DECREASE TO AS LOW AS 23-24C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
WITHIN 24 HOURS. MOREOVER...BLANCA SHOULD ENCOUNTER AND INGEST MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO MODEST EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE ABOVE CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT WEAKENING
TREND WILL CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BLANCA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW SOONER THAN FORECAST...GIVEN THE INCREASING NEGATIVE FACTORS.

RECENT SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AND ESTIMATED MOTION OF 295/09. THE
TRACK PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. A BROAD BUT FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SUBTROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC WILL STEER BLANCA ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
COURSE...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 36 HOURS AS
BOTH THE CYCLONE AND THE RIDGE WEAKEN. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED NORTH FROM YESTERDAY'S RUNS...AS BLANCA NEARS THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS A RESULT...THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN GRADUALLY NUDGED FARTHER NORTHWEST THE LAST
SEVERAL ADVISORIES PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.

OBSERVATIONS FROM CLARION ISLAND...TIMELY PROVIDED BY THE MEXICAN
NAVY...HELPED TO MONITOR TROPICAL STORM BLANCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 19.0N 115.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 19.5N 117.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 20.2N 118.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 20.8N 120.2W 25 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 21.3N 121.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 10/1200Z 22.0N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

248
WHXX01 KMIA 071834
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC TUE JUL 7 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA (EP032009) 20090707 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090707 1800 090708 0600 090708 1800 090709 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.5N 116.2W 20.4N 117.9W 21.5N 119.6W 22.8N 121.3W
SHIP 35KTS 28KTS 20KTS 0KTS
DSHP 35KTS 28KTS 20KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090709 1800 090710 1800 090711 1800 090712 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.2N 122.9W 27.7N 125.7W 32.3N 126.2W 38.3N 120.4W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.5N LONCUR = 116.2W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 18.3N LONM12 = 114.1W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 112.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

The center is now exposed.

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to TD at 2 PM PDT?

[cycloneye]

699
WTPZ43 KNHC 072032
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2009

CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY AND THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS DETERIORATED RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB. BASED UPON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT.

BLANCA IS NEARING THE 24C SST ISOTHERM AS IT MOVES ACROSS A
STRONG GRADIENT OF SST. MOREOVER...THE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY
BEGUN TO INGEST INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND
ENCOUNTER A MODEST AMOUNT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. THESE FACTORS FAVOR A
CONTINUED STEADY DECLINE IN INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN CLOSE ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL
GUIDANCE. BLANCA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36
HOURS...BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THIS EVENT COULD OCCUR SOONER.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/10...A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED MOTION. THE TRACK
REASONING WITH REGARD TO BLANCA HAS NOT CHANGED. THE CYCLONE
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAKENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED PRIOR TO
DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 19.7N 116.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 20.3N 117.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 21.0N 119.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 21.8N 120.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 09/1800Z 22.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[cyclonic chronic]

watch the vis. & avn loops, u can see the upper level center get decoupled from the low level center due to the easterly shear.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-avn.html

[HURAKAN]

"Looking" better.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ43 KNHC 080231
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2009

A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRED VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL STORM
FOR NOW. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM TAFB. IT WAS A BIT SURPRISING TO SEE THE
RECENT REJUVENATION OF CONVECTION GIVEN THAT THE SSTS ARE LIKELY
LOWER THAN 24 DEG C. HOWEVER SINCE BLANCA WILL BE MOVING OVER EVEN
COOLER WATERS...IT SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...ICON.

MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIXES GIVE A CURRENT MOTION OF
ABOUT 300/10...SO THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED HAS NOT
YET TAKEN PLACE. NONETHELESS...THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BLANCA SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECELERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A MORE WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES A WEAK LOW. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS MORE OR LESS THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
MOTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 20.3N 117.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 21.1N 119.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 21.7N 120.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 09/1200Z 22.2N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 10/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[senorpepr]

EP, 03, 2009070806, , BEST, 0, 206N, 1185W, 30, 1004, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLANCA, M,



06Z analysis downgrades Blanca to a depression...

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
800 AM PDT WED JUL 08 2009

...BLANCA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.1 WEST OR ABOUT
670 MILES...1080 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND BLANCA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT
LOW LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.8N 120.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
800 AM PDT WED JUL 08 2009

AN 0532 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH WAS COINCIDENT WITH
THE TIME WHEN ALL DEEP CONVECTION BEGAN TO COLLAPSE. ALTHOUGH THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED...BLANCA IS NOW A TIGHT SWIRL OF
LOW CLOUDS MOVING OVER 22-23C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BASED ON
THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE CURRENT
WEAKENING TREND. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO HAS BEEN STEERING BLANCA ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST HEADING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. HOWEVER...THE RECENT
DISSIPATION OF ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE BLANCA A SHALLOW SYSTEM
WHOSE MOTION IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A WEAKER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
GIVEN THE RECENT MORE WESTWARD MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK IS
NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND IS ON LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 20.8N 120.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 21.5N 121.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 09/1200Z 22.0N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 10/0000Z 22.5N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[cycloneye]

217
WTPZ33 KNHC 082031
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
200 PM PDT WED JUL 08 2009

...BLANCA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST OR ABOUT
720 MILES...1160 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND BLANCA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT
LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.2N 121.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA



582
WTPZ43 KNHC 082031
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
200 PM PDT WED JUL 08 2009

RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPING
WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF BLANCA...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS
SUFFICIENT CONVECTION TO WARRANT A DATA T-NUMBER USING THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE. WE WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES ON THIS MARGINAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. A 1326 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS STILL INDICATED 25
TO 30 KT WINDS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CENTER. IT IS ASSUMED THAT
THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN SINCE THEN AND THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT. UNLESS THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION...BLANCA WILL
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09. AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...BLANCA
SHOULD BE STEERED ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK BY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 21.2N 121.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 21.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 09/1800Z 22.0N 123.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA/PASCH

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory

WTPZ33 KNHC 090233
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
800 PM PDT WED JUL 08 2009

...BLANCA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF BLANCA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST OR ABOUT
775 MILES...1245 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
UNTIL DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.5N 121.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON BLANCA.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

764
WTPZ43 KNHC 090236
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
800 PM PDT WED JUL 08 2009

ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE CYCLONE'S
CIRCULATION...THE SYSTEM LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...BLANCA IS
DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING TERMINATED.
SOME ADDITIONAL...INTERMITTENT...BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THE LOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN VERY SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT 290/9. BLANCA'S REMNANT LOW SHOULD
CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL HEADING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON BLANCA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 21.5N 121.9W 25 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 21.9N 122.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 10/0000Z 22.3N 124.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 10/1200Z 22.6N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 11/0000Z 22.8N 126.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[Ed Mahmoud]

Remnant Low Blanca still has some convection, and, BTW, what is that South of convectively active Remnant Low Blanca?


Ok, not the mother of deep convection or anything. Looks better on a loop...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Call me crazy, but I think Blanca may have had the plug pulled a little soon.


Not super deep convection, but it still has convection.