WPAC: TD SOUDELOR (05W/PAGASA Gorio)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
WWJP25 RJTD 100000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 18.7N 120.2E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 988 HPA
AT 41N 140E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 41N 140E TO 41N 141E 41N 142E.
WARM FRONT FROM 41N 142E TO 41N 146E 39N 150E.
COLD FRONT FROM 41N 142E TO 37N 140E 34N 134E 33N 128E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 128E TO 32N 120E 33N 112E 33N 107E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 38N 155E 43N 166E 41N 170E 34N 158E 38N 155E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN NORTHERN
PART OF EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 133E 36N 141E
42N 142E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 38N 180E 32N 160E 31N
133E 33N 133E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 46N 158E ESE 20 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 58N 166E NE SLOWLY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 52N 167E ENE 15 KT.
HIGH 1008 HPA AT 56N 144E SE SLOWLY.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING AND SUMMARY 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 18.7N 120.2E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 988 HPA
AT 41N 140E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 41N 140E TO 41N 141E 41N 142E.
WARM FRONT FROM 41N 142E TO 41N 146E 39N 150E.
COLD FRONT FROM 41N 142E TO 37N 140E 34N 134E 33N 128E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 128E TO 32N 120E 33N 112E 33N 107E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 38N 155E 43N 166E 41N 170E 34N 158E 38N 155E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN NORTHERN
PART OF EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 133E 36N 141E
42N 142E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 38N 180E 32N 160E 31N
133E 33N 133E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 46N 158E ESE 20 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 58N 166E NE SLOWLY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 52N 167E ENE 15 KT.
HIGH 1008 HPA AT 56N 144E SE SLOWLY.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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Wind-Condor
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 1
- Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2009 9:14 pm
ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZJUL2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZJUL2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 100000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.7N 120.7E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N
149.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 149.1E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE IN THE EASTERLIES AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS UNDER THE CONVECTION HINTING AT A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW GIVING THE SYSTEM
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZJUL2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZJUL2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 100000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.7N 120.7E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N
149.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 149.1E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE IN THE EASTERLIES AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS UNDER THE CONVECTION HINTING AT A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW GIVING THE SYSTEM
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
NNNN
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
WWJP25 RJTD 100600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 100600.
WARNING VALID 110600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 19.1N 119.9E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 990 HPA
AT 41N 144E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 41N 144E TO 42N 145E 42N 147E.
WARM FRONT FROM 42N 147E TO 41N 150E 39N 155E.
COLD FRONT FROM 42N 147E TO 39N 145E 36N 140E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 36N 140E TO 35N 135E 34N 129E 32N 125E 31N 120E 32N 115E 32N 109E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA.
GALE WARNING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 38N 157E 43N 166E 39N 168E 35N 159E 38N 157E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 134E 35N 140E 42N 141E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 38N 180E 32N 160E 32N 140E 32N 135E 33N 134E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 47N 161E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 998 HPA AT 52N 168E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1008 HPA AT 57N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING AND SUMMARY 100600.
WARNING VALID 110600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 19.1N 119.9E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 990 HPA
AT 41N 144E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 41N 144E TO 42N 145E 42N 147E.
WARM FRONT FROM 42N 147E TO 41N 150E 39N 155E.
COLD FRONT FROM 42N 147E TO 39N 145E 36N 140E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 36N 140E TO 35N 135E 34N 129E 32N 125E 31N 120E 32N 115E 32N 109E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA.
GALE WARNING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 38N 157E 43N 166E 39N 168E 35N 159E 38N 157E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 134E 35N 140E 42N 141E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 38N 180E 32N 160E 32N 140E 32N 135E 33N 134E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 47N 161E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 998 HPA AT 52N 168E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1008 HPA AT 57N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.4N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.2N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.9N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.6N 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.4N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 119.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 05W CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE WEST
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.4N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.2N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.9N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.6N 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.4N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 119.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 05W CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE WEST
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 19.4N 119.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 119.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.8N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.5N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.1N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.9N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.3N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 118.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z
IS 11 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
//
NNNN
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
WWJP25 RJTD 101800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 19.5N 116.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 992 HPA
AT 42N 152E SEA AROUND KURILS MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 42N 152E TO 43N 154E 43N 156E.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 156E TO 42N 161E 40N 166E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 156E TO 40N 156E 36N 146E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 36N 146E TO 35N 136E 33N 126E 34N 118E 32N
107E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 169E 47N 179E 39N 180E 36N 171E 40N 169E.
GALE WARNING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 55N 174E 57N 180E 50N 180E 52N 175E 55N 174E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN EAST
CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 134E 35N 140E
42N 142E 47N 153E 55N 162E 59N 164E 60N 180E 37N 180E 32N 157E 32N
134E 33N 134E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 46N 134E ESE SLOWLY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 54N 172E ENE 10 KT.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING AND SUMMARY 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 19.5N 116.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 992 HPA
AT 42N 152E SEA AROUND KURILS MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 42N 152E TO 43N 154E 43N 156E.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 156E TO 42N 161E 40N 166E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 156E TO 40N 156E 36N 146E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 36N 146E TO 35N 136E 33N 126E 34N 118E 32N
107E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 169E 47N 179E 39N 180E 36N 171E 40N 169E.
GALE WARNING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 55N 174E 57N 180E 50N 180E 52N 175E 55N 174E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN EAST
CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 134E 35N 140E
42N 142E 47N 153E 55N 162E 59N 164E 60N 180E 37N 180E 32N 157E 32N
134E 33N 134E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 46N 134E ESE SLOWLY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 54N 172E ENE 10 KT.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 19.7N 115.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 115.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.1N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.5N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.9N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.4N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.7N 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 115.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z,
111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 19.7N 115.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 115.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.1N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.5N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.9N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.4N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.7N 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 115.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z,
111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
WTJP21 RJTD 110600
WARNING 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0905 SOUDELOR (0905) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
996 HPA
AT 20.2N 114.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 20.7N 108.6E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 21.7N 104.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0905 SOUDELOR (0905) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
996 HPA
AT 20.2N 114.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 20.7N 108.6E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 21.7N 104.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
WTPQ20 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0905 SOUDELOR (0905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 20.3N 113.4E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 110NM
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 20.7N 108.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 130600UTC 21.7N 104.8E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0905 SOUDELOR (0905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 20.3N 113.4E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 110NM
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 20.7N 108.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 130600UTC 21.7N 104.8E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 007
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 20.2N 114.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 114.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.5N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.0N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.5N 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.9N 104.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 113.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
CHINA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS, BUT HAS RECENTLY SEEN AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION BUILDING BACK
OVER THE LLCC. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONTINUED TRACK OF TD 05W INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF VIETNAM BY
TAU 36. TD 05W WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
UNTIL IT PASSES OVER THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA, WHEN LAND INFLUENCES
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IT
MAKES LANDFALL INTO VIETNAM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
NNNN
Quite rare for the JMA to indicate a system is stronger than what JTWC says it's.
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 007
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 20.2N 114.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 114.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.5N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.0N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.5N 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.9N 104.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 113.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
CHINA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS, BUT HAS RECENTLY SEEN AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION BUILDING BACK
OVER THE LLCC. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONTINUED TRACK OF TD 05W INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF VIETNAM BY
TAU 36. TD 05W WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
UNTIL IT PASSES OVER THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA, WHEN LAND INFLUENCES
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IT
MAKES LANDFALL INTO VIETNAM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
NNNN
Quite rare for the JMA to indicate a system is stronger than what JTWC says it's.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
ZCZC 813
WTPQ20 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0905 SOUDELOR (0905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 20.4N 112.5E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 110NM
FORECAST
24HF 121200UTC 20.8N 107.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 131200UTC 22.0N 104.2E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN
WTPQ20 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0905 SOUDELOR (0905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 20.4N 112.5E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 110NM
FORECAST
24HF 121200UTC 20.8N 107.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 131200UTC 22.0N 104.2E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN
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