EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS (04E)

[Macrocane]

Carlos looks bad at this time, the eye is not visible, it's not symmetric anymore and the cloud tops have warmed. By the way, if the NHC used the word annular I won' be afraid to use it anymore

[HURAKAN]

Looking quite bad at the moment.

[HURAKAN]

Looks worse in the satellite images.

[cyclonic chronic]

the end of carlos. shear really messes with small & tiny t.c.'s.

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

...CARLOS WEAKENS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST OR ABOUT
1560 MILES...2510 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50
MILES...85 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.3N 129.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF CARLOS HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE EYE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE IN
GEOSTATIONARY OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
SIGNIFICANTLY. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 1200 UTC
WERE 4.0. THE INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 75 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...HOWEVER THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/05...WITH LESS CERTAINTY
NOW THAT THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT. THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THE NEW FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
...TRENDING TOWARD THE SPEED OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE
SHORT TERM...DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY
ANALYSIS. WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND OCEAN CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST MAINTAINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY
...CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST OTHERWISE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND MAY BE LOWERED FURTHER IN THE NEXT
ADVISORY IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS INDICATED BY THE
SHIPS MODEL. ACCORDINGLY...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...OTHER THAN THE
GFDL...INDICATES THAT CARLOS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER IN THE
PERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 10.3N 129.5W 75 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 10.5N 130.7W 70 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 10.9N 132.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 11.3N 134.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 11.6N 136.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 12.0N 142.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 12.0N 147.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 12.0N 153.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[CrazyC83]

We said this once before and Carlos came back stronger though...

[HURAKAN]

Looking bad at best.

[Iceman56]

If you run a long IR satellite loop, about the time the west-to-east moving high clouds I mentioned yesterday reached Carlos, the system was severely disrupted. Today you can see high clouds moving across the top of Carlos. This thing ain't coming back. Adios, Carlos!

[cycloneye]

Exposed

Wow,what a rapid demise.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track=55kts

EP, 04, 2009071518, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1304W, 55, 994, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[CrazyC83]

Seems somewhat reasonable, but I might have gone a bit lower, like 50 kt. Definitely no longer a hurricane.

[wxmann_91]

Done. Hopefully Carlos doesn't have nine lives... but doubt it will survive the shear onslaught and absorption into ITCZ.

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to Tropical Storm=55kts

454
WTPZ44 KNHC 152034
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

CARLOS HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN...AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 20
KT AS ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS MODEL HAS REMOVED THE DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 55 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF 1800 UTC FINAL-T NUMBERS OF 3.5 AND
3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/08. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED WELL TO SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED
ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION. THIS TRACK IS SOUTH OF
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IMMEDIATELY SHOWS A NORTHWARD
COMPONENT TO THE MOTION. I SEE LITTLE REASON FOR THE CYCLONE TO
GAIN MUCH LATITUDE AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...AND THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE BAM MODELS. THE
MEDIUM AND DEEP BAMS EVEN SHOW A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION ON
DAYS 2 AND 3...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. THE FORWARD
SPEED IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS DETACHED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...CARLOS COULD
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR BE RE-ABSORBED INTO THE ITCZ.
HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE CAN SURVIVE THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE WATERS
REMAIN WARM AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE BY
THE SHIPS MODEL...AND CARLOS COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY DAY 3...CARLOS WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...LIKELY RESULTING IN FURTHER WEAKENING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING AND IS CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 10.1N 130.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 10.1N 132.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 10.1N 134.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 10.1N 136.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 10.0N 138.7W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 9.5N 144.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 9.5N 150.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 9.5N 156.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[somethingfunny]

What a strange little system.

[HURAKAN]

767
WTPZ34 KNHC 160231
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

...CARLOS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1705 MILES...2740 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CARLOS MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.2N 132.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


165
WTPZ44 KNHC 160232
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT CARLOS...WITH
OCCASIONAL PUFFS OF CONVECTION OCCURRING JUST EAST OF THE CENTER.
THERE IS ALSO SOME POORLY-DEFINED OUTER BANDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB
REMAIN 55 KT...THE RAGGED APPEARANCE OF CARLOS SUGGESTS IT HAS
WEAKENED SINCE 18Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO A SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/11. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OR REASONING SINCE THE LAST
PACKAGE. CARLOS IS IN EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...AND BY 36 HR IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THERE
IS LITTLE REASON FOR CARLOS TO GAIN MUCH LATITUDE...ESPECIALLY AS
MUCH AS FORECAST BY THE RIGHT-OUTLIERS NOGAPS AND GFDN. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IT IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE BAMM...BAMD...AND GFS MODELS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN 15-20 KT OF SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE SHEAR
DIRECTION LIKELY TO CHANGE FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY DURING THAT
TIME. THIS IS ENOUGH SHEAR TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON A CYCLONE AS SMALL
AS CARLOS. THE HWRF FORECASTS THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE AFTER 72
HR...WHILE THE OTHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO IT THROUGH
120 HR. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CARLOS TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FOR 24-36 HR AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH 120 HR IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS ARE THAT
THE SMALL CIRCULATION DECAYS TO A TROUGH...OR THAT IT GETS ABSORBED
BY A LARGER ITCZ DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST. EITHER OF THESE
COULD HAPPEN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 10.2N 132.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 10.3N 133.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 10.3N 135.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 10.3N 137.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 10.4N 140.4W 30 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 10.5N 146.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 10.0N 152.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 10.0N 158.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

06z

EP, 04, 2009071606, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1329W, 30, 1003, TD

[Cyclenall]

The 5:00 am EST advisory (not the recent one, lol) said Carlos was a "compact annular hurricane with lack of deep convective features outside of a nearly uniform ring of deep convection surrounding a 10 nm eye". I wasn't expecting to read that when Carlos had very little of the features that make up an Annular hurricane. Is anyone else confused? Did it pass the test at that time or something because it just looked like there was an absence of rain bands.

The 11:00 am EST advisory said "This may be conservative" instead of "This may be generous" by mistake. It's true that conservative can mean both too high and too low but this is the first time they used it in a "too high" case.

[cycloneye]

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND I AM NOT SURE
IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS STILL PRESENT. THE SYSTEM RESEMBLES A
WEAK LOW OR A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE
OF A CIRCULATION ON MICROWAVE DATA EITHER. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING
CONTINUITY AND THE FACT THAT VISIBLE IMAGES ARE NOT AVAILABLE...I
WILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A 25-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. SHIPS MODEL WEAKENS CARLOS IMMEDIATELY AND BASICALLY
DISSIPATES IT IN 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE
INCREASING SHEAR...CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKENS THE CYCLONE QUICKLY TOO.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 12 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. I DO NOT THINK THAT MODELS ARE VERY USEFUL GIVEN THE CURRENT
SHALLOW STRUCTURE OF CARLOS OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 10.1N 133.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 10.1N 135.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 10.3N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 17/1800Z 10.3N 140.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/0600Z 10.3N 142.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/0600Z 10.5N 148.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

8 AM PDT Advisory

WTPZ44 KNHC 161434
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009

CARLOS HAS A SMALL AND POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT IS
STILL PRODUCING SOME DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS ON THE VERGE OF
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW...AND WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED AS SUCH LATER
TODAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 270/14. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES UNTIL THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 9.8N 135.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 9.8N 136.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 17/1200Z 10.0N 139.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/0000Z 10.0N 141.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/1200Z 10.0N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

18z

EP, 04, 2009071618, , BEST, 0, 94N, 1357W, 25, 1007, TD