EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS (04E)

[Cyclenall]

I was surprised the NHC only went with 85 knots on the latest advisory, I would have raised it to 90-95 knots which might even be low since this system it both very small and there is of course a pinhole eye. A huge contrast to yesterday, this system has been everywhere!

I really wish recon could go in it anyways for research purposes .

[cycloneye]

I think is going down again.Big outflow boundaries shooting out.

[neospaceblue]

Could a storm undergo an EWRC at this size and intensity? or is Carlos actually weakening?

[wxmann_91]

A little of both. Microwave data from this morning showed what seemed to be the beginnings of an ERC, but latest low-res data indicates no such process, and in fact shows a very gaunt storm. OFB's certainly aren't a good sign with such a small system, but low level trade flow hasn't been that favorable since the inception of Carlos so it's nothing too surprising. NHC mentioned the onset of NW'ly shear starting around right now, which can be seen in the asymmetry of the storm. Maybe that's it. But really, I would wait for newer higher-res MW to decipher.

(edited for diction)

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track=90kts

EP, 04, 2009071500, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1284W, 90, 972, HU

[cycloneye]

15/0000 UTC 10.0N 128.4W T5.0/5.0 CARLOS -- East Pacific

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[somethingfunny]

Impressive loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

I still think this is a major hurricane.

On that loop (which may have been refreshed by the time anybody reads this), it looks like the eye is filling in towards the end. Who knows how strong Carlos may have briefly gotten?

I wish the NHC could arrange for a recon flight of this storm. I know it's not threatening land and therefore cannot justify the expense and risk of sending in the Hurricane Hunters, but the research gathered would be very valuable when trying to predict the next Humberto, Charley, or Tracy...

[Derek Ortt]

Impressive loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

I still think this is a major hurricane.

On that loop (which may have been refreshed by the time anybody reads this), it looks like the eye is filling in towards the end. Who knows how strong Carlos may have briefly gotten?

I wish the NHC could arrange for a recon flight of this storm. I know it's not threatening land and therefore cannot justify the expense and risk of sending in the Hurricane Hunters, but the research gathered would be very valuable when trying to predict the next Humberto, Charley, or Tracy...

that is the job for the NOAA hurricane hunters. However, it is too far for a P3 to fly. Would need to get closer to Hawaii

[Iceman56]

Visible loop shows some pretty strong west-to-east cloud motions to the W and WSW of Carlos from about 9N to 11N, 132W to 135W, so some nasty westerly shear is dead ahead. The hurricane is already looking lopsided, and as already mentioned, some nasty OB's shooting out to the north. My bet is that Carlos has peaked, and rapid weakening should ensue tonight and tomorrow.

[CrazyC83]

The way it has been up and down, it could easily get a third life later on...

[HurricaneRobert]

It's never been able to go through a complete eyewall replacement cycle before it gets disrupted, so each time it looks like a fresh new hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

Looking really good.

[MGC]

Too far for a P-3 to fly? The P-3 can stay aloft over 20 hours with drop tanks, the C-130J has a range of about 2800 nautical miles. I'd go with the P-3. They were designed to fly a long way over the ocean looking for Russian subs. P-3 can fly about 1000 miles futher than the C-130.

Carlos looks pretty healthy tonight. I see little evidence of shear and convection tops still look cold. I still think Carlos is near 95KTS.....MGC

[cycloneye]

03z Advisory=90kts

WTPZ24 KNHC 150247
TCMEP4
HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
0300 UTC WED JUL 15 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 128.6W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 128.6W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 128.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.3N 129.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.7N 131.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.1N 133.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 11.6N 135.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 12.0N 146.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 12.0N 153.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 128.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


WTPZ44 KNHC 150247
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009

THE EYE OF CARLOS HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING...BUT REMAINS VERY DISTINCT IN INFRARED IMAGES. THE EYE
HAS COOLED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...BUT SO HAS THE
SURROUNDING RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM BOTH AGENCIES SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO
90 KT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CARLOS IS APPROACHING AN
AREA OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN 130W AND 140W DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ECMWF SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
200 MB FLOW IN THAT AREA THAN DOES THE GFS MODEL...WHICH THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE USES FOR ITS SHEAR COMPUTATION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/SHIPS SOLUTION AND FORECAST ONLY
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LATER
IN THE PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR
TINY CARLOS HAVE PROVEN TO BE VERY CHALLENGING SO FAR. IF THE
SHEAR TURNS OUT TO BE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...THE SMALL HURRICANE
WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY WEAKEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/6. THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS
THE HURRICANE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGHOUT
THE 5 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE...WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE HAVING EXHIBITED A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD BIAS THUS FAR. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT CARLOS WILL BE ABLE TO REMAIN A DEEP
SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND IF THIS OCCURS IT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE GUIDANCE INDICATES. SOME
ACCELERATION WOULD BE EXPECTED WHENEVER CARLOS WEAKENS AND IS
INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE FASTER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 10.0N 128.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 10.3N 129.8W 85 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 10.7N 131.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 11.1N 133.3W 75 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 11.6N 135.6W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 12.0N 140.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 12.0N 146.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 12.0N 153.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[pojo]

I really wish recon could go in it anyways for research purposes .

we are keeping our eyes on Carlos. CARCAH hasn't hinted to us if we need to fly the storm as of today, HOWEVER, we are keeping our options open.

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

...CARLOS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1535 MILES...2475 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50
MILES...85 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.2N 129.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA


HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

CARLOS REMAINS A COMPACT ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH A LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE FEATURES OUTSIDE OF A NEARLY UNIFORM RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 10 NM EYE. RECENT INFRARED IMAGES...
HOWEVER...INDICATE THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS RING
HAVE WARMED...HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS SYMMETRIC...AND HAVE SHRUNK
IN SIZE. IN SPITE OF THIS...DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 FROM BOTH SAB
AND TAFB SUPPORT AND INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY IN MAGNITUDE OVER CARLOS DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND MAY EVEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY AROUND 24-36 HOURS. THIS
DECREASE IN SHEAR SEEMS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. FOR THIS
REASON...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SUBTLE SHORT-TERM
DECREASE IN INTENSITY IN LINE WITH SHIPS MODEL AND ICON INTENSITY
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER...INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED MID-OCEAN TROUGH...COUPLED WITH THE
SMALL SIZE OF CARLOS...SHOULD INDUCE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING.
GIVEN THE RECENT POOR PERFORMANCE OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE
CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.

RECENT SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/5...
WHICH REPRESENTS A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
INITIALLY PERSISTS THE SLOWER MOTION AND LAGS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS. AS CARLOS BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES AN ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED AS
THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY AN ENHANCED LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK ESSENTIALLY REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

OF NOTE...WITH AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT...CARLOS HAS BECOME THE
STRONGEST HURRICANE SO FAR SOUTH IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SINCE
RELIABLE DATA RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 10.2N 129.0W 90 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 10.3N 130.0W 85 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 10.7N 131.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 11.0N 133.4W 75 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 11.4N 135.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 11.9N 140.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 12.0N 146.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 12.0N 153.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Tiny Carlos

[Iune]

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

CARLOS REMAINS A COMPACT ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH A LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE FEATURES OUTSIDE OF A NEARLY UNIFORM RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 10 NM EYE. RECENT INFRARED IMAGES...
HOWEVER...INDICATE THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS RING
HAVE WARMED...HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS SYMMETRIC...AND HAVE SHRUNK
IN SIZE. IN SPITE OF THIS...DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 FROM BOTH SAB
AND TAFB SUPPORT AND INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY IN MAGNITUDE OVER CARLOS DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND MAY EVEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY AROUND 24-36 HOURS. THIS
DECREASE IN SHEAR SEEMS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. FOR THIS
REASON...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SUBTLE SHORT-TERM
DECREASE IN INTENSITY IN LINE WITH SHIPS MODEL AND ICON INTENSITY
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER...INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED MID-OCEAN TROUGH...COUPLED WITH THE
SMALL SIZE OF CARLOS...SHOULD INDUCE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING.
GIVEN THE RECENT POOR PERFORMANCE OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE
CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.

RECENT SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/5...
WHICH REPRESENTS A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
INITIALLY PERSISTS THE SLOWER MOTION AND LAGS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS. AS CARLOS BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES AN ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED AS
THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY AN ENHANCED LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK ESSENTIALLY REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

OF NOTE...WITH AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT...CARLOS HAS BECOME THE
STRONGEST HURRICANE SO FAR SOUTH IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SINCE
RELIABLE DATA RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 10.2N 129.0W 90 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 10.3N 130.0W 85 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 10.7N 131.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 11.0N 133.4W 75 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 11.4N 135.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 11.9N 140.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 12.0N 146.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 12.0N 153.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[Ed Mahmoud]

I really wish recon could go in it anyways for research purposes .

we are keeping our eyes on Carlos. CARCAH hasn't hinted to us if we need to fly the storm as of today, HOWEVER, we are keeping our options open.

The forecast path will need to gain some serious latitude in the next couple of days. The islands are around 20ºN, between about 155º and 160ºW. Current NHC forecast wouldn't come close to justifying a flight.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not annular anymore, maybe not a hurricane.

Hard to pick a low level center on IR, but most of the convection is East of where the apparent IR satellite center is, suggesting Carlos is beginning to feel the previously discussed Westerly shear.