Nice mid-level circulation near the monsoon trough. Japan has it as a 1006 TD , and JTWC is still holding it above the surface. Microwave shows some early banding if you squint real hard.
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/112300Z-120600ZJUL2009//
<break>
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
<break>
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4N
130.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 127.2E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD REGION OF MID-LEVEL TURNING EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITH NO WELL DEFINED CENTER. AN 111801Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTION AT THE
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS A POINT SOURCE
LOCATED OVER THE AREA, PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH A
DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED TO THE EAST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
<break>
WPAC: TD (06W/PAGASA Huaning)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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theavocado
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WPAC: TD (06W/PAGASA Huaning)
Last edited by theavocado on Sun Jul 12, 2009 1:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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theavocado
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Re: WPAC: 92W
Microwave image of 92W. Banding seems to be wrapping into two locations, telling me it's elongated north/south and the banding is wrapping into the ends of the elongation due to higher levels of vorticity where tighter turning is. Earlier microwave didn't show the deep convection as well organized, so this might be going fast.
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theavocado
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Re: WPAC: 92W
Wow, that was fast. TCFA by JTWC.
WTPN21 PGTW 120430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.9N 126.8E TO 25.0N 121.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
122330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N
126.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 127.2E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD REGION OF
MID-LEVEL TURNING, EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 120104Z AMSU-B PASS
SHOWS INDICATIONS OF CURVED INFLOW TOWARDS THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REFLECTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE LOCATED
OVER THE LLCC PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE LLCC
IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS).
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER THE REGION ARE
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTI-
MATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130430Z.//
WTPN21 PGTW 120430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.9N 126.8E TO 25.0N 121.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
122330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N
126.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 127.2E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD REGION OF
MID-LEVEL TURNING, EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 120104Z AMSU-B PASS
SHOWS INDICATIONS OF CURVED INFLOW TOWARDS THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REFLECTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE LOCATED
OVER THE LLCC PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE LLCC
IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS).
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER THE REGION ARE
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTI-
MATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130430Z.//
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
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- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
From PAGASA
Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "HUANING"
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Sunday, 12 July 2009
The low pressure area East of Northern Luzon has developed into a tropical depression and was named "HUANING".
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 450 km Southeast of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 18.9°N, 126.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: West Northwest at 19 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Monday morning:
100 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Tuesday morning:
400 km Northwest of Basco, Batanes
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)
Batanes Group of Islands
Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) (...91W...) was estimated at 440 km West Northwest of Mindoro (14.0°N , 116.0°E).
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "HUANING"
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Sunday, 12 July 2009
The low pressure area East of Northern Luzon has developed into a tropical depression and was named "HUANING".
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 450 km Southeast of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 18.9°N, 126.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: West Northwest at 19 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Monday morning:
100 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Tuesday morning:
400 km Northwest of Basco, Batanes
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)
Batanes Group of Islands
Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) (...91W...) was estimated at 440 km West Northwest of Mindoro (14.0°N , 116.0°E).
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "HUANING"
Issued at 4:45 p.m., Sunday, 12 July 2009
Tropical Depression "HUANING" continues to threaten the Batanes group.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 280 km East Southeast of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 20.0°N, 125.0°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Northwest at 22 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Monday afternoon:
240 km North of Basco, Batanes
Tuesday afternoon:
740 km Northwest of Basco, Batanes
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)
Batanes Group of Islands
Babuyan Group of Islands
Calayan Group of Islands
Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated at 580 km West of Mindoro (13.0°N , 115.0°E).
TD HUANING is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains over the western section of Luzon including Palawan and Mindoro and Western Visayas.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "HUANING"
Issued at 4:45 p.m., Sunday, 12 July 2009
Tropical Depression "HUANING" continues to threaten the Batanes group.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 280 km East Southeast of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 20.0°N, 125.0°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Northwest at 22 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Monday afternoon:
240 km North of Basco, Batanes
Tuesday afternoon:
740 km Northwest of Basco, Batanes
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)
Batanes Group of Islands
Babuyan Group of Islands
Calayan Group of Islands
Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated at 580 km West of Mindoro (13.0°N , 115.0°E).
TD HUANING is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains over the western section of Luzon including Palawan and Mindoro and Western Visayas.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Severe Weather Bulletin Number THREE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "HUANING"
Issued at 10:45 p.m., Sunday, 12 July 2009
Tropical Depression "HUANING" has maintained its strength as it moves closer towards Batanes-Taiwan Area.
Location of Center:(as of 10:00 p.m.) 200 km East of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 20.9°N, 124.0°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Northwest at 22 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Monday morning:
210 km North of Basco, Batanes
Monday evening:
420 km North Northwest of Basco, Batanes or
in the vicinity of Northern Taiwan
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)
Batanes
Babuyan
Calayan Group of Islands
Tropical Depression HUANING is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains over the western sections of Luzon and Visayas.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "HUANING"
Issued at 10:45 p.m., Sunday, 12 July 2009
Tropical Depression "HUANING" has maintained its strength as it moves closer towards Batanes-Taiwan Area.
Location of Center:(as of 10:00 p.m.) 200 km East of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 20.9°N, 124.0°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Northwest at 22 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Monday morning:
210 km North of Basco, Batanes
Monday evening:
420 km North Northwest of Basco, Batanes or
in the vicinity of Northern Taiwan
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)
Batanes
Babuyan
Calayan Group of Islands
Tropical Depression HUANING is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains over the western sections of Luzon and Visayas.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
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HURAKAN
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
Re: WPAC: TD - TCFA (92W/PAGASA Huaning)
WTPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120421Z JUL 09//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 22.1N 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.3N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 24.8N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 26.4N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 28.2N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 122.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 120421Z
JUL 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 120430).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 22.8N 121.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 121.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 24.3N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.2N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.3N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 120.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND RADAR BASED IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TD 06W HAS MADE LANDFALL IN TAIWAN AND IS TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAIWAN. INCREASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS, MOSTLY FROM TERRAIN ENDUCED LIFTING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COSTAL REGION OF TAIWAN. CURRENT TRACK
SPEED WILL TAKE TD 06W INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS, BRIEFLY CAUSING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO MAINLAND CHINA, QUICKLY DISSIPATING
AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF TD 06W IS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AND WILL CAUSE
TD 06W TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD BEYOND TAU 12. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z,
140300Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 22.8N 121.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 121.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 24.3N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.2N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.3N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 120.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND RADAR BASED IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TD 06W HAS MADE LANDFALL IN TAIWAN AND IS TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAIWAN. INCREASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS, MOSTLY FROM TERRAIN ENDUCED LIFTING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COSTAL REGION OF TAIWAN. CURRENT TRACK
SPEED WILL TAKE TD 06W INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS, BRIEFLY CAUSING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO MAINLAND CHINA, QUICKLY DISSIPATING
AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF TD 06W IS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AND WILL CAUSE
TD 06W TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD BEYOND TAU 12. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z,
140300Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
Re: WPAC: TD (06W/PAGASA Huaning)
WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 23.6N 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 25.3N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 27.4N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 29.5N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 119.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTHWEST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN
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