EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES (05E)

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200907131205
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2009, DB, O, 2009071312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962009
EP, 96, 2009071212, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1021W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2009071218, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1031W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2009071300, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1041W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2009071306, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1058W, 25, 1009, DB,
EP, 96, 2009071312, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1075W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

ABPZ20 KNHC 131139
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CARLOS...LOCATED ABOUT 1285 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

Compared to tiny Carlos,this disturbance is a giant one.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Carlos heading SW, makes me wonder if these are close enough to Fujiwara, and this goes further North then one would expect from mean flow over a large section of the Pacific.

[MGC]

I don't think they will be too close to bother each other. 96E has more convection than Carlos. IMO 96E should spin up soon.....MGC

[cyclonic chronic]

96E has alot more moist air around it than carlos does.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/loop-wv.html

[cycloneye]

First model plots for invest 96E

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1259 UTC MON JUL 13 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962009) 20090713 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090713 1200 090714 0000 090714 1200 090715 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 107.5W 11.2N 109.5W 12.1N 111.5W 13.0N 113.5W
BAMD 10.5N 107.5W 11.0N 109.0W 11.7N 110.4W 12.5N 112.0W
BAMM 10.5N 107.5W 11.2N 109.2W 11.9N 110.8W 12.7N 112.5W
LBAR 10.5N 107.5W 10.8N 109.7W 11.3N 112.1W 11.8N 114.8W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090715 1200 090716 1200 090717 1200 090718 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 115.5W 16.1N 120.0W 18.0N 125.0W 19.6N 130.1W
BAMD 13.5N 113.9W 15.6N 118.4W 17.6N 123.3W 19.6N 127.9W
BAMM 13.6N 114.4W 15.7N 118.9W 17.8N 123.9W 19.8N 128.7W
LBAR 12.4N 117.5W 14.1N 123.7W 15.5N 129.8W 18.3N 133.1W
SHIP 61KTS 71KTS 63KTS 52KTS
DSHP 61KTS 71KTS 63KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 107.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 104.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 102.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

The giant kid in the block organizing.

[HURAKAN]

630
ABPZ20 KNHC 131744
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CARLOS...LOCATED ABOUT 1370 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

This will not take the Carlos track.

WHXX01 KMIA 131906
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1906 UTC MON JUL 13 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962009) 20090713 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090713 1800 090714 0600 090714 1800 090715 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 109.0W 12.8N 111.3W 13.6N 113.4W 14.3N 115.5W
BAMD 12.0N 109.0W 12.5N 110.6W 13.2N 112.1W 14.0N 113.8W
BAMM 12.0N 109.0W 12.7N 110.8W 13.3N 112.5W 14.1N 114.2W
LBAR 12.0N 109.0W 12.6N 111.3W 13.1N 113.8W 14.0N 116.6W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090715 1800 090716 1800 090717 1800 090718 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 117.7W 16.6N 122.2W 18.1N 127.2W 19.7N 132.5W
BAMD 15.0N 115.9W 17.1N 120.5W 19.1N 125.5W 21.0N 129.9W
BAMM 15.2N 116.4W 17.4N 121.0W 19.7N 126.2W 21.8N 131.1W
LBAR 14.9N 119.7W 16.9N 126.2W 17.9N 131.9W 20.8N 134.2W
SHIP 49KTS 54KTS 43KTS 30KTS
DSHP 49KTS 54KTS 43KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 109.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 105.8W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 103.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Iune]

This kind of reminds me of Elida and Fausto of last year. Elida, the small hurricane and Fausto which was huge compared to Elida.

[Ed Mahmoud]

First model plots for invest 96E

Just guessing the GFS starts bending it beck Westward because the stable air and cooler water North of 15ºN weaken it enough to start being steered shallow again.

Of course, if it gets back below 15º and still has some organization left...

[KWT]

Its big but its not really impressing me that much to be honest, needs more deep convection closer to any center, at the moment its just a big broad low. It may well form but I bet it takes its time in doing so unless it does develop a tighter LLC in the next 24-36hrs, which is more then possible.

[cycloneye]

35
ABPZ20 KNHC 132339
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CARLOS...LOCATED ABOUT 1420 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Iune]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Issued
WTPN21 PGTW 140000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 108.2W TO 14.0N 114.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 109.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0N 109.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 495 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD CONVECTION STARTING TO
WRAP INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
131621Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED 25 TO 30-KNOT UNFLAGGED GRADIENT WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER AND 15 TO 20-KNOT WINDS AT THE
SYSTEM CETNER. ADDITIONALLY, A 132018Z 89 GHZ AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONVERGING ON THE SYSTEM CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MINIMAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS STARTING TO DEVELOP A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150000Z.//
NNNN
[img][/img]

[cyclonic chronic]

is that the LLCC south of 14N & west of 108?

http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/8416/96e.jpg

[Macrocane]

It has strong convection and seems that the organization is reaching the surface, a qscat would be good to confirm this. If the trend continues we could have TD-05E later this morning.

[HURAKAN]

Sometimes too big is too bad.

[HURAKAN]

Broad area of low pressure.

[cycloneye]

96E looks like a elongated trough instead like a true symetrical tropical system.

[somethingfunny]

JTWC jumped the gun on this one with the TCFA. In my amateur opinion, tomorrow will be Dolores's coming out party.

Edit: JTWC issues TCFAs, not the NHC; my mistake.