ATL: INVEST (97L)

[cycloneye]

OB,s over me.

To follow what is going on in Puerto Rico ,VI you can stop at the Eastern Caribbean Thread at Weather Attic forum.

Eastern Caribbean Thread Link.

viewtopic.php?f=20&p=1894656#p1894656

[boca]

The tropical wave will stay to the east of Florida.Look at the water vapor

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
It's about as far west as its going to go.No heavy rain threat to Florida. We'll remain on the dry side.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I think there's a good chance of that, Boca, given the position of the upper trof.

Why can't the NWS Miami figure out that forecast its not happening it doesn't seem that hard to predict whats happening.Looks like a blown forecast for Wed.

[alan1961]

One thing that looks noticeable with invest 97L is it has that rolling effect off a circulation even with all the shear thats upon it, anyone agree or have i been blob watching to much!

[poof121]

One thing that looks noticeable with invest 97L is it has that rolling effect off a circulation even with all the shear thats upon it, anyone agree or have i been blob watching to much!

You're not the only one who sees it. It's probably in the mid-levels if at all.

[Sanibel]

This should almost certainly crash on Hispaniola but it has such good convection persistence in shear that I would keep an eye on it until it dissipates. It could possibly relocate under the convection if it can get a tack on the shear further up into the recurve track. Badly sheared waves that retain convection is a sign of energy.

[gtalum]

Since nobody else has said it, I might as well:

Category 5 right up the mouth of Tampa Bay!!!!11!!1!!11

[lester]

Since nobody else has said it, I might as well:

Category 5 right up the mouth of Tampa Bay!!!!11!!1!!11

run fer it!!!!!!

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 211804
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 25 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...SURFACE
PRESSURES IN THE AREA REMAIN HIGH...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO

We are getting hammered with torrential rains and gusty winds now.

[Derek Ortt]

I wonder if we will see some QG enhanced development as this moves up the east coast. That trough may provide enough energy to see something get going. Not sure yet

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, probably not going to happen, but the CMC (see 850 mb fields) piling in of 97L into the previous wave now flaring in the Bahamas, and then heading for New England, sure would bring much excitement to this board.





Water temp South of Islip now 72ºF, (22º), too cool for tropical cyclone maintenance, but maybe warm enough to maintain enough instability in the boundary layer to mix down the stronger gusts aloft.

Canadian suggests it spends less than 12 hours over water cooler than about 26º




Hurricane Belle, back when we lived in Massapequa, forced an evacuation with National Guardsmen coming to the house to make us leave, and the Harkins, in North Massapequa, had cable and HBO. Almost saw my first "R" rated movie, MPAA screen was on when the power quit. Mr. Harkin worked with my Dad at American Airlines. They all smoked, he wound up with an oxygen bottle, my Dad died of lung cancer. Us kids were in the basement. Anyway, after the lights went out, Dad wouldn't let me go outside. Predicted storm surge did not materialize, but the Smith's across Curlew took a tree through their roof.


Ever since, I have had a love of weather, further strengthened by a week of snow school following the 25 inch snows of the Blizzard of '78.

[Ed Mahmoud]

.


Transition from Sub-tropical to extra-tropical near New York/New England, I can just picture the blood pressure of a certain AccuWx meteorologist if NHC declares an 80 mph storm extra-tropical and passes it off to the Ocean or Hydrological Prediction Centers before it brushes the coast. Or never names it at all!


More discussion fodder here on the boards!

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

AL, 97, 2009072118, , BEST, 0, 171N, 682W, 25, 1010, DB

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Models

WHXX01 KWBC 211842
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1842 UTC TUE JUL 21 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20090721 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090721 1800 090722 0600 090722 1800 090723 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 68.2W 18.9N 72.2W 21.1N 75.5W 23.0N 77.5W
BAMD 17.1N 68.2W 18.0N 70.5W 19.1N 72.9W 20.3N 75.0W
BAMM 17.1N 68.2W 18.5N 71.3W 20.3N 74.2W 22.0N 76.2W
LBAR 17.1N 68.2W 18.8N 71.3W 20.8N 74.2W 23.3N 76.4W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 31KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090723 1800 090724 1800 090725 1800 090726 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.0N 78.3W 27.9N 76.6W 29.1N 72.7W 28.9N 72.5W
BAMD 21.4N 76.6W 23.5N 78.9W 26.7N 78.7W 30.3N 75.1W
BAMM 23.7N 77.2W 26.3N 77.1W 28.4N 74.6W 29.4N 73.3W
LBAR 26.0N 77.7W 30.5N 75.3W 34.0N 70.2W 38.1N 63.4W
SHIP 45KTS 53KTS 60KTS 64KTS
DSHP 42KTS 51KTS 57KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.1N LONCUR = 68.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 22KT
LATM12 = 15.0N LONM12 = 64.6W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 59.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Ed Mahmoud]

Apparent mid-level rotation SSW of Cycloneye, will it clear the Dominican Cordillera relatively intact?

[Derek Ortt]

New England storms usually dont bring much attention at all here

only Caribbean, S Florida, and GOM storms bring the large traffic I have found

[Ed Mahmoud]

New England storms usually dont bring much attention at all here

only Caribbean, S Florida, and GOM storms bring the large traffic I have found

My Mom wasn't even 5 years old, and remembers the 1938 storm. Her brother, who was sickly (he died age 10 from cystic fibrosis) walked home from school in suburban Boston with tree branches crashing down.


It'd pass by the Carolinas per the CMC scenario.


BTW, my mother does carry the gene, I have been tested, and am not a carrier.

[Macrocane]

It's seems that is very possible that 97L or at least some energy from it will develop off the US East Coast. CMC, GFS, NOGAPS and ECMWF are in agreement though I don't buy what CMC is predicting, conditions will be only marginal to support development, and a subtropical cyclone is more likely. This is just and unofficial opinion By the way, do you think that 97-L and the Bahamas disturbance could have some interaction and develop?

[lrak]

Man that little burst SW of Puerto Rico looks like it might be getting to the surface via satellite observation. And the radar sure looks like something is spinning and moving WNW? Shear has really come down compared to yesterday, still high and the wrong direction but it has come down.

[HURAKAN]

Maybe at the mid-levels but the circulation is present.

[lrak]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... 1&loop=yes

another long range radar loop.