CPAC : INVEST (91C)

[senorpepr]

New invest in the Central Pacific.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST SAT JUL 18 2009

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED 500 TO 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

BIRCHARD


ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

No models have been ran on the system, as listed from the NHC's ftp site.

Worth watching...

[cycloneye]

Mike,is that ex Carlos that has resucitated?

[senorpepr]

Mike,is that ex Carlos that has resucitated?

Unfortunately, I don't have the satellite data available to me from between when Carlos was dropped and when 91C was added.

However, looking at the last day of Carlos, it was gaining about 1.4° longitude each six hours.

At 16/18Z, Carlos was at 9.4°N 135.7°W. Extrapolating 1.4° longitude each six hours brings us at 19/12Z to 151.1°W.

91C was at 9.8°N 153.6°W.

Considering as Carlos weakened, it probably sped up a little bit (which was a trend the last few days of Carlos). In my opinion, 91C is, in fact, ex-Carlos or at least part of it is.

[senorpepr]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN JUL 19 2009

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED 500 TO 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

BIRCHARD

[senorpepr]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN JUL 19 2009

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A SURFACE TROUGH MORE THAN 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII HAS BEEN MOVING WEST NEAR 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA IS
UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

KINEL

[senorpepr]

400 PM HST SUN JUL 19 2009

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A surface trough more than 500 miles south-southwest of the Big Island of Hawaii has been moving west at 10 to 15 mph. Much of the convection associated with the feature has weakened or dissipated over the past six hours. Tropical cyclone development in the area is unlikely over the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday afternoon.

[senorpepr]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1000 PM HST SUN JUL 19 2009

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A SURFACE TROUGH MORE THAN 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII HAS BEEN MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

FOSTER

[CrazyC83]

Yeah that definitely looks to be ex-Carlos. It won't likely develop though.

[senorpepr]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 400 AM HST MON JUL 20 2009

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A SURFACE TROUGH MORE THAN 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THE CONVECTION WITHIN THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP AND DISSIPATE AT TIMES BUT MAINTAINING ITS OVERALL STATE. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

FOSTER

[senorpepr]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1000 AM HST MON JUL 20 2009

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A SURFACE TROUGH MORE THAN 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII HAS BEEN MOVING WEST NEAR 15 MPH. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SPORADIC AND RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

KINEL

[HURAKAN]

400 AM HST TUE JUL 21 2009

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A surface trough 1160 miles southwest of Honolulu has been moving west near 20 mph. Thunderstorms associated with the system have increased over the past six hours. However, tropical cyclone development in the area is unlikely over the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through early Thursday morning.

[HURAKAN]

21/1800 UTC 10.6N 171.9W T1.5/1.5 91C -- Central Pacific

[HURAKAN]

1000 AM HST TUE JUL 21 2009

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A surface trough more than 1000 miles southwest of the island of Kauai has been moving west near 20 mph. Thunderstorms associated with the system have intensified over the past six hours as the system has entered a more favorable environment. Sea surface temperatures remain above 80 degrees fahrenheit, and vertical wind shear has decreased over the trough. Tropical cyclone development is possible over the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday morning.

[KWT]

May well not develop in time to be a CPAC system, well it may reach depression status but I suspect it won't make any thing higher before it hits the dateline given its moving at 20mph.

[CrazyC83]

If this develops into a TD before 180, would it be TD One-C or TD Carlos?

[Iune]

If this develops into a TD before 180, would it be TD One-C or TD Carlos?

It would be TD One-C because only a part of Carlos (if any) is here, like TD 10- Katrina of 2005.

[Cyclenall]

It's the best looking Cpac invest I've seen in a very long time. It's Ex-Carlos coming back from the dead trying to get the message across...it's death in the western Epac does not mean that there won't be an El Nino since El Nino conditions should have allowed it to become major and cross into the Cpac at that intensity, but now it's coming back in the Cpac. Whew, that was a handful of terms right there!

Invest 91C is even acting like Carlos did, looking horrible one day and then amazing the next and so on...

*6666th Evil Post*

[HURAKAN]

400 PM HST TUE JUL 21 2009

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A surface trough more than 1100 miles southwest of the island of Kauai has been moving west near 20 mph. Over the past six hours, thunderstorms associated with the system have weakened and areal coverage has decreased. A quik-scat satellite pass did not indicate a surface circulation center at this time. However, sea surface temperatures remain above 80 degrees fahrenheit, and vertical wind shear continues to be weak. Therefore, tropical cyclone development is still a possibility over the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday afternoon.

[HURAKAN]

Poof!

[KWT]

Looks like its not going to develop before hitting that dateline now, still could do something in the WPAC eventually.