ATL : INVEST 98L

[Thunder44]

there really is no need for recon, there is basically nothing to look at. Its XtraTrop already and is caught up in a TROF and the jet.

NHC is bored, as are we.... we can only do so many simulated storms until we get anxious for the real thing.

They heard you,no go.

I'm still wondering why they decided to label this an invest this morning.

[cycloneye]

Thank you for the clarification and for the updated cancellation.

[TropicalWXMA]

Anyone else seeing it trying to close off?

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/anim ... astwv.html

[wxman57]

Anyone else seeing it trying to close off?

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/anim ... astwv.html

You certainly won't be able to detect the formation or existence of a surface circulation center with water vapor imagery. The best tool to use with a disturbance near land is current surface observations. From the screen shot I posted 4-5 posts up, you can clearly identify where the low center is. My 15Z estimate is 37.3N/73.8W. Movement is an estimated 20-25 kts to the NNE and accelerating.

Here's a new graphic with the closed surface circulation indicated (by using surface obs) and the upper level low center indicated:

[Ed Mahmoud]

there really is no need for recon, there is basically nothing to look at. Its XtraTrop already and is caught up in a TROF and the jet.

NHC is bored, as are we.... we can only do so many simulated storms until we get anxious for the real thing.

They heard you,no go.

My last shot at July 21st to July 31st, gone.

[Dionne]

The 12z NAM today appears to wrap this system in up quickly into a TC, before hitting Eastern Long Island tonight.

Long Island has had plenty of rain this summer. I'm told it rained 24 days in the month of June in Huntington. Folks that live out on Long Island know they are over due for a storm. If and when they do get hit.....there is no evacuation. It is physically impossible to evac L.I.

[Category 5]

Looks like a Nor'easter to me.

Getting a nice shower from it though.

[TropicalWXMA]

Anyone else seeing it trying to close off?

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/anim ... astwv.html

You certainly won't be able to detect the formation or existence of a surface circulation center with water vapor imagery. The best tool to use with a disturbance near land is current surface observations. From the screen shot I posted 4-5 posts up, you can clearly identify where the low center is. My 15Z estimate is 37.3N/73.8W. Movement is an estimated 20-25 kts to the NNE and accelerating.

Here's a new graphic with the closed surface circulation indicated (by using surface obs) and the upper level low center indicated:

Awesome graphic! Thank you!

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 12z NAM today appears to wrap this system in up quickly into a TC, before hitting Eastern Long Island tonight.

Long Island has had plenty of rain this summer. I'm told it rained 24 days in the month of June in Huntington. Folks that live out on Long Island know they are over due for a storm. If and when they do get hit.....there is no evacuation. It is physically impossible to evac L.I.

I've looked at SLOSH maps for supposed worst case (Cat 4) hurricanes, and generally, near, or just North, of Sunrise Highway is the limit of storm surge flooding. That is several miles inland, but probably 80% of the island stays above water.


Evacuation would be slow, it is all through NYC. I think the danger mihgt be worse in the city, not from surge but from stronger winds aloft and broken glass.

Houston tightened office tower building codes for windows after Alicia, and Cat 2 Ike still broke a lot of windows downtown.

Winds can be a category stronger a few hundred feet above ground.


Between several hundred miles of cold water, and fairly infrequent direct strikes, Belle and Gloria are the only two Long Island hurricanes that come to memory w/o checking Wiki, the odds in any given year are infintesimally small.

But eventually, a 1938 storm that is a Cat 5 in the Bahamas and only weakens to a Cat 3 (no doubt helped by baroclinic forcing) will hit, and if it hits 50 miles West of 1938, it'll be a real disaster. It could happen in 2 weeks, or 200 years. But it will happen.

[TropicalWXMA]

A little observational message, up here Boston we're getting sustained winds of 13-18 mph. It got windy here pretty quick over the past few hours.

[lester]

Looks like a Nor'easter to me.

Getting a nice shower from it though.

just got an isolated heavy rain shower..dunno if it's related to 98L though..

[cpdaman]

well i think this is pretty interesting to follow.......and it seems it may effect parts of eastern long island and SNE coast with 50 mph plus wind gusts as well as also at times of astrinomical high tide

not to mention it could still be named sub tropical....

[Ed Mahmoud]

well i think this is pretty interesting to follow.......and it seems it may effect parts of eastern long island and SNE coast with 50 mph plus wind gusts as well as also at times of astrinomical high tide

not to mention it could still be named sub tropical....

Doubtful w/o recon.

[Sanibel]

Could be a sign that Atlantic conditions will soon support surface development.

[angelwing]

Looks like a Nor'easter to me.

Getting a nice shower from it though.

You call that a nice shower??? I got drenched leaving the base library, sitting here in my office soaked! More like the heavens opened! Lakes everywhere here!

The hubby just emailed me, it's teeming at home now in Blue Bell, can't wait to see what traffic will be like later

[cycloneye]

Nasty weather for those who live in the NE.

[BigA]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Very neat. There is a small circulation embedded at the southern end of the larger circulation

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nasty weather for those who live in the NE.

I see an "eye like feature"!



.

[Category 5]

Looks like a Nor'easter to me.

Getting a nice shower from it though.

You call that a nice shower??? I got drenched leaving the base library, sitting here in my office soaked! More like the heavens opened! Lakes everywhere here!

The hubby just emailed me, it's teeming at home now in Blue Bell, can't wait to see what traffic will be like later

I woke up after it I guess, it looks like it rained harder earlier.

[TropicalWXMA]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=DOX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Very neat. There is a small circulation embedded at the southern end of the larger circulation

I see one as well!