WPAC: 90W

[theavocado]

ABPW10 PGTW 252200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/252200Z-260600ZJUL2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.1N 159.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 440 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RAGGED DEEP
CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
THAT IS PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST IS ASSISTING WITH OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
REGION OF WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOON TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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[theavocado]

Up to fair yesterday, still holding there. As this continues to become a broad circulation, I'm placing my bets on it becoming a monsoon gyre (see tropical analysis forum).

ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZJUL2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
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(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3N
149.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
NORTH OF GUAM. A PRIMARY LLCC HAS YET TO CONSOLIDATE DESPITE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. ANALYSIS OF QUIKSCAT
DATA INDICATE A BROAD CIRCULATION NEARLY 5 DEGREES IN DIAMETER WITH
MULTIPLE WEAK CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. OVERALL CONVECTION IS
WEAK AND LIMITED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHEAST IS PROVIDING MARGINALLY
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THOUGH A TUTT POISED TO THE NORTHWEST HAS
BEGUN TO ERODE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE
DISTURBANCE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ASSESSED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS EFFECTING DEEP CONVECTION FIRING NEAR THE EXTREME
NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS FAIR DESPITE THE LACK OF A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC.
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