WPAC: TD GONI (0907/08W/PAGASA: JOLINA)

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater

It looks better.

[Ed Mahmoud]

ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZJUL2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 138.4E,
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/300600Z-310600ZJUL2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9N
137.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM WEST
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP POCKETS OF
CONVECTION FORMING TO THE WEST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS ELONGATED WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF
MULTIPLE CIRCULATION CENTERS, BUT IT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
CONSOLIDATION AS THE CONVECTION IS PULLING CLOSER TO THE CENTER AND
THE LLCC IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC. A 292101Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A
BROAD CIRCULATION OF APPROXIMATELY 700 NM WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
UNFLAGGED WINDS AROUND THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHEAST, AND NORTHEAST
QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH WILL PREVENT
POLE-WARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER EQUATORIAL AND WESTERLY OUTFLOW REGIONS
ARE FAVORABLE WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LLCC REMAINS
STRONG HINDERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZJUL2009-010600ZAUG2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N
137.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS WEAK AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS,
BASED ON A 302035Z QUIKSCAT PASS, BUT HAS MAINTAINED A WELL
ORGANIZED, BROAD STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IN THE PAST 4
HOURS THERE HAS BEEN A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, BUT
APPEARS TO BE GETTING SHEARED WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG WITH IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON INCREASED CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTLFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

More convection

[senorpepr]

PAGASA has upgraded the area to TS Jolina:

Severe Weather Bulletin Number THREE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "JOLINA"
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Friday, 31 July 2009

Tropical Storm "JOLINA" has maintained it strength as it moves towards Northern Luzon.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 500 kms East of Casiguran, Aurora

Coordinates: 16.4°N, 127.4°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 75 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 90 kph
Movement: West Northwest at 19 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Saturday evening:
180 km East of Tuguegarao, Cagayan or
200 km East Southeast of Aparri, Cagayan

Sunday evening:
180 km Northwest of Aparri, Cagayan or
150 km Southwest of Basco, Batanes

Monday evening:
370 km Northwest of Basco, Batanes

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)
Isabela
Cagayan
Babuyan
Calayan Group
Batanes
Aurora

Tropical Storm "Jolina" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional to frequent rains over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao particularly over the western sections which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.

Residents living in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under storm warning signal#1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslide.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.









JMA has also upgraded the area to a tropical depression:

WWJP25 RJTD 311800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 311800.
WARNING VALID 011800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 36N 141E 42N 143E 47N 152E 51N 158E 60N 165E 60N 180E 39N 180E 40N 160E 33N 140E 35N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 50N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 47N 167E ESE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 994 HPA AT 17N 129E WNW 15 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 41N 133E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 55N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 44N 154E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 33N 173E ESE SLOWLY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 39N 147E TO 41N 154E 42N 161E 43N 166E 44N 174E 43N 177E 42N 179E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

WWJP25 RJTD 010600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 41N 142E
47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 58N 170E 60N 180E 37N 180E 39N 160E 33N
142E 35N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 51N 155E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 47N 173E ESE 15 KT.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 53N 180E SE 20 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 992 HPA AT 17N 126E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 41N 132E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 54N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 44N 157E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 32N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 41N 150E TO 42N 160E 41N 171E 41N 175E 42N 180E
41N 175W.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

From PAGASA..

Severe Weather Bulletin Number SIX
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "JOLINA"
Issued at 4:45 p.m., Saturday, 01 August 2009

Tropical Storm "JOLINA" has slightly slowed down as it made landfall over Casiguran, Aurora.

Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) in the vicinity of Casiguran, Aurora or
90 kms East Southeast of Tuguegarao, Cagayan
Coordinates: 16.8°N,122.3°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 75 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 90 kph
Movement: West at 17 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Sunday afternoon:
190 kms West of Baguio City

Monday afternoon:
580 kms West of Iba, Zambales

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds)
Aurora
Isabela
Cagayan

Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)
Northern Quezon
Nueva Ecija
Bulacan
Tarlac
Zambales
Pampanga
Pangasinan
La Union
Abra
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Ifugao
Benguet
Mountain Province
Kalinga
Apayao
Ilocos Sur
Ilocos Norte
Batanes Group of Islands


Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 550 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.8°N,128.0°E).

Residents living in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslide.

Those living along the coast under signal#2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the storm.

Tropical Storm "Jolina" enhances the Southwest Monsoon, bringing frequent rains over Central and Southern Luzon and Visayas.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 127.0E TO 20.3N 121.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
312330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N
125.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.9N
128.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 125.9E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD OVERALL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION
STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND 16N 126E. A 311800Z SHIP OBSERVATION,
APPROXIMATELY 140 NM WEST OF THE CIRCULATION, REPORTED NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 22 KNOTS AND A MSLP OF 992 MB. FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM, A SHIP REPORTED (010000Z) EASTERLY WINDS OF 18 KNOTS AND A
MSLP OF 997 MB. THOUGH MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS MOSTLY INCONCLUSIVE AT
THIS TIME, THE AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS COUPLED WITH A 312149Z
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE AREA OF
MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUPPORTED BY AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT
HELPING TO PROVIDE DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTION
NEAR THE LLCC, STEADILY DROPPING CENTRAL PRESSURE, AND MOVEMENT INTO
A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020300Z.//
NNNN

[senorpepr]

WWJP25 RJTD 011200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 011200.
WARNING VALID 021200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 42N 142E
47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 36N 180E 40N 160E 36N 147E 33N
144E 35N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 33N 147E NNE 20 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 50N 155E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 46N 176E ESE 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 992 HPA AT 17N 123E WNW 15 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 41N 132E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 53N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 33N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 41N 155E TO 42N 160E 41N 169E 40N 176E 41N 176W
40N 171W.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

WWJP25 RJTD 011800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 011800.
WARNING VALID 021800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 42N 142E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 36N 180E 39N 160E 32N 141E 35N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 34N 148E NE 20 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 49N 157E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 45N 178E SE 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 994 HPA AT 18N 122E WNW 15 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 51N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 32N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 42N 155E TO 41N 164E 39N 173E 38N 180E 38N 173W.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=






Severe Weather Bulletin Number EIGHT
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "JOLINA"
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Sunday, 02 August 2009

Tropical Storm "JOLINA" has maintained its strength and is now over the South China Sea.

Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 230 km West Northwest of Laoag City
Coordinates: 18.7°N,118.1°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 75 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 90 kph
Movement: West Northwest at 22 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Sunday afternoon:
450 km West Northwest of Laoag City

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Abra
La union
Pangasinan

Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 800 km East Northeast of Luzon (19.0°N,130.5°E).

Residents living in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Tropical Storm "Jolina" continues to enhance the Southwest Monsoon, bringing occasional rains over the western sections of Luzon and Visayas.

Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

[HURAKAN]

Strong area of convection

[HURAKAN]

Typhoon2000.ph

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010251ZAUG2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 19.0N 118.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 012330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 118.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 125.9E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 118.5E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
BROAD CONVECTIVE TURNING WITH NO CLEAR INDICATIONS OF A CONSOLIDATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS
ALSO INCONCLUSIVE AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LLCC, THOUGH THE
012311Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS SOME CURVED BANDING AND HINTS AT A
CIRCULATION CENTER SOUTH OF 18N. AVAILABLE SCATTEROMETRY PASSES ALSO
MISSED THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH THEY CONTINUE TO DEPICT STRONGER
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS ON THE PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDI-
CATES THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF MINIMAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
SYSTEM HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS LOOKING TO SLOW THE SYSTEM BEFORE MOVING IT TO
THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. DUE TO CONTINUED DEEP
CONVECTION AND STRONG PERIPHERAL WINDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030300Z.//
NNNN

[beaufort12]

Interesting comment on a possible turn to a NE track. Guess this is too weak to really forecast anything.

[HURAKAN]

Still trying to get things together.

[senorpepr]

WWJP25 RJTD 021200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 992 HPA
AT 17.8N 116.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 41N 142E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 33N 180E 38N 162E 34N 151E 33N 142E 35N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 39N 152E NE 15 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 54N 150E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 47N 158E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 32N 164E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 52N 173E SSW 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 43N 152E TO 43N 157E 42N 162E 40N 168E 37N 174E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

Upgraded by JTWC to 08W...


111
TPPN12 PGTW 022102

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (S CHINA SEA)

B. 02/2030Z

C. 18.3N

D. 116.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 022300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 01
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 18.0N 116.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 116.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.2N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.0N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.8N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.5N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 22.5N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.5N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.3N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 116.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 021340Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE WRAPPING INTO THE
DEVELOPED LLCC. A NUMBER OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
CONFIRM A 30-KNOT SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 985 MB. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THERE APPEARS TO BE COMPETITION
BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA AND A
BUILDING ANTICYCONE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. AS FOR
INTENSITY, TD 08W WILL MOVE OVER AN AREA OF LESS FAVORABLE OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE NORTH-
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS MINIMIZED SOMEWHAT BY
A WEAK ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. THEREFORE, 08W SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY BEYOND
WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND
032100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
020251Z AUG 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
020300).//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Exposed