CPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANA (06E)

[HurricaneRobert]

It will be Lana if it gets a name since CPHC releases the next advisory.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Lana at next advisory


WHXX01 KMIA 301845
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1845 UTC THU JUL 30 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE LANA (EP062009) 20090730 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090730 1800 090731 0600 090731 1800 090801 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 140.6W 12.9N 143.6W 13.6N 146.5W 14.3N 149.7W
BAMD 12.1N 140.6W 12.8N 144.0W 13.7N 147.2W 14.9N 149.7W
BAMM 12.1N 140.6W 12.8N 143.6W 13.6N 146.4W 14.4N 149.1W
LBAR 12.1N 140.6W 12.8N 143.8W 13.2N 146.9W 13.6N 150.3W
SHIP 35KTS 45KTS 55KTS 58KTS
DSHP 35KTS 45KTS 55KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090801 1800 090802 1800 090803 1800 090804 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 153.0W 15.9N 159.4W 17.1N 165.5W 18.0N 171.0W
BAMD 16.0N 151.7W 18.8N 154.8W 21.3N 157.2W 22.9N 158.5W
BAMM 15.2N 151.7W 16.9N 156.2W 18.6N 160.6W 20.3N 164.6W
LBAR 13.5N 153.5W 13.9N 158.5W 15.1N 162.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 59KTS 51KTS 36KTS 26KTS
DSHP 59KTS 51KTS 36KTS 26KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 140.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 137.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 134.0W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 45NM

[Derek Ortt]

all of the BAMS are farther north this time

[HURAKAN]

This doesn't look like a minimal storm but a healthy storm.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUL 2009 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 12:03:59 N Lon : 140:27:59 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.8mb/ 34.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.4 2.8 4.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -67.6C Cloud Region Temp : -65.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

I know the raw is not the real story but a healthy raw is usually an indication that we're talking about a very organized system. Nice to see something like this in the tropics.

[x-y-no]

What time will the next advisory come out? Is CPHC on a different schedule?

[HURAKAN]

What time will the next advisory come out? Is CPHC on a different schedule?

Kika: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/ar ... d=CP012008

Looking at Kika's advisory, it's the same pattern [ 03, 09, 15, 21 utc ]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro says near miss by a fairly weak system.

[I-wall]

It looks like the cloud tops have warmed. Is this thing weakening? It also looks like a little slot of dry air is near the center. Kinda has that "fist" look that Ike had before slamming into Galveston.

[P.K.]

Named Lana.

WTPA41 PHFO 302031
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM LANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062009
ISSUED BY NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST THU JUL 30 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN
ORGANIZATION WITH A PROMINENT CONVECTIVE BAND COILING AROUND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS THE ADT
FROM UW-CIMSS...HAVE ALL INCREASED TO 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE
SYSTEM IS THEREFORE BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM LANA.

FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO WARM OCEAN WATERS AND
LOW SHEAR. IN FACT...THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS INDICATING A 50%
CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW SUCH QUICK STRENGTHENING BUT IS AT
THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND BRINGS LANA CLOSE TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY 72
HOURS AND SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING AT THAT TIME. THEREAFTER...THE
SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO ABATE...AND LANA IS EXPECTED TO BE A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR POSSIBLY A REMNANT LOW...BY DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16. LANA IS BEING STEERED QUICKLY
WESTWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTH...AND THIS RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND KEEP LANA ON A GENERAL WESTWARD
COURSE SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...ARE TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED AND HAVE SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE NUDGED
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE FORMED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN...IT HAS
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND IS THEREFORE GIVEN THE
CORRESPONDING NAME FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NAME LIST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 12.3N 141.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 12.5N 143.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 12.9N 146.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 13.2N 149.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 13.4N 152.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 14.0N 158.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 14.5N 163.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 15.0N 168.5W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Derek Ortt]

cloud tops are warming near the center it appears

[Category 5]

For the record I believe its still referred to as 06E.

[RL3AO]

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062009
ISSUED BY NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

Thats interesting.

[pojo]

We are keeping our eyes on this one... there is a potential threat to the islands and has already crossed 140W. No matter what, it will take us 2 days to get to Hawaii with one aircraft having the possibility of flying Lana inbound to Hickam AFB, HI.

[LaBreeze]

What effects should Lana have on the Hawaiian Islands?

[x-y-no]

For the record I believe its still referred to as 06E.

Nope, it's official

[RL3AO]

For the record I believe its still referred to as 06E.

Nope, it's official

TROPICAL STORM LANA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062009

[cycloneye]

Made the number change at title.

[HURAKAN]

Latest on Lana

[KWT]

Got a good shape but convection already seems on the downward turn, still if it does get a burst no reason why it won't strengthen further. I think the NHC are too slow in weakening this system however.