WPAC: TS MORAKOT (0908/09W/PAGASA: KIKO)

[Derek Ortt]

look at the size of the rain shield

This is the type of cyclone that can cause significant problems for Taiwan in that it may cause mudslides in the mountains

[beaufort12]

This is already an impressive-looking storm. Unfortunately for Taiwan, there's plenty of time and open water for further intensification. I guess we can hope for a more northerly track, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen. Atlantic-basin watchers, here's a storm worth following.

[CrazyC83]

The only saving grace is the fact that there isn't a well-defined eye yet, so rapid deepening is unlikely in the short term. But later on...who knows.

[Derek Ortt]

the worst effects on Taiwan are rainfall. This large spread out system is worse than a compact/intense cyclone

Taipei is in a valley and is very well constructed

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 082
WTPQ50 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0908 MORAKOT (0908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 23.4N 128.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 24.0N 123.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 080000UTC 25.3N 121.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 090000UTC 26.5N 119.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 100000UTC 28.0N 118.8E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
120HF 110000UTC 29.6N 118.2E 375NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (MORAKOT) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 23.1N 128.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 128.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.4N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.7N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.8N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 25.4N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.4N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 27.9N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 127.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MORAKOT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH OF
OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Continues to be a large storm

[Normandy]

Part of me has doubts that this becomes any stronger than 100 kts. It is so spread out that it will take forever for the core to intensify. Derek how strong do you think this gets?

[Derek Ortt]

probably 110-120KT is what I am thinking. However, do not focus on the intensity, focus on the rain. We could see 30 inches plus in the mountains of Taiwan

[Ptarmigan]

Continues to be a large storm

Kinda reminds me of Ike.

[HURAKAN]

Rainfall from Morakot already impacting Taiwan

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE MORAKOT
(2009-08-06 05:49:41 UTC)
==========================
HKO:
060000Z 23.4N 128.4E 75KT
(+024H) 23.9N 123.0E 85KT
(+048H) 24.5N 119.3E 80KT
(+072H) 25.3N 117.1E 65KT
JTWC:
060000Z 23.1N 128.0E 80KT
(+024H) 23.7N 123.3E 115KT
(+048H) 25.4N 120.7E 90KT
(+072H) 26.4N 119.3E 55KT
(+096H) 27.9N 117.7E 20KT
JMA:
060000Z 23.4N 128.3E 75KT
(+024H) 24.0N 123.9E 90KT
(+048H) 25.3N 121.8E 80KT
(+072H) 26.5N 119.7E 65KT
KMA:
060000Z 23.4N 128.3E 78KT
(+024H) 24.5N 123.7E 99KT
(+048H) 25.4N 121.2E 89KT
(+072H) 26.5N 118.9E 70KT
NMC:
060000Z 23.4N 128.3E 78KT
(+024H) 23.9N 123.6E 97KT
(+048H) 25.2N 121.3E 78KT
(+072H) 27.1N 119.6E 58KT
(+096H) 29.6N 119.2E 31KT
CWB:
060000Z 23.3N 128.1E 74KT
(+024H) 24.1N 123.4E ---KT
(+048H) 25.4N 120.0E ---KT
(+072H) 26.9N 117.7E ---KT

[Typhoon Hunter]

On airport bus from TPE to downtown Taipei surfing mobile broadband. Will relocate to NE coast early tomorrow morning.

[beaufort12]

Hey James, I'm feeling very envious but wish you the best. Take care and we're looking forward to the reports and of course some video.

[Cookie]

Hey James, I'm feeling very envious but wish you the best. Take care and we're looking forward to the reports and of course some video.

agreed

[Typhoon Hunter]

Thanks guys! Keeping safe will be my top priority as always.

This is best website for tracking Morakot now, http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/index.htm

Just click on the flashing typhoon image and you'll see lots of information - updated every hour. I'll be online throughout the storm so will post updates if I can.


edited by vbhoutex to fix link

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (MORAKOT) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 23.2N 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.4N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.6N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.0N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.9N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.5N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 27.6N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 125.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MORAKOT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE MORAKOT
(2009-08-06 13:30:07 UTC)
==========================
HKO:
060000Z 23.4N 128.4E 75KT
(+024H) 23.9N 123.0E 85KT
(+048H) 24.5N 119.3E 80KT
(+072H) 25.3N 117.1E 65KT
JTWC:
061200Z 23.2N 125.5E 80KT
(+024H) 23.6N 122.6E 90KT
(+048H) 24.9N 120.7E 70KT
(+072H) 26.5N 119.7E 45KT
(+096H) 27.6N 118.9E 20KT
JMA:
061200Z 23.4N 125.4E 75KT
(+024H) 24.3N 122.4E 85KT
(+048H) 26.1N 120.8E 70KT
(+072H) 27.3N 118.7E 55KT
KMA:
061200Z 23.4N 125.4E 78KT
(+024H) 24.3N 122.4E 87KT
(+048H) 25.7N 119.9E 70KT
(+072H) 28.2N 118.7E 47KT
NMC:
061200Z 23.6N 125.5E 78KT
(+024H) 24.5N 121.9E 97KT
(+048H) 26.1N 119.5E 68KT
(+072H) 27.0N 118.1E 45KT
CWB:
061200Z 23.5N 125.1E 78KT
(+024H) 24.7N 121.1E ---KT
(+048H) 26.5N 118.8E ---KT
(+072H) 28.5N 117.3E ---KT

[HURAKAN]

Organization seemed to have stopped

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 470
WTPQ50 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0908 MORAKOT (0908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 23.4N 125.4E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 24.3N 122.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 081200UTC 26.1N 120.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 091200UTC 27.3N 118.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 101200UTC 29.5N 118.7E 240NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
120HF 111200UTC 31.5N 119.3E 300NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY =
NNNN