CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA (08E)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#381 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:40 am


000
WTPA32 PHFO 091439
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
500 AM HST SUN AUG 09 2009

...FELICIA DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...BUT STILL AIMED
TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...AND FOR ALL OF MAUI COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS
OF MAUI...KAHOOLAWE...LANAI...AND MOLOKAI. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE OF HAWAII...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF OAHU...KAUAI...AND NIIHAU...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FELICIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 146.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 595 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 770 MILES EAST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...FELICIA
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...OR OVER...THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY LATE
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH FELICIA IS STILL FAR EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING...A BUILDING SWELL GENERATED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT EAST FACING SHORES OF THE EASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
LATER TODAY. LARGE SURF IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO EAST FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.6N 146.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON/WROE
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#382 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:50 am

Image

RECON en route to Felicia. I would like to see what they find because in their last mission the first VM measured 984 mb and the last one 994 mb, 10 mb in one mission. Since then Felicia has continued to deteriorate at a rapid paste. I don't understand why they're using the last measured central pressure and keep the winds at 70 mph. Looking at that image I find hard to visualize 70 mph winds.
0 likes   

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5792
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM FELICIA (08E)

#383 Postby MGC » Sun Aug 09, 2009 10:04 am

Felicia is looking ragged this morning. I would place the intensity at 55KTS. At this rapid weakening pace Hawaii might only see at TD.....MGC
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#384 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 09, 2009 11:04 am

Image

Waiting for RECON to find a weak tropical storm or depression.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37049
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM FELICIA (08E)

#385 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 09, 2009 11:50 am

Dying fast. Poor Felicia.
0 likes   

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM FELICIA (08E)

#386 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 09, 2009 11:58 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SEASON_CANCELED
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 887
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:17 am
Location: 8 Bit Charlie Sheen

Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM FELICIA (08E)

#387 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sun Aug 09, 2009 12:47 pm

The Hawaiin forcefield claims another tropical victim. :ggreen:



Has a major hurricane ever hit hawaii from the east? I thought hawaii was only vulnerable from the south.
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#388 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Aug 09, 2009 1:07 pm

Wow! Felicia went down quick!
0 likes   

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM FELICIA (08E)

#389 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 09, 2009 3:37 pm

Down to 55 mph as of lastest advisory...weakening rapidly...



TROPICAL STORM FELICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
800 AM HST SUN AUG 09 2009

...TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...AND FOR ALL OF MAUI COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS
OF MAUI...KAHOOLAWE...LANAI...AND MOLOKAI.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE OF HAWAII...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF OAHU...KAUAI...AND NIIHAU...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FELICIA.

AT 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA
WAS LOCATED BY AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 20.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 146.5 WEST OR ABOUT 555 MILES EAST OF HILO...
HAWAII AND ABOUT 735 MILES EAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...OR
OVER...THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY LATE MONDAY.

THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA ARE NEAR 55
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001
MB...29.56 INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH FELICIA IS STILL EAST OF THE HAWAIIIAN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING...A BUILDING SWELL GENERATED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT EAST FACING SHORES OF THE EASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
LATER TODAY. LARGE SURF IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO EAST FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.9N 146.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL/KNABB
0 likes   

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM FELICIA (08E)

#390 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 09, 2009 3:42 pm

Appearance on satellite is rapidly deteriorating...

Image
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#391 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 09, 2009 3:44 pm

Recon supports an intensity higher than 45 kt though...
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re:

#392 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 09, 2009 3:56 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Recon supports an intensity higher than 45 kt though...


Edit: nvm. CPHC has it at 55mph.

Image
0 likes   

islandgirl78
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 4
Joined: Fri Jul 10, 2009 9:41 pm
Location: Oahu, Hawaii

#393 Postby islandgirl78 » Sun Aug 09, 2009 4:25 pm

With the track moving slightly more to the north, will Oahu be put under a Tropical Storm watch as well?
0 likes   

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re:

#394 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 09, 2009 4:32 pm

Current forecast is for Felicia to be a depression when she reaches hawaii....and with anticipation of weakening to continue, any additional tropical storm watches would be issued only as a 'precaution'. I would say right, now there is a 50-50 chance Oahu will be put under a ts watch.

Right now, sustained ts force winds seem unlikely...but some higher peaks could see gusts to ts force in passing squalls.

Image



Right now, less than 20% chance of ts winds anywhere in Hawaii...

Image



islandgirl78 wrote:With the track moving slightly more to the north, will Oahu be put under a Tropical Storm watch as well?
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#395 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 09, 2009 6:27 pm

Image

Image

The 2nd .gif is interesting.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#396 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 09, 2009 8:24 pm

Image

The ghost of Felicia
0 likes   

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5792
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM FELICIA (08E)

#397 Postby MGC » Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:45 pm

Dispite the shear convection is building back towards the center of circulation. If this trend continues Felicia might hold on to TS force intensity at landfall in Hawaii. I would expect Oahu to be put under a TS watch soon.....MGC
0 likes   

User avatar
hawaiigirl
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 51
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2009 6:38 pm

Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM FELICIA (08E)

#398 Postby hawaiigirl » Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:53 pm

Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM FELICIA (08E)

#399 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:54 pm

Tropical Storm Watch expanded to other islands in the chain

000
WTPA32 PHFO 100251
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
500 PM HST SUN AUG 09 2009

...FELICIA SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN MOTION AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ISLAND OF OAHU. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...FOR ALL OF MAUI
COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...KAHOOLAWE...
LANAI...AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN KAUAI AND NIIHAU SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FELICIA.

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 445 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 610 MILES
EAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...
THE CENTER OF FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...OR OVER...THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOWED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FELICIA COULD STILL REACH THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AS EITHER A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH FELICIA IS STILL EAST OF THE HAWAIIIAN ISLANDS...A
BUILDING SWELL GENERATED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS ALREADY
REACHED THE EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY AND WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REMAINING HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

REGARDLESS OF THE STRENGTH OF FELICIA WHEN IT REACHES THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR AND FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.2N 148.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA/KNABB

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
500 PM HST SUN AUG 09 2009

DESPITE STRONG SHEAR AFFECTING FELICIA...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC CONTINUED TO INDICATE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINING LEVEL AT 1002 MB. A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 56 KT AT 850 MB WAS OBSERVED 40 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. ALSO..A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AROUND
2300 UTC...BUT RADIALLY JUST INWARD FROM THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...
MEASURED A MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND OF 46 KT. STRONGER WINDS ARE
LIKELY STILL OCCURRING WITHIN THE CONVECTION FARTHER NORTHEAST
AS SHOWN BY AN EARLIER SONDE. BASED ON THESE DATA AND A SUPPORTING
DVORAK CI NUMBER FROM CPHC OF 3.0...45 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SINCE THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN FULLY EXPOSED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POSITION AND MOTION ESTIMATES...
CURRENTLY 280 DEG AT 12 KT. FELICIA IS A SHEARED SYSTEM AND ITS
MOTION IS PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISPARITY BETWEEN
THE TRUSTED DYNAMICAL MODELS REGARDING TRACK. THE GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP FELICIA NORTH OF THE STATE. GFDL AND HWRF CLIP THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND NOGAPS IS THE SOUTHERN TRACK IN THE
GROUP. NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS PUT THE CENTER OF FELICIA OVER
THE BIG ISLAND. THIS DIFFERENCE IN TRACK HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
EXPECTED CONDITIONS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTION TRANSLATES TO MUCH LOWER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE STATE. THE
REMAINING FORECAST AIDS SUGGEST STRONGER WIND AND RAINFALL
IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY FROM MAUI WESTWARD TO KAUAI. IT IS EXPECTED
THAT FELICIA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLIES AS A SHEARED SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS PUTS
THE TRACK DOWN THE MID-SECTION OF THE STATE AND IS CONSISTENT WITH
BOTH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

IN TERMS OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AN ANTICYCLONE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII AND
A LOW IS CENTERED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER FELICIA WHICH HAS HELPED SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION. AS FELICIA MOVES WESTWARD...IT WILL LEAVE THE AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE AND BE UNDER STEADY HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER LOW LEVEL
EASTERLIES...THUS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. THE PRESENCE OF THIS
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FELICIA DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMING
SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS FELICIA
AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY THROUGH 48 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE GFDL
AND HWRF...THEN INDICATES CONTINUED WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY
120 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 21.2N 148.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 21.2N 150.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 21.2N 152.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 21.3N 154.8W 35 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 21.4N 156.9W 35 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 21.9N 161.2W 30 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 22.9N 165.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 15/0000Z 24.4N 169.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA/KNABB

0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#400 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 09, 2009 10:51 pm

I think it should impact the islands as a Tropical Storm.

This has to be the most craziest, stubborn storm that I havent seen in a while...
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 25 guests