CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA (08E)

[jinftl]

What a difference a few days can make...not even sure we still have a system at this point...how will hawaii see rain from this is a mystery. Unless there is some redevelopment of convection overnight, i would expect all ts watches to be dropped by morning. The fact that we are still talking about 'watches' at this point, and not 'warnings', is significant.....they are close to being dropped altogether i would hazard to guess. A few gusts to 40mph or so doesn't merit a ts warning.

[Kingarabian]

What a difference a few days can make...not even sure we still have a system at this point...how will hawaii see rain from this is a mystery. Unless there is some redevelopment of convection overnight, i would expect all ts watches to be dropped by morning. The fact that we are still talking about 'watches' at this point, and not 'warnings', is significant.....they are close to being dropped altogether i would hazard to guess. A few gusts to 40mph or so doesn't merit a ts warning.

Inn approx one hour we will see an advisory. See what they have to say.

Haha look at this:



Tropical Depression One-C looks obviously waay more organized.

Edit: And the 8:00 Hawaiian time Pre Advisory:

000
WTPA32 PHFO 110557
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
800 PM HST MON AUG 10 2009

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OAHU AND FOR ALL OF
MAUI COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...KAHOOLAWE...
LANAI...AND MOLOKAI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

AT 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.6 WEST...OR
ABOUT 175 MILES...EAST-NORTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 340
MILES...EAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...
THE CENTER OF FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WITH RAINBANDS REACHING THE ISLANDS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

A LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY FELICIA IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. ALSO...REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF FELICIA WHEN IT
REACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.9N 152.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CRAIG

[Kingarabian]

takes time for the surface winds to weaken

000
WTPA42 PHFO 110859
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
1100 PM HST MON AUG 10 2009

FELICIA CONSISTS OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A TIMELY QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS SHOWED 35 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
CYCLONE. THE AREA OF THE 35 KT WINDS HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY IN
COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS OVERPASS...INDICATING A CONTINUED
WEAKENING TREND. A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PHFO AT 0530 UTC
CALLED FOR WINDS UP TO 30 KT WINDS. HAVE KEPT FELICIA AS A TROPICAL
STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KT WITH THIS PACKAGE...BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA.

CURRENT MOTION CONTINUES TO THE WEST...270 DECREES...AT 9 KT. THE
COURSE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE...TAKING FELICIA ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE
STATE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A RELATIVELY COMPACT
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE ENVELOPE SPREADS BEYOND 36
HOURS...BUT MOST AIDES AGREE IN TURNING THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW TO
THE RIGHT TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TURN
WILL TAKE PLACE AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.

THE DOWNWARD TRENDING INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT
FELICIA IS IN AN UNFRIENDLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND WILL REMAIN
SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LATEST UW-CIMMS
VERTICAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE WAS ABOUT 30 KT OUT OF THE WEST...WHICH IS
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY INTENSIFICATION...IN SPITE OF SLIGHTLY WARMER
SSTS AHEAD OF FELICIA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
FELICIA TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND TO A REMNANT
LOW BY 48 HOURS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...FELICIA MAY
UNDERGO MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN FORECAST IF THE CIRCULATION SPINS
DOWN FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 20.9N 153.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 21.0N 154.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 21.1N 156.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 21.3N 158.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 13/0600Z 21.5N 160.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/0600Z 22.2N 163.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 15/0600Z 23.6N 167.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 16/0600Z 25.4N 170.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CRAIG



Still a storm... The poor thing is limping.

[HURAKAN]

They may want to still call it a tropical storm but it's more a remnant LLC than anything else.

[HURAKAN]

000
WTPA32 PHFO 111425
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
500 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2009

...FELICIA DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

AS A PRECAUTION...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
OAHU AND FOR ALL OF MAUI COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF
MAUI...KAHOOLAWE...LANAI...AND MOLOKAI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.1 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES EAST OF KAHULUI HAWAII AND ABOUT 245 MILES EAST OF
HONOLULU HAWAII.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELICIA
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

A LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY FELICIA WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH TODAY. ALSO...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.9N 154.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CRAIG

[clfenwi]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2009

...FELICIA DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT STILL COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS...

AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR OAHU AND
FOR ALL OF MAUI COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...
KAHOOLAWE...LANAI...AND MOLOKAI...HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF DISSIPATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 154.7 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF KAHULUI HAWAII AND
ABOUT 210 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

THE DISSIPATING DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH.
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD
OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MOSTLY
OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.6N 154.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2009

FELICIA HAS LOST ALL OF THE KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...HAVING PRODUCED NO DEEP CONVECTION SINCE YESTERDAY...AND
NOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED AS IT RUNS UP
AGAINST THE TERRAIN OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...UNTIL THE LOW COMPLETELY DISSIPATES.

THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING A BROAD SWATH OF RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER...SO IT STILL POSES A RAINFALL AND FLOODING HAZARD TO
PORTIONS OF HAWAII. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO 30
KT...BUT LIKELY ONLY IN AN AREA WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER OVER THE
WATERS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE PROCESS
OF SPINNING DOWN...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS AN
ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN THE MAXIMUM WINDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 20.6N 154.7W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 12/0600Z 20.4N 156.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 12/1800Z 20.4N 157.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 13/0600Z 20.6N 159.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

Bye Felicia