CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA (08E)

[HURAKAN]

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invest_ep992009.invest
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 99, 2009, DB, O, 2009080312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP992009
EP, 99, 2009080312, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1208W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[HURAKAN]

98E is too close and looks like it's winning the family struggle to survive

[HURAKAN]

408
WHXX01 KMIA 031302
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1302 UTC MON AUG 3 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992009) 20090803 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090803 1200 090804 0000 090804 1200 090805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 120.8W 10.4N 122.3W 11.1N 123.5W 12.0N 124.7W
BAMD 10.0N 120.8W 10.4N 123.0W 10.9N 125.0W 11.6N 126.9W
BAMM 10.0N 120.8W 10.4N 122.7W 10.9N 124.4W 11.7N 126.1W
LBAR 10.0N 120.8W 10.3N 123.4W 11.0N 126.2W 12.1N 129.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090805 1200 090806 1200 090807 1200 090808 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 126.0W 15.4N 128.8W 16.8N 132.8W 18.4N 137.6W
BAMD 12.5N 128.7W 14.0N 131.7W 14.7N 135.1W 15.4N 139.2W
BAMM 12.6N 127.5W 14.3N 130.0W 15.4N 133.0W 16.9N 136.8W
LBAR 13.4N 131.7W 16.4N 136.2W 18.3N 140.2W 15.1N 142.6W
SHIP 60KTS 76KTS 76KTS 71KTS
DSHP 60KTS 76KTS 76KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 120.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 118.4W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 116.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

373
ABPZ20 KNHC 031743
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL
BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[HURAKAN]

Exposed but it has a nice circulation

[HURAKAN]

481
WHXX01 KMIA 031849
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1849 UTC MON AUG 3 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992009) 20090803 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090803 1800 090804 0600 090804 1800 090805 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.9N 121.0W 11.5N 122.3W 12.4N 123.6W 13.4N 125.1W
BAMD 10.9N 121.0W 11.5N 123.0W 12.2N 124.9W 13.1N 126.8W
BAMM 10.9N 121.0W 11.4N 122.7W 12.1N 124.3W 13.0N 126.1W
LBAR 10.9N 121.0W 11.6N 123.0W 12.7N 125.3W 14.0N 127.7W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090805 1800 090806 1800 090807 1800 090808 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 126.6W 16.6N 129.9W 18.2N 134.4W 19.8N 139.1W
BAMD 14.2N 128.6W 16.0N 132.3W 17.4N 137.0W 19.0N 142.3W
BAMM 14.1N 127.6W 15.9N 130.8W 17.3N 134.9W 18.9N 139.8W
LBAR 15.4N 130.1W 18.0N 134.6W 19.5N 139.9W 17.2N 144.9W
SHIP 53KTS 62KTS 60KTS 55KTS
DSHP 53KTS 62KTS 60KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 121.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 119.9W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 118.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032333
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY-FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E...LOCATED ABOUT 705 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...
ADVISORIES MAY BE INITIATED LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/BRENNAN

[I-wall]

Convection firing near the center. I think we're gonna have TD8 tonight.

[cycloneye]

Convection firing near the center. I think we're gonna have TD8 tonight.

You were right on.

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[RL3AO]

Attention Storm2k customers. Will a Dr. Fujiwhara please report to guest services. Thank you.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 040055
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0055 UTC TUE AUG 4 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

[b]TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT (EP082009) 20090804 0000 UTC

00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090804 0000 090804 1200 090805 0000 090805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 122.2W 12.4N 123.6W 13.2N 125.1W 14.2N 126.7W
BAMD 11.7N 122.2W 12.4N 124.2W 13.2N 126.2W 14.2N 128.1W
BAMM 11.7N 122.2W 12.3N 123.9W 13.1N 125.7W 14.1N 127.3W
LBAR 11.7N 122.2W 12.5N 124.7W 13.7N 127.5W 15.0N 130.1W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 44KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090806 0000 090807 0000 090808 0000 090809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 128.2W 17.2N 131.6W 19.0N 136.3W 20.8N 141.5W
BAMD 15.3N 129.9W 16.9N 133.6W 18.1N 137.9W 19.6N 142.4W
BAMM 15.1N 128.9W 16.9N 132.1W 18.5N 136.3W 20.1N 140.8W
LBAR 16.5N 132.4W 19.0N 136.6W 19.8N 141.3W 17.1N 144.4W
SHIP 62KTS 69KTS 64KTS 55KTS
DSHP 62KTS 69KTS 64KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 122.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 120.0W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 117.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[/b]

[brunota2003]

Wow...both are close and both are forecast (by the SHIPS/DSHPS) to become hurricanes? Heh.

[Derek Ortt]

this one may become more intense than indicated. I expect a track slightly south of what the guidance is indicating due to what will soon be Enrique to the east. This will keep this thing over warmer waters

Too soon to know if this will threaten Hawaii

[cycloneye]

WTPZ23 KNHC 040236
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
0300 UTC TUE AUG 04 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 122.7W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 122.7W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 122.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 12.6N 124.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.6N 125.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.8N 127.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.9N 129.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 18.0N 139.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 18.5N 145.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 122.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

1
WTPZ43 KNHC 040240
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 03 2009

CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS INCREASED WITH THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED WELL
SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5 AND 1.5...
RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED
ONLY ABOUT 500-600 NM WEST OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE...HOWEVER THE
CYCLONES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCING EACH OTHER...AND THIS
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT ANY INTERACTION WILL BE MINIMAL. THE FLOW
AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED WEST OF THE DEPRESSION WILL
PROVIDE A BIT OF A POLEWARD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK OVER THE FIRST
36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
DEPRESSION...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONING AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.

THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SSTS OF 28-29C AND SHEAR OF 10 KT OR LESS
FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL
ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS BY
SHOWING WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING AND
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. WHILE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT...THE INTENSITY
PROBABILITIES SHOW A 35 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD
REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY AT 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 11.9N 122.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 12.6N 124.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 13.6N 125.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 14.8N 127.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 15.9N 129.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 18.0N 139.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 18.5N 145.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[clfenwi]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
0900 UTC TUE AUG 04 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 123.9W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 123.9W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 123.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.0N 127.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.0N 131.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 18.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 18.0N 146.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 123.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BUT
LATEST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS
STILL LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE
OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS
DISRUPTED IN THE EASTERN SIDE BY THE OUTFLOW OF ENRIQUE...LOCATED
NOT TOO FAR TO THE EAST. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH AND
ARE 2.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
KEPT AT 30 KNOTS AT THIS TIME...BUT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TODAY. DESPITE THE INTERACTION WITH ENRIQUE....WHICH
COULD BE A INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT FACTOR...BOTH SSTS AND SHEAR ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND
SLOW WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SLOW INTENSIFICATION
AND WEAKENING TRENDS SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP TROPICAL EASTERLY
FLOW...BUT BOTH THE EFFECT OF ENRIQUE AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE DEPRESSION COULD SLOW DOWN A
LITTLE DURING THAT PERIOD. THEREAFTER...ALL BETS ARE THAT THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WILL REBUILD AS ENRIQUE
WEAKENS...AND THE CYCLONE WILL TURN MORE TO THE WEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY-PACKED TRACK
GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 12.3N 123.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 13.0N 125.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 14.0N 127.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 16.0N 131.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 18.0N 140.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 09/0600Z 18.0N 146.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

TD 8-E meet Enrique, Enrique meet TD-8

[HURAKAN]

EP, 08, 2009080412, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1245W, 40, 1001, TS, 34

Buenos días Felicia, if I'm correct!

[HURAKAN]

082
WHXX01 KMIA 041252
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1252 UTC TUE AUG 4 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA (EP082009) 20090804 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090804 1200 090805 0000 090805 1200 090806 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 124.5W 13.2N 126.1W 14.0N 127.7W 15.0N 129.2W
BAMD 12.5N 124.5W 13.4N 126.6W 14.4N 128.3W 15.4N 129.9W
BAMM 12.5N 124.5W 13.4N 126.2W 14.3N 127.6W 15.3N 129.0W
LBAR 12.5N 124.5W 13.5N 126.8W 14.9N 129.0W 16.4N 131.3W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 55KTS 64KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 55KTS 64KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090806 1200 090807 1200 090808 1200 090809 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 130.6W 17.8N 134.5W 19.7N 140.1W 21.2N 146.1W
BAMD 16.2N 131.5W 17.4N 135.4W 18.7N 140.6W 20.1N 145.5W
BAMM 16.3N 130.5W 18.2N 134.3W 19.9N 139.7W 21.3N 145.0W
LBAR 17.7N 133.2W 19.3N 137.2W 19.2N 142.3W 17.8N 147.7W
SHIP 70KTS 73KTS 67KTS 58KTS
DSHP 70KTS 73KTS 67KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 124.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 122.2W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 120.0W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

SHIPS seems to think this will become Hurricane Felicia...we shall see!