CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA (08E)

[MGC]

It looks like Felicia is holding it own currently. It will be interesting to see what the next recon finds intensity wise. I would expect slow weakening as the cyclone moves almost due west. It appears that the center of the hurricane is just north of 20 degrees N. Shear appears to get stronger closer to the Hawaiian Islands. I think the people in Hawaii should prepare for at least a TS......MGC

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Watch issued

000
WTPA32 PHFO 090257
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
500 PM HST SAT AUG 08 2009

...FELICIA MARCHING WESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...AND FOR ALL OF MAUI COUNTY...WHICH
INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...KAHOOLAWE...LANAI...AND MOLOKAI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE OF HAWAII...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF OAHU...KAUAI...AND NIIHAU...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FELICIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR THESE AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.4 WEST OR ABOUT
760 MILES EAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 940 MILES...EAST OF
HONOLULU HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS BY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELICIA
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND FELICIA
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.1N 143.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/R BALLARD

WTPA42 PHFO 090258
TCDCP2

HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
500 PM HST SAT AUG 08 2009

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FELICIA HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY
SINCE THE LAST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FIX AT ABOUT 2330 UTC...
WHEN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 982 MB. THE EARLIER
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 85 KT AT 700 MB AROUND 2000 UTC...
CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 76 KT AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH DVORAK CI
NUMBERS OF 4.5...PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY AT 75 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS SLIGHTLY
RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
SUGGEST THAT WIND SHEAR IS HAVING ANY EFFECT ON THE CYCLONE YET.

THE LONG-TERM HEADING OVER A 12-HOUR PERIOD IS ABOUT 285-290
DEGREES...BUT THE LAST COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES AND RECENT GOES
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION THAT IS JUST NORTH OF
DUE WEST AT ABOUT 13 KT. SOME OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS AND
HWRF...FORECAST FELICIA TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE BEFORE
TURNING DUE WEST...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHERS CALL FOR THE HURRICANE
TO MOVE AT 270 DEGREES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEYOND 24 HOURS
OR SO...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A DUE WESTWARD HEADING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH TRACKS
CROSSING HAWAII AT SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LATITUDES. THE NEW OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST GOES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
REPRESENTS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. SINCE THERE ARE RELIABLE MODELS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE CENTER OF FELICIA COULD PASS OVER ANY
PORTION OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

FELICIA IS TAKING ITS TIME TO EMBARK UPON A SERIOUS WEAKENING TREND.
THE UNDERLYING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 25
CELSIUS AND WILL GRADUALLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGHOUT
THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WESTERLY SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND MAXIMIZE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ABOUT
THE TIME FELICIA IS ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS RESPOND TO THESE FACTORS BY FORECASTING
GRADUAL WEAKENING...BUT ALL OF THEM HOLD ON TO A TROPICAL STORM
THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND SOME EVEN TO 72 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH INTENSITY FORECASTING...IT IS IMPORTANT
TO POINT OUT THE INTENSITY PROBABILITIES ACCOMPANYING THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE. THAT PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THERE IS ABOUT A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FELICIA BEING A TROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS
VERY NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WITH ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IT BEING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF IT
BEING A HURRICANE.

THE NEW FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SINCE THE LEAD TIME FOR
WATCHES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN IS 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 20.1N 143.4W 75 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 20.4N 145.4W 65 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 20.5N 148.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 20.5N 151.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 20.5N 153.7W 45 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 20.5N 159.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 21.0N 164.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 22.0N 170.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/R BALLARD

[HURAKAN]

So far it looks good but we will need to wait and see how it reacts when shear increases

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Storm Watch issued

000
WTPA32 PHFO 090257
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
500 PM HST SAT AUG 08 2009

...FELICIA MARCHING WESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...AND FOR ALL OF MAUI COUNTY...WHICH
INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...KAHOOLAWE...LANAI...AND MOLOKAI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE OF HAWAII...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF OAHU...KAUAI...AND NIIHAU...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FELICIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR THESE AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.4 WEST OR ABOUT
760 MILES EAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 940 MILES...EAST OF
HONOLULU HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS BY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELICIA
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND FELICIA
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.1N 143.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/R BALLARD

Yeah... Felicia is really holding its ground. There is now a 10 percent chance of it being a Hurricane by the time it reaches Hawaii, since the shear is not at work at the time being.

[HURAKAN]

000
FGHW70 PHFO 090257
ESFHFO
HIZ001>011-091500-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
500 PM HST SAT AUG 8 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU KAUAI AND NIIHAU...

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...

THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
INDICATES THAT FELICIA WILL BE NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLAND CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF ITS
INTENSITY...FELICIA COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED...THE ONSET...AND DURATION OF HEAVY
RAINS...AS WELL AS THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. ALL OF THESE ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK FELICIA ULTIMATELY
TAKES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA OR THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS
FROM FELICIA.

AN UPDATED OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM HST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

$$

BURKE

[Kingarabian]

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphic ... 30_sat.gif

[HURAKAN]

Holding

[HURAKAN]

Lets hope Felicia produces a lot of rain for Hawaii because they need it.

[HURAKAN]

Internally Felicia is going down

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE FELICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
800 PM HST SAT AUG 08 2009

...FELICIA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...AND FOR ALL OF MAUI COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS
OF MAUI...KAHOOLAWE...LANAI...AND MOLOKAI. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE OF HAWAII...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF OAHU...KAUAI...AND NIIHAU...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF FELICIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

AT 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 20.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.0 WEST OR ABOUT 720 MILES EAST OF HILO...
HAWAII AND ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS BY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELICIA IS
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
FELICIA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.2N 144.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON/WROE

[Kingarabian]

Whats your guys' forecast for Felicia as of now? I am tired of listening to different news outlets with different information. One has Felicia at 90 mph. One has it at 75. On has it at 80. CPHC has it at 80? But shows it at 85...

[I-wall]

Whats your guys' forecast for Felicia as of now? I am tired of listening to different news outlets with different information. One has Felicia at 90 mph. One has it at 75. On has it at 80. CPHC has it at 80? But shows it at 85...

Personally, I think Felicia might already be below hurricane strength based on the latest satellite imagery. We all know how devastating even a weak tropical storm can be though. Hawaii residents should prepared for some nasty weather and possible flooding IMO.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 08 2009

HURRICANE FELICIA APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MICROWAVE DATA AND HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA. THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 0729 UTC INDICATED
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FILLED TO 990 MB. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WERE 80 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 700 MB AROUND 0600
UTC. THERE WERE ALSO SFMR WINDS FOR THE SURFACE OF UP TO 69 KT
AROUND THE SAME TIME. A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL ALSO
INDICATED THE AVERAGE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ADJUSTED TO THE SURFACE ARE
NEAR 63-68 KT. THESE AIRCRAFT DATA...ALONG WITH DVORAK CI
NUMBERS OF 4.0...INDICATE THAT FELICIA HAS WEAKENED TO 70 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. CONSIDERABLE WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS HAS OCCURRED
IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ACCORDING TO THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
DATA FROM SEVERAL SATELLITES WITH MICROWAVE DATA FROM AROUND 0300
UTC INDICATED THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WAS STARTING TO BE DISPLACED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE APPARENT CENTER...WHICH MAY SUGGEST INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS STARTING TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE.

THE CURRENT MOTION OF FELICIA IS 280/13...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS 12 HOUR MOTION. SOME OF THE MODELS FORECAST FELICIA TO GAIN
A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE BEFORE TURNING DUE WEST...WHILE MOST OF THE
OTHERS CALL FOR THE HURRICANE TO MOVE AT 270 DEGREES WITHIN 12 TO
24. BEYOND 24 HOURS OR SO...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A
DUE WESTWARD HEADING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH TRACKS CROSSING THE MAIN HAWAII ISLANDS AT
VARYING LATITUDES. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES
DOWN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THERE WAS A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WAS ALSO SLOWED SLIGHTLY
BEYOND 36 HOURS...SINCE THE GUIDANCE WAS QUITE A BIT SLOWER AT THAT
TIME. NOTE THAT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF VERY RELIABLE MODELS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THEREFORE...THE CENTER OF
FELICIA COULD PASS OVER ANY PORTION OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

FELICIA APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN THE EXPECTED WEAKENING TREND. THE
UNDERLYING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR ABOUT 25
CELSIUS...BUT THESE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 10 KT...AND IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 20 KT WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS
ABOUT THE TIME FELICIA IS ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS RESPOND TO THESE FACTORS BY
FORECASTING GRADUAL WEAKENING...BUT ALL OF THEM HOLD ON TO A
TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND SOME EVEN TO 72 HOURS. THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWN FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH INTENSITY FORECASTING...IT IS IMPORTANT
TO POINT OUT THE INTENSITY PROBABILITIES ACCOMPANYING THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE. THAT PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FELICIA BEING A TROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS
VERY NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ABOUT A 45 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IT BEING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SINCE THE LEAD TIME FOR
WARNINGS IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN IS 36 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 20.3N 144.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 20.7N 146.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 20.8N 149.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 20.8N 152.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 20.6N 154.6W 40 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 20.7N 159.4W 30 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 21.1N 164.3W 25 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 21.9N 168.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON/WROE

[HURAKAN]

I can't believe they still have it as a hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

I can't believe they still have it as a hurricane.

Winds are 75 mph now.

[HURAKAN]

All was good until shear entered in the picture.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1242 UTC SUN AUG 9 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA (EP082009) 20090809 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090809 1200 090810 0000 090810 1200 090811 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.5N 145.3W 21.2N 147.9W 21.4N 150.4W 21.8N 152.5W
BAMD 20.5N 145.3W 21.1N 146.7W 21.4N 147.6W 21.6N 147.8W
BAMM 20.5N 145.3W 21.1N 147.3W 21.4N 148.7W 21.6N 149.7W
LBAR 20.5N 145.3W 21.0N 147.1W 21.5N 148.8W 22.1N 150.5W
SHIP 60KTS 45KTS 31KTS 20KTS
DSHP 60KTS 45KTS 31KTS 20KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090811 1200 090812 1200 090813 1200 090814 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.7N 154.3W 21.9N 158.5W 22.4N 162.4W 22.6N 165.4W
BAMD 21.9N 147.2W 22.7N 144.2W 26.9N 142.3W 30.9N 144.8W
BAMM 21.6N 150.4W 20.9N 151.4W 19.7N 153.0W 17.9N 154.9W
LBAR 22.8N 151.9W 24.3N 154.2W 25.1N 155.5W 25.1N 156.7W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.5N LONCUR = 145.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 19.9N LONM12 = 142.7W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 19.2N LONM24 = 140.1W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 65NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 90NM

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 AUG 2009 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 20:27:33 N Lon : 145:37:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1001.1mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.4 2.2 1.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.1mb

Center Temp : +10.9C Cloud Region Temp : -11.1C

Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

[HURAKAN]

Everything that goes up must come down!

[somethingfunny]

I imagine a plopping noise, like a rock falling into the ocean.

Hopefully Hawaii will still get some nice rains from the remnants.