WPAC: TS ETAU (0909/10W)

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Re: WPAC: TS ETAU (0909/10W)

#41 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 10, 2009 10:19 pm

Image

WTPN33 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (ETAU) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 33.2N 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 33.2N 138.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 33.6N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 34.0N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 34.4N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 36.6N 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 33.3N 139.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SPED UP AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND
120300Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TS ETAU (0909/10W)

#42 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 10, 2009 10:21 pm

Image

ZCZC 204
WTPQ51 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0909 ETAU (0909) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 32.9N 138.6E FAIR
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 70NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 34.3N 146.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE E 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 130000UTC 34.7N 149.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 140000UTC 36.1N 153.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 150000UTC 39.3N 159.1E 350NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
120HF 160000UTC 41.7N 168.5E 450NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT =
NNNN
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#43 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 10, 2009 10:25 pm

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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 11, 2009 7:31 am

ZCZC 580
WTPQ21 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0909 ETAU (0909) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 33.4N 141.8E FAIR
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 70NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 33.2N 149.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 130600UTC 36.3N 153.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 140600UTC 40.0N 158.8E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNNN


Image
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#45 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 11, 2009 7:36 am

Image

WTPN33 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (ETAU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 33.4N 140.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 33.4N 140.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 32.9N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 32.7N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 33.4N 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 34.4N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 36.8N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 33.3N 141.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS CONSOLIDATING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING
AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 110740Z 91 GHZ SSMIS
IMAGE INDICATES A NARROW REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AS
WELL AS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC. CURRENT INTENSITY AS A WEAK
TROPICAL STORM IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND
SAB. A 110100Z ASCAT PASS ALSO CONFIRMS THE PRESENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE TAKING A SLIGHT TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A REORIENTATING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z
AND 120900Z.//
NNNN
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#46 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 11, 2009 11:00 am

Image

WTPN33 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (ETAU) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 33.3N 142.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 33.3N 142.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 33.1N 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 33.6N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 34.5N 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 36.3N 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 33.2N 144.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN
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#47 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 11, 2009 11:01 am

ZCZC 646
WTPQ21 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0909 ETAU (0909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 33.3N 142.5E FAIR
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 121200UTC 33.9N 150.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 131200UTC 35.9N 153.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 141200UTC 39.9N 159.3E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNN


Continues to weaken
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Re:

#48 Postby Cookie » Tue Aug 11, 2009 5:14 pm

theavocado wrote:In 2003, there was also an Etau, which made Typhoon strength, and struck in western Japan, on August 9th and 10th.

Right now there is an interesting phenomenon happening, and that is a resurgence of articles from 2003 with the year changed to 2009. The current Etau never made Typhoon strength, topping out around 40kts or so (depending on the agency) and never actually made landfall in Japan. Also, it never had the horizontal extent to dump record setting amount of precipitation on Japan.

Yet, if you do a Google news search for Etau, there are thousands of articles about the system making landfall, causing mudslides, and killing 13 people. Interestingly, there is little variation in the story, all the facts are the same, all the quotes are the same. It seems like one article got on the AP wire and has been republished thousands of times.

Curious.


if true that aint right at all!
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#49 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 11, 2009 5:45 pm

Image

Image

Partially exposed
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#50 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 11, 2009 8:48 pm

ZCZC 577
WTPQ21 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0909 ETAU (0909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 32.1N 147.9E FAIR
MOVE E 23KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 80NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 34.2N 152.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 140000UTC 36.1N 154.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 150000UTC 40.3N 160.5E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNNN


Image
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Re: WPAC: TS ETAU (0909/10W)

#51 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 11, 2009 9:02 pm

Image

WTPN33 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (ETAU) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 32.2N 148.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.2N 148.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 32.9N 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 35.2N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 32.4N 149.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 16 FT.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TS ETAU (0909/10W)

#52 Postby HurricaneBill » Tue Aug 11, 2009 10:02 pm

I'm pretty sure there wasn't a mix-up between the 2003 Etau and the 2009 Etau. The reports would have been retracted by now if there was.
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Re: WPAC: TS ETAU (0909/10W)

#53 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 12, 2009 4:32 am

Image

WTPN33 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (ETAU) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 32.6N 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 32.6N 150.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 33.5N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 35.3N 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 32.8N 150.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM'S
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC. RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASSES AND MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO REVEAL THAT 10W IS
STARTING TO BECOME MORE FRONTAL IN NATURE AS ITS WINDFIELD HAS
WIDENED AND BECOME ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. TS 10W
WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS
16 FEET.//
NNNN
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#54 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 12, 2009 4:35 am

ZCZC 729
WTPQ21 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0909 ETAU (0909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 32.6N 150.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 80NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 34.9N 152.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 140600UTC 38.3N 156.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 150600UTC 41.7N 165.0E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNNN


Image
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#55 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 12, 2009 10:54 am

ZCZC 766
WTPQ21 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0909 ETAU (0909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 33.2N 151.8E FAIR
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM SOUTH 80NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 36.1N 153.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 141200UTC 40.6N 158.4E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNNN


Image
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#56 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 12, 2009 3:53 pm

ZCZC 512
WTPQ21 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0909 ETAU (0909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 33.7N 151.8E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 200NM SOUTH 80NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 35.4N 152.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 141800UTC 39.7N 158.1E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN


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