RL3AO wrote:JTWC forecasting a typhoon
WTPN33 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C (MAKA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 13.5N 174.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 174.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.8N 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.6N 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.9N 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.6N 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.8N 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.2N 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 22.5N 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 174.3E.
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01C (MAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
CONSOLIDATED WITH DEEPENING CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST IS
ALSO PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER THE TD. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES
AND FROM A 141751Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TD 01C IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALONG ITS TRACK ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 01C IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND INITIALLY TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE EAST. BY TAU 72, A SECONDARY STR TO THE NORTH WILL NUDGE THE
SYSTEM ON A FASTER WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE MINIMAL NUMERIC GUIDANCE
AVAILABLE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 141151Z AUG 09 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN23 PGTW 141200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z,
151500Z AND 152100Z.//
