ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[robbielyn]

I am seeing just above the northern edge of cuba a very small but distinctive center forming look at the visible above and you will see what i mean. Just to the left of that round blob. this could be forming folks.

Ps: I just went back to look at it again in 2 seconds and i can barely see it now. Wow I wasn't seeing things if you look at it real closely you will see it before the final few frames.

Pss: At the risk of sounding fickle I now think that big circulation down south of cuba is trying to come together its a big circulation but i think its trying to do something.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html look at the swirl try to wrap around

[KWT]

Will be interesting to observe what happens with the convection over the next 24hrs. The key thing to watch is once the wave axis does get past Cuba. It probably will only have a few days in the gulf but as we've seen before things can get going quite quickly.

[cycloneye]

[N2Storms]

[quote="KWT"]Will be interesting to observe what happens with the convection over the next 24hrs. The key thing to watch is once the wave axis does get past Cuba. It probably will only have a few days in the gulf but as we've seen before things can get going quite quickly.[/quote]


I'm no expert but I have to believe that if Ana were to re-generate it wouldn't be until it got almost to the area where Claudette formed...probably sometime around Thursday afternoon or evening so even if it does close off again, it won't have time to be much more than what Claudette was...however, I just don't think it is going to be anything more than a rain maker for the Peninsula and the Big Bend area...

[robbielyn]

I think ana's coming together south of cuba. whoa!! Unless its just a mid level but I can just see this wrapping around like it's got its engine up and running lets see what you can do now ana.

[rrm]

what will keep ana from going into the central or western gom?

[KWT]

Well there certainly is a lot of convection flaring with the wave it has to be said, and Claudette didn't really get going till a little further to the west.

Its when its over the Gulf that it needs to be watched just in case.

[Sanibel]

My theory is Ana is just inland in south Cuba and tracking up the island. It is not showing its center swirl because it is too close to the ULL tracking away next to it to the SW.

The convection is telling you what this will do when it emerges. We will probably have another developing TD pass us to the west.

[robbielyn]

Will be interesting to observe what happens with the convection over the next 24hrs. The key thing to watch is once the wave axis does get past Cuba. It probably will only have a few days in the gulf but as we've seen before things can get going quite quickly.

I'm no expert but I have to believe that if Ana were to re-generate it wouldn't be until it got almost to the area where Claudette formed...probably sometime around Thursday afternoon or evening so even if it does close off again, it won't have time to be much more than what Claudette was...however, I just don't think it is going to be anything more than a rain maker for the Peninsula and the Big Bend area...

I disagree because the circ that is trying to do something now is south of cuba and has a lot more room in the gulf than claudette had. With that said, it still might not get past ts status but not for the reason you suggested. I think it will get close to the yucatan and then head nne into the panhandle because of the trough. But like you I am no expert either but isn't it fun to venture a guess? Spin the wheel see where it lands lol?

[KWT]

My theory is Ana is just inland in south Cuba and tracking up the island. It is not showing its center swirl because it is too close to the ULL tracking away next to it to the SW.

The convection is telling you what this will do when it emerges. We will probably have another developing TD pass us to the west.

I agree its got plenty of space and time to become a tropical cyclone once again, the convection is strong enough to at least give it a chance, though we need to watch the ULL and whether the shear is a big enough issue.

[Emmett_Brown]

Depressions have formed even over Cuba in the past... central Cuba is pretty flat. So, if conditions aloft continue to improve, it may not need to wait for the GOM to get going.

[KWT]

Very true Emmett though I think with marginal conditions aloft its going to need the warm waters of the Gulf to give it an extra boost.

[robbielyn]

My theory is Ana is just inland in south Cuba and tracking up the island. It is not showing its center swirl because it is too close to the ULL tracking away next to it to the SW.

The convection is telling you what this will do when it emerges. We will probably have another developing TD pass us to the west.

I agree its got plenty of space and time to become a tropical cyclone once again, the convection is strong enough to at least give it a chance, though we need to watch the ULL and whether the shear is a big enough issue.

Well twc and my local met says no organization is happening because that ull makes the conditions unfavorable.

[Javlin]

I saw a small circulation earlier today so small probably was nothing more than an eddy but was generating clouds very close to Cuba.The ULL is to close now I believe for any develoment to occur that said once the wave goes further N then the ULL may may help in development but I am feeling chances are getting really slim here.The ULL should sling shot the wave into the GOM later tonight and tomorrow.

[KWT]

All depends on the exact track of the ULL abd the wave but your right Javlin the ULL is, as has been for the entire track of Ana in one form or the other, going to be a problem.

[rrm]

any chance it makes it into the western gom?

[JonathanBelles]

I think the trough that is keeping Bill away will keep Ana confined to the eastern Gulf.

[rrm]

if ana stays south would that increase her chances of moving more west?

[JonathanBelles]

if ana stays south would that increase her chances of moving more west?

It would get her more west, but not into the WGOM.

[KWT]

Yeah if it does develop then this should be mainly an eastern Gulf issue judging from the synoptic pattern.