CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO (10E)

[hawaiigirl]

a beautiful storm he is.

[RattleMan]

Went with 85kt despite the 80kt at 0000z.

WTPZ25 KNHC 150233
TCMEP5
HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 130.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 130.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 129.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.7N 132.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.3N 135.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.9N 137.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.5N 140.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.2N 145.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 24.0N 150.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 26.0N 156.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 130.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[bob rulz]

It's a beautiful hurricane in visible imagery.

Indeed. It may not be a particularly powerful hurricane but that is one of the finest structures a hurricane can have.

[RattleMan]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150520
TCDEP5
HURRICANE GUILLERMO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
1030 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GUILLERMO HAS INTENSIFIED QUICKLY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE NOW COMPLETELY
SURROUNDED BY A THICK RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. A SPECIAL
DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AT 0430 UTC GAVE A T-NUMBER OF
5.5...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 100 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGE IN INITIAL INTENSITY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED BY 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS...AND
A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEYOND THAT TIME AS THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO INCREASE
MARKEDLY BY 36 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...AS IS THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.

THE WIND RADII FORECAST HAS MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0530Z 18.4N 130.8W 100 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 18.7N 132.3W 100 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 19.3N 135.0W 90 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.9N 137.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 20.5N 140.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 22.2N 145.3W 40 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 24.0N 150.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 26.0N 156.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150520
TCDEP5
HURRICANE GUILLERMO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
1030 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GUILLERMO HAS INTENSIFIED QUICKLY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE NOW COMPLETELY
SURROUNDED BY A THICK RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. A SPECIAL
DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AT 0430 UTC GAVE A T-NUMBER OF
5.5...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 100 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGE IN INITIAL INTENSITY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED BY 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS...AND
A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEYOND THAT TIME AS THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO INCREASE
MARKEDLY BY 36 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...AS IS THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.

THE WIND RADII FORECAST HAS MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0530Z 18.4N 130.8W 100 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 18.7N 132.3W 100 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 19.3N 135.0W 90 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.9N 137.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 20.5N 140.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 22.2N 145.3W 40 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 24.0N 150.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 26.0N 156.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

I knew it! No way a storm as fine like that could just maximize at 100mph x).

Anyone got a latest satellite pic?

[margiek]

Went with 85kt despite the 80kt at 0000z.

no the 00Z is 95 kt (operational best track can be modified at times other than advisory packages, even afterwards, based on when additional information comes in).

[Macrocane]

It seems that the Pacific is trying to recover the time lost in May and June in terms of activity. I knew that Guillermo could reach Cat 3 when I saw him this afternoon it looked great, symmetrical and good outflow in all quadrants, an eye trying to open, excellent banding and strong convection.

[hawaiigirl]

[bob rulz]

There's nothing more stunning than a beautiful hurricane situated well out to sea and set against thousands of miles of mostly clear skies.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150835
TCDEP5
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2009

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF GUILLERMO REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH
THE CLARITY OF THE EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY HAS VARIED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 5.5 FROM TAFB AND 5.0 FROM SAB
AT 0600 UTC...WHILE THE 3-HOUR AVERAGE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES REMAIN
AROUND 6.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100 KT AS A BLEND OF
THESE ESTIMATES.

ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL THE CYCLONE IS NOW OVER SSTS OF LESS
THAN 26C...AND WILL CROSS THE 25C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING LATER
TODAY...AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING BEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING ABOVE 20 KT AFTER THAT
TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ICON INTENSITY
CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND LGEM AT
DAY 3 AND BEYOND...AS THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE UNREALISTICALLY
INTENSE WITH THE CYCLONE AT THAT TIME RANGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14 AND THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. GUILLERMO WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT FORMS NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...TOWARD THE
TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0230 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 0545 UTC ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 18.7N 131.9W 100 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 19.2N 134.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 19.8N 136.5W 85 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 20.4N 139.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 21.2N 141.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 23.0N 146.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 25.0N 151.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 27.5N 157.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HurricaneRobert]

I knew this one would be a major hurricane. Carlos should be upgraded so there would be three thus far. GFS is picking up three more storms next week. They all look like fish storms.

[CrazyC83]

15/1200 UTC 18.7N 132.5W T5.5/5.5 GUILLERMO -- East Pacific

Based on the formation, I would put it at 105 kt right now.

[Iune]

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_ep102009.invest Best track upgraded Guillermo to a 110 kt hurricane

[Kingarabian]

Damn. Continues to intensify.

[clfenwi]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 151439
TCDEP5
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2009

THE INNER CORE OF GUILLERMO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL.
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER SSMI OVERPASS ALSO SUGGEST
THE EYE NO LONGER CLOUD-FILLED. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE OVERALL IMPROVEMENT OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN FROM 6 HOURS AGO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 110 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MAINTAINING THE CYCLONE AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
FOR A BIT LONGER. BEYOND THE 12 HOUR PERIOD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN...WITH A FASTER SPIN DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES THE ICON
BLEND...GFDL...LGEM...SHIPS...AND HWRF...FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...TO SHOW A MORE REALISTIC WEAKENING...A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND LGEM IS RELIED ON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A PERSISTENT 285/13. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
MEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HURRICANE GUILLERMO
SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION INTO A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON DAYS 4 AND
5. THE ADVISORY IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 18.9N 133.2W 110 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 135.2W 90 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 20.2N 137.8W 80 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 21.0N 140.3W 70 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 21.9N 142.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 24.0N 148.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 26.0N 153.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 28.5N 159.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[brunota2003]

I am sorry that you are being way overshadowed by your cousins in the Atlantic, Guillermo...let me reassure you that you are a very pretty 'cane and have been an interesting (and surprising one) to track and watch!

[Scorpion]

They keep saying its supposed to weaken but it keeps strengthening? Strange.

[Weatherfreak000]

Boy it sure feels as if Hawaii is graced doesnt it? Storms always seem to go to the north and south around the islands.

[CrazyC83]

15/1800 UTC 18.9N 133.8W T4.5/5.5 GUILLERMO -- East Pacific

Looks to definitely have peaked. Probably peaked around 0900Z.

[CrazyC83]

Best track: 95 kt

EP, 10, 2009081518, , BEST, 0, 190N, 1339W, 95, 958, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 70, 60, 90,