CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO (10E)

[RL3AO]

[Crostorm]

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 140237
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
800 PM PDT THU AUG 13 2009

EVEN THOUGH VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE DEVELOPED
EARLIER TODAY...INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A MORE RAGGED APPEARANCE
WITH ONE WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A RECENT PARTIAL SSMI PASS SUGGESTS THAT A
CONVECTIVE RING HAS ENCIRCLED THE CENTER...AND THIS COULD BE A SIGN
THAT GUILLERMO IS READY TO STRENGTHEN. DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS ARE
T4.0 FROM TAFB AND T3.5 FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
JUST BELOW HURRICANE STATUS AT 60 KT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOW FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO...BUT SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED TO FALL FROM 27C
TO NEAR 24C OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
SHOWS GUILLERMO BECOMING A HURRICANE SOON...BUT THEN SHOWS STEADY
WEAKENING AFTER 36 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO ONCE IT BECOMES
POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. ALL OF THE NUMERICAL
MODELS...AS WELL AS BAM SHALLOW...INDICATE THAT THIS MOTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EVEN AFTER GUILLERMO WEAKENS
AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THIS IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
THEREFORE SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5 TOWARDS THE
TIGHT MODEL CLUSTERING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 17.2N 124.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 17.6N 126.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 18.2N 129.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 18.8N 131.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 19.3N 134.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 20.5N 140.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 145.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 22.0N 150.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Kingarabian]

As you guys see in the image looking at Guillermo, can someone explain to me what the Green color represents, as well with the blue? The red is convection amirite?

[RL3AO]

As you guys see in the image looking at Guillermo, can someone explain to me what the Green color represents, as well with the blue? The red is convection amirite?

Its just how cold the cloud tops are (aka how intense the thunderstorms are). White is weakest, then green, then red, then blue is strongest.

[RL3AO]

Probably a hurricane at the next advisory.

[Macrocane]

Memo (that's a nickname for Guillermo) is looking pretty good, I agree with RL3AO a hurricane on the next advisory.

[Kingarabian]

There forecasting this to become a major hurricane?

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009

GUILLERMO IS UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE BASED ON THE APPEARANCE
OF AN EYE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 0151 UTC SSMIS PASS AND A
0218 UTC AMSU PASS...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 4.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0600 UTC. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT APPARENT IN
GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED IMAGERY...THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CDO BETWEEN TWO CURVED BANDS OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
OVER SSTS ABOVE 26C FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SHOWING A
GRADUAL SPIN DOWN AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS
AND VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS BELOW ICON AT
DAYS 4 AND 5...AS THE HWRF AND ESPECIALLY THE GFDL SEEM TOO SLOW TO
WEAKEN GUILLERMO GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED AT THAT
TIME.

MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS FROM A 0259 UTC QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOW THAT GUILLERMO IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
280/13. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. GUILLERMO
IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY DAYS
4 AND 5. THEREFORE...A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOWER
SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION AND A
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TVCN TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON DATA FROM THE
THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 17.6N 125.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 17.9N 127.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 18.4N 130.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 19.0N 133.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 19.6N 135.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 141.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 22.0N 146.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 23.0N 151.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

There forecasting this to become a major hurricane?

No

[lester]

WTPZ35 KNHC 141434
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009
...GUILLERMO A LITTLE STRONGER...HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST OR ABOUT
1180 MILES...1900 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

GUILLERMO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.
SUBSEQUENTLY...A WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ON SATURDAY AS
GUILLERMO MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.8N 127.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 141434
TCDEP5
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009

ENHANCED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT GUILLERMO IS A
LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING. BANDING OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST
PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...INDICATIVE OF AN
EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS SUGGESTING A WELL-DEFINED BANDING EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT...SUPPORTED BY DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITIES AND 70 KT ESTIMATES FROM A RECENT AMSU
OVERPASS AND AN EARLIER UW-CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS.

SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD...GUILLERMO SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES
OVER COOLER WATER AND WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...LGEM...AND SHIPS
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ON DAYS 4 AND 5...THE FORECAST IS HEDGED
CLOSER TO THE SHIPS WHICH REFLECTS A MORE REASONABLE WEAKENING
TREND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A PERSISTENT 280/14...WITHIN THE PERIPHERAL
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE 5 DAY FORECAST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED TOGETHER...BUT DO INDICATE SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN FOREWORD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE TVCN MODEL
CONSENSUS AND IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
ON DAY 5.

THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED BASED ON DATA FROM AN
ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 17.8N 127.3W 70 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 18.2N 129.3W 70 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 18.8N 132.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 19.4N 134.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 20.1N 137.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 21.4N 142.7W 45 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 22.6N 147.7W 35 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 24.0N 152.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[RL3AO]

EP, 10, 2009081418, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1282W, 85, 972, HU

85 knots, category 2.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 142034
TCDEP5
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT GUILLERMO HAS
DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER
OUTFLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT OVER THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. A COMPROMISE OF DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES
SUGGEST THAT INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 85 KT...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOLLOWS SUIT. SLIGHT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE THE COOLER WATER BEGINS TO
AFFECT THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARD...GUILLERMO SHOULD BEGIN TO SPIN DOWN
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BEYOND THE 24 HOUR...WHICH IS AGAIN CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND
LGEM DYNAMICAL MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AROUND THE 36 HOUR TIME FRAME...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD. THE LARGE-SCALE AND
HURRICANE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 17.9N 128.9W 85 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.3N 130.9W 80 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 18.8N 133.6W 70 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 19.4N 136.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 20.0N 138.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 21.5N 144.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 23.0N 149.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 24.5N 154.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[HurricaneRobert]

It's a beautiful hurricane in visible imagery.

[cycloneye]

[HurricaneRobert]

It looks like it is strengthening. The eye's starting to clear out.

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be about 95 kt.

[CrazyC83]

Actually, the 0000Z best track weakens it:

EP, 10, 2009081500, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1297W, 80, 976, HU

[bob rulz]

It looks like it peaked in strength about an hour ago. The eye has clouded over a bit since then and there's been some erosion of the northern eyewall (at least on infrared).