BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep912009.invest
FSTDA
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200908101835
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END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 91, 2009, DB, O, 2009081018, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP912009
EP, 91, 2009080918, , BEST, 0, 95N, 978W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2009081000, , BEST, 0, 99N, 996W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2009081006, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1013W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2009081012, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1031W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2009081018, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1048W, 25, 1010, DB
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest
CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO (10E)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 10 2009
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 10 2009
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Derek Ortt
in fantasy land, GFS shows this recurving just east of Hawaii
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 88_m.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 88_m.shtml
0 likes
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139064
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : INVEST 91E
ABPZ20 KNHC 102343
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 10 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE-E...LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 10 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE-E...LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139064
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : INVEST 91E
ABPZ20 KNHC 111130
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE-E...LOCATED ABOUT 1205 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE-E...LOCATED ABOUT 1205 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139064
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : INVEST 91E
ABPZ20 KNHC 111733
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE-E...LOCATED ABOUT 1260 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE-E...LOCATED ABOUT 1260 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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HurricaneRobert
- Category 3
- Posts: 812
- Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139064
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : INVEST 91E
WHXX01 KMIA 111854
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1854 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912009) 20090811 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090811 1800 090812 0600 090812 1800 090813 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 110.8W 14.1N 113.4W 15.0N 115.9W 15.9N 118.3W
BAMD 13.1N 110.8W 14.0N 113.6W 14.7N 116.2W 15.3N 118.8W
BAMM 13.1N 110.8W 14.0N 113.5W 14.7N 116.0W 15.4N 118.5W
LBAR 13.1N 110.8W 13.7N 113.5W 14.3N 116.7W 14.9N 119.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090813 1800 090814 1800 090815 1800 090816 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 121.0W 18.3N 126.8W 19.8N 133.1W 21.1N 139.8W
BAMD 15.9N 121.5W 17.2N 126.9W 18.9N 132.4W 20.8N 138.0W
BAMM 16.1N 121.1W 17.7N 126.6W 19.5N 132.5W 21.4N 138.5W
LBAR 15.3N 123.3W 16.8N 129.3W 19.0N 134.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 60KTS 56KTS 48KTS
DSHP 54KTS 60KTS 56KTS 48KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 110.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 109.0W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 106.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 91E
From the 22Z TWD:
A 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 12N111W HAS MOVED LITTLE
TODAY...AND IN FACT MAY BE BECOMING ABSORBED BY A LARGE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROPICAL WAVE DIRECTLY BEHIND IT COVERING AN
AREA BETWEEN 113W AND 108W. THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
SPREAD ACROSS THIS AREA...BEING VENTILATED BY DIFFLUENT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THE BEST CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE WAVE IS OCCURRING WITH AND JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND THIS WAVE MAY BE GAINING
BETTER ORGANIZATION. TPW ANIMATIONS INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND WAS PULLING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFF THE
W COAST OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A look at the area in question:
A 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 12N111W HAS MOVED LITTLE
TODAY...AND IN FACT MAY BE BECOMING ABSORBED BY A LARGE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROPICAL WAVE DIRECTLY BEHIND IT COVERING AN
AREA BETWEEN 113W AND 108W. THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
SPREAD ACROSS THIS AREA...BEING VENTILATED BY DIFFLUENT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THE BEST CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE WAVE IS OCCURRING WITH AND JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND THIS WAVE MAY BE GAINING
BETTER ORGANIZATION. TPW ANIMATIONS INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND WAS PULLING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFF THE
W COAST OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A look at the area in question:
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139064
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : INVEST 91E
ABPZ20 KNHC 112334
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE-E...LOCATED ABOUT 1345 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE-E...LOCATED ABOUT 1345 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139064
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : INVEST 91E
Code Red
ABPZ20 KNHC 120542
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE-E...LOCATED ABOUT 1435 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER-ORGANIZED.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
ABPZ20 KNHC 120542
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE-E...LOCATED ABOUT 1435 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER-ORGANIZED.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139064
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : INVEST 91E
WHXX01 KMIA 111304
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1304 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912009) 20090811 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090811 1200 090812 0000 090812 1200 090813 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 108.8W 12.0N 111.2W 12.8N 113.3W 13.6N 115.5W
BAMD 11.0N 108.8W 11.8N 111.3W 12.3N 113.6W 12.8N 115.9W
BAMM 11.0N 108.8W 11.9N 111.2W 12.5N 113.5W 13.2N 115.7W
LBAR 11.0N 108.8W 11.4N 111.9W 11.9N 115.1W 12.5N 118.6W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 48KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090813 1200 090814 1200 090815 1200 090816 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 117.6W 16.2N 122.1W 17.7N 127.2W 18.8N 133.3W
BAMD 13.2N 118.1W 14.1N 122.7W 15.2N 127.4W 16.2N 132.6W
BAMM 13.8N 117.9W 15.3N 122.6W 16.7N 127.8W 18.0N 133.9W
LBAR 12.9N 122.2W 13.7N 128.0W 16.6N 133.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 56KTS 69KTS 70KTS 67KTS
DSHP 56KTS 69KTS 70KTS 67KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 108.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 106.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 103.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139064
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : INVEST 91E
Oh boy,here it is.
18
WHXX01 KMIA 121237
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1237 UTC WED AUG 12 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912009) 20090812 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090812 1200 090813 0000 090813 1200 090814 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 115.2W 15.7N 117.7W 16.8N 120.1W 17.8N 122.8W
BAMD 14.5N 115.2W 15.4N 117.7W 16.1N 120.2W 17.0N 122.6W
BAMM 14.5N 115.2W 15.5N 117.6W 16.5N 120.0W 17.6N 122.5W
LBAR 14.5N 115.2W 15.2N 118.1W 16.0N 121.1W 16.8N 124.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090814 1200 090815 1200 090816 1200 090817 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 125.7W 19.9N 132.1W 21.0N 139.1W 22.2N 145.2W
BAMD 17.9N 125.1W 20.0N 130.2W 22.6N 135.1W 24.8N 137.3W
BAMM 18.6N 125.2W 20.6N 130.9W 23.0N 136.9W 25.3N 140.2W
LBAR 17.6N 127.2W 20.0N 132.8W 23.7N 137.3W 23.1N 139.8W
SHIP 47KTS 50KTS 37KTS 21KTS
DSHP 47KTS 50KTS 37KTS 21KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 115.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 112.3W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 110.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
18
WHXX01 KMIA 121237
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1237 UTC WED AUG 12 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912009) 20090812 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090812 1200 090813 0000 090813 1200 090814 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 115.2W 15.7N 117.7W 16.8N 120.1W 17.8N 122.8W
BAMD 14.5N 115.2W 15.4N 117.7W 16.1N 120.2W 17.0N 122.6W
BAMM 14.5N 115.2W 15.5N 117.6W 16.5N 120.0W 17.6N 122.5W
LBAR 14.5N 115.2W 15.2N 118.1W 16.0N 121.1W 16.8N 124.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090814 1200 090815 1200 090816 1200 090817 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 125.7W 19.9N 132.1W 21.0N 139.1W 22.2N 145.2W
BAMD 17.9N 125.1W 20.0N 130.2W 22.6N 135.1W 24.8N 137.3W
BAMM 18.6N 125.2W 20.6N 130.9W 23.0N 136.9W 25.3N 140.2W
LBAR 17.6N 127.2W 20.0N 132.8W 23.7N 137.3W 23.1N 139.8W
SHIP 47KTS 50KTS 37KTS 21KTS
DSHP 47KTS 50KTS 37KTS 21KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 115.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 112.3W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 110.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
Re: EPAC : INVEST 91E
WTPN21 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2N 113.2W TO 16.7N 121.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 120530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 113.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO
CONSOLIDATE AROUND AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 120309Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDS
STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A
120211Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN IMPROVED LLCC THOUGH IT IS STILL
ELONGATED A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS) AND IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO
INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC AND AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130900Z.//
NNNN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139064
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : INVEST 91E
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep912009_ep102009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200908121519
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 102009.ren
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep912009_ep102009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200908121519
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 102009.ren
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