ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Kat while there wasn't a hurricane warning "out there" Canada's news stations have been reporting for days that Environment Canada and the CHC have said that the high tide and Bill *might* arrive at near the same time so I'm sure people there were aware conditions might change rapidly.

One of the articles linked to above states:

"With the storm moving faster than previously expected, the anticipated storm surge will happen closer to high tide than was previously forecast, and water levels are expected to hit "50 and possibly 90 centimetres above high astronomical tide."

Placentia's population was reported as 3,898 (I'm not sure how many might live in areas that the surge will effect). People in Atlantic Canada can be just as stubborn about staying with their homes as Floridians were/are when they figured the hurricanes wouldn't be too bad.

[Cyclenall]

930 pm tonight? this storm was out there 10 DAYS!
so sorry for the people who hadn't a clue. WHERE S Environmental Canada?
Even the NHC hasn't called it yet!

Good question, I've been asking the same for the severe weather around Ontario (before August 20th).

I'm quite disappointed in the way the media and several agencies talked about Bill and Atlantic Canada's impacts but I shouldn't be since this seems to be the standard. All I heard were the typical lines and nonsense such as "We dodged a bullet", "This is no Juan", "It should weaken to a TS because it will be passing over the St.Lawrence waters" and the famous "It could have been worse" which is used for all weather events no matter what happened .

I also have to say I'm impressed with Bill this far north.

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory

000
WTNT43 KNHC 240843
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST MON AUG 24 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS RADAR AND SURFACE DATA FROM
NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA INDICATE THAT BILL HAS QUICKLY LOST TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
INCREASING ASYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A BAND OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A POLAR JET THAT IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS 60 KT...WHICH IS BASED PRIMARILY ON BUOY...SHIP...AND
LAND OBSERVATIONS THAT RECORDED 50-56 KT WINDS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 075/37. BILL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT BILL WILL SLOW
DOWN AS IT INTERACTS WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SOUTHWEST OF
ICELAND IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF BILL WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON BILL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 48.6N 50.2W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 24/1800Z 50.0N 41.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 25/0600Z 51.5N 29.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/1800Z 52.5N 19.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 26/0600Z 55.0N 11.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 27/0600Z 62.5N 1.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

[tropicana]

Update (excerpt) from Canadian Hurricane Centre:-

Post-tropical storm Bill information statement issued by the
Canadian hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.30 AM NDT
Monday 24 August 2009.

... Bill moves away from Newfoundland.. Toward the open sea ...

At 9.30 AM NDT... (8am ET) Post-tropical storm Bill was located near
Latitude 48.9 N and longitude 45.3 W ... 570 km (355miles) east northeast of st johns. Maximum sustained winds
Are estimated at 102 km/h (65mph) ... And central pressure at
990 MB. Bill is moving east at 78 km/h (48mph)

All warnings ended for Newfoundland. Strong to gale force
West to northwest winds linger along the east coast of Newfoundland
until later this morning. Seas along the southern coast of the
Avalon are abating as Bill moves out to sea.

At 0630 NDT a rig in the Northern Grand Banks reported southwest
Winds of 80 kts ... Suggesting that Bill remains a strong tropical
storm with surface winds 55-60 kts. Gales extend back to the east
coast of Newfoundland at forecast time.
Remaining storm warnings with Bill will likely be lowered later
This morning and gale warnings ended this afternoon.

The centre of Bill is clearly east of Newfoundland waters at
Forecast time. 11Z report from drifter buoy z44622 ... Just east of
The southern extent of the Funk Island Bank marine area ...Had
pressure of 991 MB and falling. It is likely that the centre of
Bill was near the buoy at that time.
Sustained gales extended as far back as Newfoundland coast until 10Z.

Bill moving rapidly in westerlies and we carry it only to 00Z before
discontinuing track as it will exit the CHC response zone this
afternoon. Nhc discontinued messaging on Bill at 09Z.

Final meteorological storm values will be given in the final
hurricane bulletin to be issued by the canadian hurricane centre at
12:30 PM NDT (11am ET).

It is no longer appropriate to speak about wind radii since the
gradient has filled in to nearly 400 NM behind Bill.

[george_r_1961]

Thanks!

My guesses were McGuire AFB, Dover AFB, and Langley AFB.

Never thought of Andrews

[Cookie]

can the mods, keep this thread open and un arcived for a few more days as it heads towards the uk. even in talking tropics. as I dont think bill is fully over yet affecting land.

thanks.

[cycloneye]

We always leave the threads of the systems here for a few days after they are deactivated to allow more replies from the members.

[Cookie]

thanks. I think its going to bring a lot rainfall to the uk.

the warning cone goes for it to track right through where I live

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

For anyone interested in extratropical storm Bill. I'll be posting information about it on my Blog, for at least the next two days until it clears the British Isles:

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/

[jinftl]

Photo from Bermuda? Nova Scotia? Newfoundland?

Nope...this was Lynn, Massachusetts....a north shore suburb of boston.

[HURAKAN]

Picture taken on August 19. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1290

[CrazyC83]

There is some question on whether it was a hurricane at landfall...Environment Canada doesn't seem to think so, they think it may have weakened to 60 kt at landfall.

[jinftl]

given that they had failed to issue a hurricane warning, i have to almost question the 'isn't that convenient' line of reasoning...perhaps i am too cynical

There is some question on whether it was a hurricane at landfall...Environment Canada doesn't seem to think so, they think it may have weakened to 60 kt at landfall.

[clfenwi]

Out of curiosity, (after glancing at this page), I did a quick (yet mostly manual) verification of the NHC's 12Z forecasts running from the 15th through the 22nd. If they performed similarly during the other 3 forecast times, they came out a little bit better than last year's averages, (for the earlier periods, at least).

time error in nm (2008 avg errror)
24 hr 41.1 (48.3)
48 hr 74.9 (88.2)
72 hr 101 (126.9)
96 hr 160.2 (159.8)
120 hr 221.5 (191.8)

There were a couple of relatively wicked errors in the 24 hour forecast early on (due to under-forecasting its forward movement).

Interestingly, the 12Z forecast of the 17th was consistently good;its errors were 17/34/66/111/186, below average for each period and best offered for each period (there was a 24 hour forecast that had a 7 mile error).

[Evil Jeremy]

Just want to pass along a joke from Conan O'Brien from tonight:

"Meteorologists say Hurricane Bill has been downgraded to a tropical depression. He became depressed after a run in with Hurricane Hillary".

[Cyclenall]

Just want to pass along a joke from Conan O'Brien from tonight:

"Meteorologists say Hurricane Bill has been downgraded to a tropical depression. He became depressed after a run in with Hurricane Hillary".

Darn, I caught Conan 5 minutes into his monologue and missed that. There is a Hurricane Hillary but that was in the Epac.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

At one point on August 22 these were the warnings that were up (some may have been upgraded since I wasn't watching for changes constantly):


Newfoundland and Labrador
Tropical storm watch for Avalon Peninsula North
Tropical storm watch for Avalon Peninsula South
Tropical storm watch for Bay of Exploits
Tropical storm watch for Bonavista North
Tropical storm watch for Bonavista Peninsula
Tropical storm watch for Buchans and the interior
Tropical storm watch for Burin Peninsula
Tropical storm watch for Clarenville and vicinity
Tropical storm watch for Corner Brook and vicinity
Tropical storm watch for Deer Lake - Humber Valley
Tropical storm watch for Gander and vicinity
Tropical storm watch for Grand Falls-Windsor and vicinity
Tropical storm watch for Green Bay - White Bay
Tropical storm watch for Gros Morne
Tropical storm watch for Channel-Port aux Basques - Burgeo
Tropical storm watch for Ramea - Connaigre
Wreckhouse wind warning for St. George's
Tropical storm watch for St. George's
Tropical storm watch for St. John's and vicinity
Tropical storm watch for Terra Nova

Nova Scotia
Rainfall warning for Annapolis County
Tropical storm watch for Annapolis County
Rainfall warning for Antigonish County
Tropical storm watch for Antigonish County
Rainfall warning for Colchester County - Cobequid Bay
Tropical storm watch for Colchester County - Cobequid Bay
Rainfall warning for Colchester County - Truro and south
Tropical storm watch for Colchester County - Truro and south
Rainfall warning for Colchester County North
Tropical storm watch for Colchester County North
Rainfall warning for Cumberland County - Minas Shore
Tropical storm watch for Cumberland County - Minas Shore
Rainfall warning for Cumberland County North and Cobequid Pass
Tropical storm watch for Cumberland County North and Cobequid Pass
Rainfall warning for Digby County
Tropical storm watch for Digby County
Rainfall warning for Guysborough County
Tropical storm warning for Guysborough County
Hurricane watch for Guysborough County
Rainfall warning for Halifax County - east of Porters Lake
Wind warning for Halifax County - east of Porters Lake
Tropical storm warning for Halifax County - east of Porters Lake
Rainfall warning for Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Wind warning for Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Tropical storm warning for Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
Rainfall warning for Hants County
Tropical storm watch for Hants County
Rainfall warning for Inverness County - Mabou and north
Tropical storm watch for Inverness County - Mabou and north
Rainfall warning for Inverness County - south of Mabou
Tropical storm watch for Inverness County - south of Mabou
Rainfall warning for Kings County
Tropical storm watch for Kings County
Rainfall warning for Lunenburg County
Wind warning for Lunenburg County
Tropical storm warning for Lunenburg County
Rainfall warning for Pictou County
Tropical storm watch for Pictou County
Rainfall warning for Queens County
Wind warning for Queens County
Tropical storm warning for Queens County
Rainfall warning for Richmond County
Tropical storm warning for Richmond County
Hurricane watch for Richmond County
Rainfall warning for Shelburne County
Wind warning for Shelburne County
Tropical storm warning for Shelburne County
Rainfall warning for Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County
Tropical storm warning for Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County
Hurricane watch for Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County
Rainfall warning for Victoria County
Tropical storm watch for Victoria County
Rainfall warning for Yarmouth County
Tropical storm watch for Yarmouth County

Prince Edward Island
Rainfall warning for Kings County P.E.I.
Tropical storm watch for Kings County P.E.I.
Rainfall warning for Prince County P.E.I.
Tropical storm watch for Prince County P.E.I.

We were in Alberta at the time and due to holidays I wasn't on enough to keep checking on how much or if they changed as Bill got closer.

Truly I think Environment Canada/CHC gave warnings that were reasonable (esp if the hurricane had wobbled a bit) and going by the reports below they were also focused/involved with local Emergency Measure Organizations if they saw a possibility of dangerous weather/conditions.

This is a more detailed release from Placentia:

NewfieBullet
Aug 23 2009, 08:58 PM
Mayor Bill Hogan and the town council of Placentia have declared a state of emergency for low lying areas of the town. The evacuation of at-risk residents will begin shortly. The town has been advised by Environment Canada and Fire and Emergency Services NL that a severe weather warning has been issued for the southeast coast of the island, including the Connaigre Peninsula west to Francois. Hurricane Bill is tracking faster than previously expected and as a result the peak storm surge is expected to occur closer to high tide than previously forecast. A surge between 50 and 90 centimetres above high tide is expected to occur around midnight. Fire Emergency is recommending that communities place themselves on a high state of alert and that personnel be put on watch through the night.

If an emergency requiring assistance occurs, residents are reminded to contact their local fire department or police for assistance. In the case of a flood, residents should contact their municipality as well as the fire department and police.

24-hour Emergency Line 709-729-3703

The rain has begun on the southwest coast from Huricane Bill, which will be a tropical storm when it reaches Newfoundland. Most of the island - the Northern Peninsula being the exception - is on storm watch with high winds and heavy rain expected. Much of the south coast and from Clarenville to Corner Brook will be drenched with about 70-80 mms of rain with some areas getting over 100 mms and the southwest coast expecting 140 mms in some places. Winds will be the highest in the eastern half of the island but rainfall will be slightly lower on the Avalon and Burin Peninsula - about 30-40 mms for the most part. Some wind gusts on the eastern half of the island will exceed 100 kmh. Meteorologist Herb Thoms of the gander Weather Office says come mid-morning on Monday the storm will have moved out to the northeast.Residents are reminded to stay far away from the shoreline because of rough sea conditions.Waves could reach between 5 and 10 metres in height. There will be a storm surge of about half a metre to as much as a metre. Conditions will make shorelines from Burin across to Cape Race vulnerable to shoreline erosion and maybe some damage to coastal infrastructure. Residents are advised to keep a safe distance away from the shoreline.

Marine Atlantic has decided to stop sailing for a 24 hour period between 8:00 am this morning until tomorrow at 8:00 am. Vice-President of Operations John Magchrowicz says passengers should sit tight. Magchrowicz says passengers should monitor their website for updates or call their reservation line.

The provincial government is advising the public to be ready in anticipation of Hurricane Bill, which is expected to reach Newfoundland sometime tonight or tomorrow. The Minister Responsible for Fire and Emergency Services is reminding residents of the importance of being prepared for extreme weather conditions. Ensure all drains are free of debris and clean out window and door wells. Bring lawn furniture and ladders indoors, and remove dead tree branches from trees. Secure fishing gear, boats and equipment and make sure sump pumps are working. Should basement flooding occur, make sure that the power is shut off at the main breaker before stepping in the water. Downed wires should immediately be reported to Newfoundland Power and the public is advised to stay clear. Municipalities are advised to make sure storm sewers, culverts, bridges and drains are free from debris, and property owners should advise town officials of excessive flooding on streets or blocked drains and culverts.

St. John's Mayor Dennis O'Keefe says a special committee has been struck to deal with the approaching hurricane. He says crews have been busy making sure the city is prepared for the heavy rain and strong winds expected to accompany the storm. Placentia was one of the hardest hit communities when post-tropical storm Chantal hit in 2007. Mayor Bill Hogan says they are hoping the infrastructure improvements made after Chantal's devastation will hold.

http://vocm.com/newsarticle.asp?mn=2&i...4&popular=1

Atlantic Canada relieved as hurricane Bill blows by
Canwest News ServiceAugust 24, 200


With files from Richard Foot
© Copyright (c) Canwest News Servic

"It won't go down in history except for much ado about nothing," Placentia Mayor Bill Hogan said Monday. "What we were getting from Environment Canada about the velocity of the storm indicated we were in severe trouble."

Hogan said fishermen reported sea currents faster than anything ever witnessed before in the area, but they were spared from any serious trouble because the tides did not rise to dangerous levels.

"They were telling me the current was the strongest they had seen it. It was moving faster than they ever saw it and they were hoping the tide wouldn't rise any further or they would have had to cut their boats loose," said Hogan, whose low-lying community sits in the southeastern part of the province.

Placentia declared a state of emergency at about 11:30 p.m. Sunday night, but called it off at about 3:40 a.m. Monday, according to the RCMP.

Winds of up to 102 kilometres per hour were recorded in the eastern part of the province, and between 30 and 60 millimetres of rain fell throughout the area, according to the Canadian Hurricane Centre.

RCMP Cpl. Ivonne Walsh, stationed in St. John's, said the storm caused little damage except for "a few branches broken here and there."

Nova Scotians also breathed a sigh of the relief.

Despite the thousands of power outages across the province, the hurricane centre deemed the storm a "near miss."

Bill hit the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia Sunday with winds of around 75 km/h and dumped up to 70 mm of rain.

"We were very fortunate not to feel the full brunt of Bill," said Michelle Perry, with Nova Scotia's Emergency Management Office. "Everyone is breathing a sigh of relief this morning."

Perry said about 250 homes remained without power Monday morning. Nova Scotia Power reported that more than 38,000 homes had lost electricity during the storm.

Not everyone in Nova Scotia escaped Bill's wrath. In the famous village of Peggy's Cove, a beloved craft and clothing shop called Beales' Bailiwick was picked off its foundations by hurricane-fed tides that flooded parts of the village and knocked over the building.

"I saw the water surge in from the open Atlantic, run through the house and basement and through the first floor," said Jo Beale, whose family owns the business, and whose parents evacuated their home next door to the shop on Saturday night.

Beale lives in a house on higher ground that she runs as an art gallery.

"The actual store building moved, it tipped over," she said. "All the land around the building and the house beside the shop, and my neighbours' house too, have been surrounded by tidal surge."

The shop suffered similar damage in 2003 when hurricane Juan destroyed the breakwater wall that had protected the property for decades. Although the family repaired the building, Beale said government officials had never rebuilt the breakwater.

"It was really, really horrible to watch it happen all over again," she said.

Elsewhere in Nova Scotia, hurricane Bill sent five-to-seven metre waves crashing over beach areas, flooding nearby roads and strewing them with rocks and seaweed. Police shut down highways leading to Peggy's Cove and Lawrencetown Beach, a popular surf spot near Halifax.

With files from Richard Foot
© Copyright (c) Canwest News Servic

[pojo]

Thanks!

My guesses were McGuire AFB, Dover AFB, and Langley AFB.

Never thought of Andrews

Andrews is much easier to work with than the ones listed above.

[george_r_1961]

Thanks!

My guesses were McGuire AFB, Dover AFB, and Langley AFB.

Never thought of Andrews

Andrews is much easier to work with than the ones listed above.

I live within sight of Langley AFB. Literally. Guess I was hoping to see the squadron there.

[Cookie]

ex bill is bringing heavy rain to the uk, not as much as first thought and some gusty winds on the west coast again not to strong.