ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#3821 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 23, 2009 7:46 am

Image

No more RECON missions are scheduled to fly into Bill.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#3822 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 23, 2009 7:48 am

758
WHXX01 KWBC 231241
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1241 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL (AL032009) 20090823 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090823 1200 090824 0000 090824 1200 090825 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 42.4N 65.4W 45.1N 61.5W 46.1N 55.0W 45.9N 47.0W
BAMD 42.4N 65.4W 45.6N 58.6W 47.4N 48.9W 48.1N 37.9W
BAMM 42.4N 65.4W 45.3N 59.8W 46.7N 51.5W 46.9N 42.0W
LBAR 42.4N 65.4W 46.1N 59.4W 48.4N 49.4W 48.5N 36.8W
SHIP 75KTS 65KTS 52KTS 35KTS
DSHP 75KTS 65KTS 50KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090825 1200 090826 1200 090827 1200 090828 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 45.2N 39.1W 46.0N 25.4W 50.3N 14.7W 55.7N 5.7W
BAMD 47.8N 26.3W 45.6N 8.6W 43.2N 4.7W 43.9N 2.1W
BAMM 46.7N 32.3W 46.6N 15.2W 47.3N 5.7W 51.5N 2.1E
LBAR .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 42.4N LONCUR = 65.4W DIRCUR = 35DEG SPDCUR = 27KT
LATM12 = 38.1N LONM12 = 68.4W DIRM12 = 17DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 34.1N LONM24 = 68.5W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 965MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 250NM RD34SE = 250NM RD34SW = 175NM RD34NW = 150NM

$$
NNNN

0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22482
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#3823 Postby wxman57 » Sun Aug 23, 2009 7:53 am

Latest decoded Halifax obs:

CYHZ|SP|231230|73.0F|32.0F|21.8%|120|019|024|2147483647.00|999|OVC|Rain , Mist
CYHZ|SP|231220|73.0F|32.0F|21.8%|110|021|026|2147483647.00|999|OVC|Light Rain , Mist
CYHZ| |231200|73.0F|73.0F|100.0%|110|019|026|29.71|999|OVC|Mist
CYHZ|SP|231149|73.0F|32.0F|21.8%|110|020|026|2147483647.00|999|OVC|Mist
CYHZ| |231100|73.0F|73.0F|100.0%|120|018|000|29.77|999|OVC|Mist
CYHZ|SP|231029|73.0F|32.0F|21.8%|130|014|025|2147483647.00|999||Light Shower(s) Rain , Mist
CYHZ|SP|231015|73.0F|32.0F|21.8%|130|011|019|2147483647.00|999|OVC|Light Shower(s) Rain , Mist
CYHZ| |231000|73.0F|73.0F|100.0%|140|016|024|29.83|999|OVC|Rain , Mist
CYHZ|SP|230934|73.0F|32.0F|21.8%|130|013|000|2147483647.00|999||Mist
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#3824 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 23, 2009 7:57 am

Image

As Bill departs, there goes our hurricane tracking in the Atlantic for sometime
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#3825 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 23, 2009 8:10 am

Image

Latest microwave
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22482
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#3826 Postby wxman57 » Sun Aug 23, 2009 8:56 am

Not much of a core remaining.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22482
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#3827 Postby wxman57 » Sun Aug 23, 2009 9:02 am

Close-up of Bill this morning:

Image
Last edited by wxman57 on Sun Aug 23, 2009 9:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

magnusson_r
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 9
Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2009 6:35 pm

Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#3828 Postby magnusson_r » Sun Aug 23, 2009 9:16 am

I've been in downtown Halifax the past 24 hours and I can say that there's nothing of significance to report here in the form of either wind or rain.

This has played out exactly the way Environment Canada and Peter Coade predicted on 18-19 August (see my earlier post): A much-diminished storm that has remained well offshore from Nova Scotia.

And I must say that I am somewhat disappointed by certain posters on here who reacted somewhat imperiously to my suggestion yesterday that this storm would be a non-event for Halifax.

Incidentally, Piers Corbyn was also right on the money when he predicted several days ago that Bill would track slightly to the right of projections. I'll be following Mr Corbyn's forecasts more closely from now on.
0 likes   

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re:

#3829 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 23, 2009 9:22 am

Maybe forever....just kidding of course.

This storm is the type alot of folks here on the boards always are wishing for....a long trakker that does most of its 'thing' on the open seas.

It's still August.....as we have seen, things can change very quickly in the basin.


HURAKAN wrote:Image

As Bill departs, there goes our hurricane tracking in the Atlantic for sometime
0 likes   

cyclonic chronic

#3830 Postby cyclonic chronic » Sun Aug 23, 2009 9:26 am

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44150

take a look at wind speed and pressure 24 hr plots.

73.8mph gusts
58.3mph sustained
28.96in (981)
40 FT waves
0 likes   

cyclonic chronic

#3831 Postby cyclonic chronic » Sun Aug 23, 2009 9:31 am

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44024

looks to be goin directly over this bouy in a few hrs. obs at this bouy should come up soon
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#3832 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 23, 2009 9:48 am

042
WTNT33 KNHC 231446
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

...BILL MOVING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONE'S COVE TO BONAVISTA. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSONS POND AROUND TO STONE'S COVE...AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BONAVISTA TO HARBOUR DEEP.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 43.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
150 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/HR...AND A
FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST
OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND BILL IS LIKELY TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL BE
IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA TODAY. SWELLS ALONG THE
U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...43.3N 64.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 33 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


616
WTNT43 KNHC 231448
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

AFTER THE LAST AIR FORCE MISSION INTO BILL....JUST BEFORE 1200
UTC...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO LOOK A LITTLE
LESS TROPICAL. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
105 KT OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT AROUND 1100 UTC. TYPICALLY THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A HIGHER INTENSITY OF GREATER THAN 75 KT.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE IS TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS...IT IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR IT TO TRANSPORT STRONG WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. GIVEN THAT...ALONG WITH THE DETERIORATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KT. BILL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITHIN A DAY OR SO AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH A BROADER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE BRITISH ISLES IN 3-4 DAYS.

CURRENT MOTION IS AROUND 045/29. BILL SHOULD CONTINUE ACCELERATING
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT BECOMES WELL EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS
LIKELY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF BILL
INTERACTS WITH THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SWELLS ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 43.3N 64.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 46.3N 59.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 49.0N 49.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/0000Z 50.8N 37.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/1200Z 52.5N 26.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/1200Z 57.0N 8.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#3833 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 23, 2009 9:49 am

Track stayed offshore as predicted with right turn under approaching front. Not an "attack" track onto Nova Scotia like Juan.
0 likes   

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#3834 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 23, 2009 9:55 am

With systems like this...huge wind fields and preparing to transition to extratropical...being in the actual eye is not as significant as, say, being in Andrew's eye wall. The conditions that were forecast for NS, NF, PEI are playing out....not less, not more....basically a widespread ts.

Sanibel wrote:Track stayed offshore as predicted with right turn under approaching front. Not an "attack" track onto Nova Scotia like Juan.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#3835 Postby Chacor » Sun Aug 23, 2009 9:57 am

WOCN31 CWHX 231500
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 12.00 NOON
ADT SUNDAY 23 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

AT 12 NOON ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
43.3 N AND LONGITUDE 64.0 W... ABOUT 90 NAUTICAL MILES OR 150 KM
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 29 KNOTS... 54 KM/H.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 140 KM/H AND
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 965 MB.

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BILL IS STILL VERY TROPICAL WITH A
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA DISPLACED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE WHICH IS ABOUT 100 KILOMETRES SOUTH
OF LUNENBURG COUNTY. THE OUTER RAINBANDS HAVE MOVED ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA AND INTO PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW BRUNSWICK.

THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE BILL PASSED BY JUST TO SOUTH OF THE
GEORGES BANK BUOY BETWEEN 08 UTC AND 09 UTC. THE LOWEST ATMOSPHERIC
PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE BUOY WAS 965 MBS WITH A PEAK 5-METRE
WIND AT 52 KNOTS. THE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT REPORTED
BY THE BUOY WAS 10.7 METRES BUT THE WAVE RECORDING EQUIPMENT
STOPPED REPORTING FOR TWO HOURS AT THE HEIGHT OF THE HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS.

HURRICANE BILL ALSO PASSED SOUTH OF THE BROWNS BANK BUOY BUT
REPORTS WERE LOST FROM THIS BUOY DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE
HURRICANE AS WELL. IT IS ESTIMATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
WERE NEAR 10 METRES AND WINDS WERE LIKELY STORM FORCE.

BY 12 UTC THE LAHAVE BANK BUOY WAS REPORTING WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE WITH A PEAK WIND AT 73 KNOTS AND SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS WERE 13.4 METRES WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT AT
26.4 METRES. THE CENTRE OF BILL IS EXPECTED VERY NEAR THIS
BUOY SHORTLY.

MUCH OF MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA IS BEING BATTERED BY RAINBANDS
REACHING OUT FROM HURRICANE BILL. THESE RAINBANDS ARE EVEN
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK REACHING NORTH OF FREDERICTON
AND MONCTON. RAINFALL RATES OF 15 TO 20 MILLIMETRES PER HOUR
HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THESE RAINBANDS MAKING DRIVING CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STREET AND ROAD
FLOODING.. UNDERMINE SOME ROAD SURFACES.. WASHOUTS AND FLOODED
BASEMENTS.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA ARE UP TO 60
MILLIMETRES UP TO THE NOON HOUR. SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK HAS
REPORTED 20 TO 40 MILLIMETRES. THESE RAINBANDS ARE NOW MOVING
INTO PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND CAPE BRETON.
THE RAINBANDS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TODAY.

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE REACHED THE COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA AS WELL. BACCARO POINT HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 36 KNOTS (67 KM/H) AND A MAXIMUM WIND AT 46 KNOTS
(85 KM/H). YARMOUTH AIRPORT HAD A PEAK GUST AT 38 KNOTS (70 KM/H).
LUNENBURG HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS AT 43 KNOTS (80 KM/H).
WINDS IN THE HALIFAX REGIONAL MUNICIPALITY HAVE REACHED 39 KNOTS
(72 KM/H). THERE ARE MEDIA REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN THE HRM AREA.
THERE ARE NUMEROUS REPORTED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
SOUTH SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MARITIMES AS BILL NEARS THE COASTLINE.
THE WIND WILL REACH NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT.

LARGE WAVES ARE BEGINNING TO REACH THE COASTLINE OF NOVA SCOTIA
AT NOON. THE BUOY OUTSIDE HALIFAX HARBOUR HAS REPORTED A MAXIMUM
WAVE HEIGHT OF 6.9 METRES THIS MORNING AND THIS IS FORECAST TO
REACH 5 TO 10 METRES ALONG THE ENTIRE COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE REPORTS THAT THE ROADWAY IN EASTERN PASSAGE IS UNDER
WATER. RCMP REPORTS LARGE SWELLS ARE REACHING THE PEGGYS COVE AREA.
ROADWAYS NEAR THE COAST ARE BEING CLOSED IN SEVERAL AREAS.
A COMBINATION OF THESE LARGE WAVES WITH THE FORECAST STORM
SURGE OF 0.5 TO 1.0 METRES MAY LEAD TO SHORELINE EROSION AND
DAMAGE TO WHARVES AND COASTAL STRUCTURES AS WELL AS GENERATING
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES. THESE LARGE WAVES AND
STORM SURGE WILL BE MOVING INTO NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT. THE ENVELOPE
OF HIGH SEAS CARRIED WITH HURRICANE BILL WILL STRIKE COASTAL
REGIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND FACING THE BRUNT OF BILL. A STORM SURGE
"WATCH" WILL SOON BE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS
OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE CENTRE OF BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
LAND THERE.

ATTENTION: SPECTATORS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO KEEP A SAFE DISTANCE
FROM THE SHORELINE DUE TO THE RAPID APPROACH OF LARGE WAVES.

PUBLIC AND MARINE INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THEIR REGION BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

END/NICKERSON/FOGARTY/MERCER
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8078
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#3836 Postby jasons2k » Sun Aug 23, 2009 10:00 am

magnusson_r wrote:I've been in downtown Halifax the past 24 hours and I can say that there's nothing of significance to report here in the form of either wind or rain.

This has played out exactly the way Environment Canada and Peter Coade predicted on 18-19 August (see my earlier post): A much-diminished storm that has remained well offshore from Nova Scotia.

And I must say that I am somewhat disappointed by certain posters on here who reacted somewhat imperiously to my suggestion yesterday that this storm would be a non-event for Halifax.

Incidentally, Piers Corbyn was also right on the money when he predicted several days ago that Bill would track slightly to the right of projections. I'll be following Mr Corbyn's forecasts more closely from now on.


Every forecast I saw, including the ones you mentioned, had Bill going east of Nova Scotia. Still, it's always a good idea to treat such storms with caution until they pass. One storm 'behaving' as forecasted does not mean the next one will. We have had certain posters learn this firsthand the hard way in the past, unfortunately.
0 likes   

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#3837 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 23, 2009 10:06 am

Even a broken clock is right twice a day....most official forecasts have been right on with this system. I agree with you....not every storm will go slightly east of forecast. What is the forecast reasoning behind that prediction....that is what separates the science from monday-morning-quarterbacking.


jasons wrote:
magnusson_r wrote:I've been in downtown Halifax the past 24 hours and I can say that there's nothing of significance to report here in the form of either wind or rain.

This has played out exactly the way Environment Canada and Peter Coade predicted on 18-19 August (see my earlier post): A much-diminished storm that has remained well offshore from Nova Scotia.

And I must say that I am somewhat disappointed by certain posters on here who reacted somewhat imperiously to my suggestion yesterday that this storm would be a non-event for Halifax.

Incidentally, Piers Corbyn was also right on the money when he predicted several days ago that Bill would track slightly to the right of projections. I'll be following Mr Corbyn's forecasts more closely from now on.


Every forecast I saw, including the ones you mentioned, had Bill going east of Nova Scotia. Still, it's always a good idea to treat such storms with caution until they pass. One storm 'behaving' as forecasted does not mean the next one will. We have had certain posters learn this firsthand the hard way in the past, unfortunately.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#3838 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 23, 2009 10:14 am

if you call passing something like 50 miles offshore (and it may still hit eastern NS) well offshore, you are in a different world than everyone else. Everyone else calls that a very near miss (especially from 3 days out)
0 likes   

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5792
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#3839 Postby MGC » Sun Aug 23, 2009 10:20 am

I think the NHC has done a good job with Bill and so have the models. There is still a chance that Bill will clip eastern NS. You just happen to be on the weak side of a rapidly moving TC that is also undergoing ET transition.....MGC
0 likes   

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#3840 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 23, 2009 10:27 am

The radius of tropical storm force winds (at least 34 kts) is actually larger for Bill than it was for Ike at landfall (except in NW quadrant).

Per 11am advisory on Bill:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
34 KT.......250NE 250SE 175SW 150NW


Per advisory close to landfall for Ike:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
34 KT.......230NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 39 guests