WPAC: TYPHOON VAMCO (11W)

[Cookie]

Have just spotted this.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.

[bombarderoazul]

It looks really good, maybe a typhoon in the future?

[beaufort12]

I know most eyes are on the Atlantic and the Gulf. There's also some action in the WPAC.

[bombarderoazul]

It is now tropical storm 11W

[P.K.]

Looks like this is about to be upgraded to a tropical storm in the next 30 min or so.

[Cookie]

yup its been named vamco

[CrazyC83]

With so much room to develop, this could definitely become something significant.

[theavocado]

WTPN32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 15.6N 157.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 157.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.0N 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.9N 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.8N 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.2N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.8N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.5N 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.7N 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 157.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1045 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO-TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C (MAKA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY
CONSOLIDATED AS CONVECTIVE BANDS BECAME MORE EXPANSIVE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE OUTFLOW ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
AND WEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE INCREASED OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE (WEAK) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
RESPECTIVELY. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 172238Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
PASS, AND ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TS 11W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE DESCRIBED IN PARA 2.A.
BY TAU 48, THE TRACK WILL FLATTEN SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AS THE
STEERING RIDGE ADJUSTS FURTHER TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM WATER AND UNDER LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 11W WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH FURTHER ADJUSTMENT OF THE STEERING RIDGE. DURING THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST, TS VAMCO WILL INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT GAINS
MORE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AIDED BY THE TUTT TO THE NORTH. THIS TRACK
FORECAST STARTS IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS THEN CROSSES TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72, FAVORING ECMWF.
FORECAST TEAM: ECHO.//
NNNN

[theavocado]

For now, it looks like it will make it around the STR before becoming problematic for Japan.

[btangy]

Tremendous upper level difluence over the system right now. Might also be currently aided by upper level trough interaction. If it stays away from the high shear zones, might get some very quick intensification. Good thing it's not headed for Guam, Saipan, and the other Mariana Islands.

[P.K.]

Upgraded to a STS earlier.

WTPQ21 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0910 VAMCO (0910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 17.2N 157.1E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 18.8N 156.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 201800UTC 20.5N 155.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 211800UTC 22.4N 155.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

[wxmann_91]

Tremendous upper level difluence over the system right now. Might also be currently aided by upper level trough interaction. If it stays away from the high shear zones, might get some very quick intensification. Good thing it's not headed for Guam, Saipan, and the other Mariana Islands.

I agree, and good call. Pinhole eye evident on VIS and to a lesser degree in IR. Of course JT will go with satellite estimates but I'd say this is at least Cat 1/2 now.

[bombarderoazul]

It's now a category 1 typhoon.

[cycloneye]

PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 009
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 157.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 157.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.5N 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.6N 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 20.7N 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.5N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.1N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 25.1N 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.5N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 157.4E.
TYPHOON(TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
NNNN

[Macrocane]

If the forecast verifies it will be the second cat 3 or greater typhoon since Kujira on this slow season.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0910 VAMCO (0910) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 17.3N 157.5E GOOD
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 18.0N 156.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 210000UTC 18.7N 156.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 220000UTC 21.2N 155.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[RL3AO]

Welcome back.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0910 VAMCO (0910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 17.7N 157.7E GOOD
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 18.9N 157.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 210600UTC 20.0N 157.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 220600UTC 22.2N 155.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[Chacor]

Up by 20 kt, down by 15 hPa in just six hours.

WTPQ21 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0910 VAMCO (0910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 18.0N 157.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 19.0N 157.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 211200UTC 21.4N 157.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 221200UTC 25.5N 156.3E 210NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

[CrazyC83]

It definitely seems to be undering RI right now.