WPAC: TYPHOON VAMCO (11W)

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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON VAMCO (11W)

#81 Postby theavocado » Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:53 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:Not to sound the annular alarm, but...
Doesnt it sorta look like it? I mean, large eye, decreasing feeder bands, not the deepest of convection and cooling water temps. I'm sure Im wrong, considering this is something that usually occurs among stronger cyclones, but it certainly looks like it, doesnt it?


Don't be so hard on yourself.
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#82 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:51 am

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Looking annular
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#83 Postby Chacor » Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:21 am

WTPQ21 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0910 VAMCO (0910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 33.6N 155.3E GOOD
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 44.0N 160.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 28KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 261200UTC 52.9N 175.3E 210NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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#84 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 24, 2009 10:11 am

Image

Continues to look very impressive
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#85 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 24, 2009 10:34 am

Image

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 33.6N 155.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 155.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 38.0N 157.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 43.9N 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 50.1N 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 34.7N 155.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1050 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND
251500Z.//
NNNN
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#86 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 24, 2009 1:09 pm

Image

Annular Vamco
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#87 Postby Chacor » Mon Aug 24, 2009 2:16 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0910 VAMCO (0910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 35.5N 155.9E GOOD
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 46.0N 162.4E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON VAMCO (11W)

#88 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:10 pm

This is a powerful typhoon at such a high latitude. Had it formed farther west this could have reached Tokyo at this intensity.

Trivial question: Has a tropical cyclone ever made landfall on Kamchatka/Russian territory? I'd imagine the easterlies are too strong up there to allow anything to penetrate but if they can hit Newfoundland...
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#89 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:20 pm

Image

WTPN32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 35.3N 155.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.3N 155.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 40.5N 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 46.6N 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 53.3N 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 36.6N 156.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 755 NM EAST-SOUTH-
EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS TY 11W
HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE AND SYMMETRY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) ALTHOUGH THE COMPACT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE EAST TO WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH IS
PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE TYPHOON HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND IS NOW
BEGINNING THE RECURVATURE PHASE OF ITS TRACK - AWAY FROM THE RIDGE
AXIS INTO STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TYPHOON VAMCO'S
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ERODE AND BECOME DECOUPLED FROM
THE LLCC OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS DUE TO STRONG VWS BEFORE IT
BECOMES FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL (ET) BY TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY AT ET. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON VAMCO (11W)

#90 Postby Iune » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:44 pm

somethingfunny wrote:This is a powerful typhoon at such a high latitude. Had it formed farther west this could have reached Tokyo at this intensity.

Trivial question: Has a tropical cyclone ever made landfall on Kamchatka/Russian territory? I'd imagine the easterlies are too strong up there to allow anything to penetrate but if they can hit Newfoundland...


A few:
Typhoon Kezia of 1950

Image

Typhoon Marie of 1954 (more commonly known as the Toyamaru typhoon http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toya_Maru)
Image

Typhoon Louise of 1955
Image

Typhoon Alice of 1958
Image

Typhoon Billie of 1961 came close
Image

Super Typhoon Shirley of 1965
Image

Typhoon Hope of 1976 neatly did
Image
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#91 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:15 pm

:uarrow: Very interesting!

Image

Feeling the latitude!
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#92 Postby Chacor » Mon Aug 24, 2009 9:20 pm

Image

WTPQ21 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0910 VAMCO (0910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 38.1N 156.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 25KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 49.3N 166.2E 130NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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#93 Postby Chacor » Mon Aug 24, 2009 9:25 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO) HAS RECURVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AND IS NOW RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL (ET) SYSTEM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS TY 11W'S EYE HAS BECOME MORE
ELONGATED AND ENLARGED AND THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
FURTHER ERODED, MOST NOTICEABLY ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEGUN TO DRAG BEHIND THE CONVECTION,
INDICATING AN IMMINENT DECOUPLING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS GREATLY
INCREASED OVER THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY POLEWARD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TYPHOON HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES WITH A
HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TYPHOON VAMCO WILL CONTINUE ON ITS RAPID ET TRANSITION. IT
WILL FURTHER ACCELERATE POLEWARD AND BECOME FULL ET, ALBEIT
MAINTAINING STORM-FORCE INTENSITY, BY TAU 24. AVAILABLE NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNISON WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE.//
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#94 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 25, 2009 4:20 am

JTWC has issued its final warning.

WTPN32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 41.6N 158.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 38 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 41.6N 158.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 48.1N 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 53.7N 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 43.2N 160.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 980 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KISKA, ALASKA
, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 38
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A
250625Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE THAT TYPHOON VAMCO IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND THAT HER EYE IS
STARTING TO ERODE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT FURTHER
ENGAGES WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENCOUNTERS HOSTILE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 12, TYPHOON
11W WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSITION INTO A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 22
FEET.//
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#95 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 25, 2009 4:21 am

Image

WTPQ21 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0910 VAMCO (0910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 41.4N 158.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 32KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260600UTC 52.7N 173.2E 130NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Expecting JMA to issue a final warning at 12z.
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#96 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 25, 2009 4:32 am

Still maintaining a decent amount of convection around its eye/centre.

Image
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#97 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 25, 2009 7:42 am

WTPQ21 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0910 VAMCO (0910) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 45.2N 161.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE 43KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 220NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 261200UTC 53.7N 178.3E 130NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Probably dead at 18z, rather than 12z.
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON VAMCO (11W)

#98 Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Aug 25, 2009 11:15 am

Aslkahuna wrote:Although WPAC seems to be better known for those large monsters, the region does get its share of compact storms as well, I've seen a number of them over the years.

Steve


I have seen small ones too. I notice that the EPAC gets a lot of compact ones too. I rarely see a large one there.
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#99 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 25, 2009 8:48 pm

Finally gone from JMA.

WTPQ21 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER STS 0910 VAMCO (0910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 51N 169E
MOVE NE 40KT
PRES 988HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST =
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#100 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 25, 2009 9:03 pm

Image

Still looks pretty decent.
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