CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA (11E)

[somethingfunny]

Any chance for Hilda to be Iniki's daughter?

The imagelink you posted updates automatically and as you can see the NOGAPS and GFDL are no longer calling for Hilda to angle into Oahu. Things could still change but at this time it appears Hilda will not be recurving until she clears well west of the islands.

[HURAKAN]

EP, 11, 2009082518, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1487W, 45, 1004, TS

No surprise

[HURAKAN]

000
WTPA45 PHFO 252051
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 25 2009

HILDA HAS BEEN STRUGGLING THIS MORNING AND THE MOST RECENT INFRARED
IMAGES SHOW WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE CENTER AND THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SYSTEM/S SOUTHERN QUADRANT. HILDA/S
PROBLEMS MAY BE DUE TO THE INGESTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE
SURROUNDING AIRMASS. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY WATER VAPOR
IMAGES...SATELLITE SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA AND THE PRESENCE
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES PUSHING
OUT FROM BENEATH THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SSMI 37 GHZ DATA FROM 1632
UTC SHOWED THE CENTER TO BE DISPLACED FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
POSITIONS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LOW CLOUDS LINES IN THE VISIBLE
IMAGES. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 65 KT TO 45 KT. CIMSS 1600
UTC SATCON CAME IN AT 35 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1600 UTC
SHOWED 40 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES...WILL GO WITH AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KT THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT HIGH.

HILDA HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
ORIENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS RESULTED IN A MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE STEERING FLOW THUS THE MOTION HAS BEEN TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A MID- AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF HILDA WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. OBJECTIVE AIDS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY WITH MOST OF THE KEY
DYNAMICAL MODELS CLUSTERED RELATIVELY TIGHT. NOGAPS IS THE NORTHERN
OUTLIER BUT HAS A LESS DRASTIC NORTHWEST TURN THAN BEFORE AND KEEPS
HILDA SOUTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
STAYS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS AND HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY DUE TO THE SHIFT IN INITIAL
POSITION.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE DRY AIR
IMPACTS...HILDA IS IN A MILD SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH MORE THAN
ADEQUATE SST/S. IF THE DRY AIR INFLUENCE EASES...STRENGTHENING
SHOULD OCCUR AT LEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN
HILDA. SHIPS...HWRF AND GHMI ALL INDICATE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.
THUS...THE KEY UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDE THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF DRY
AIR AND THE STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR BEYOND DAY 3. FOR NOW...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING TO 72 HOURS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST BEYOND
72 HOURS DUE TO SHEAR EFFECTS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 14.1N 149.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 13.8N 150.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 13.3N 151.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 13.0N 153.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 13.0N 155.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 13.6N 158.8W 60 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 14.5N 163.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 16.1N 167.3W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[clfenwi]

Pretty sad looking about three hours ago, but a little bit better now:

[HURAKAN]

474
WHXX01 KMIA 260055
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0055 UTC WED AUG 26 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE HILDA (EP112009) 20090826 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090826 0000 090826 1200 090827 0000 090827 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.9N 149.4W 13.4N 150.5W 13.0N 152.0W 13.1N 153.5W
BAMD 13.9N 149.4W 13.7N 151.3W 13.5N 153.2W 13.2N 155.0W
BAMM 13.9N 149.4W 13.6N 151.1W 13.4N 152.7W 13.1N 154.3W
LBAR 13.9N 149.4W 13.3N 151.0W 13.3N 152.7W 13.4N 154.3W
SHIP 40KTS 39KTS 42KTS 47KTS
DSHP 40KTS 39KTS 42KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090828 0000 090829 0000 090830 0000 090831 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 155.0W 14.7N 158.9W 16.2N 163.5W 17.8N 167.3W
BAMD 13.0N 156.7W 12.8N 159.5W 12.6N 163.0W 13.0N 167.2W
BAMM 13.0N 156.1W 13.1N 159.7W 13.2N 164.0W 13.9N 169.1W
LBAR 13.8N 155.9W 14.4N 158.7W 15.2N 161.5W 15.5N 164.3W
SHIP 52KTS 55KTS 56KTS 54KTS
DSHP 52KTS 55KTS 56KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.9N LONCUR = 149.4W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 147.9W DIRM12 = 251DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 146.6W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Convection weak and small in coverage

[brunota2003]

Maybe if she gets bumped down, it'll encourage her to do more.

[HURAKAN]

229
WTPA35 PHFO 260254
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 PM HST TUE AUG 25 2009

...HILDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...MODEST STRENGTHENING STILL
POSSIBLE...

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.8 WEST OR ABOUT
545 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HONOLULU HAWAII.

HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A WESTWARD MOTION
IS FORECAST FROM 36 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.7N 149.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[clfenwi]

WTPA45 PHFO 260302
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 PM HST TUE AUG 25 2009

AT THE MOMENT...HILDA APPEARS TO BE A FAILING TROPICAL CYCLONE.
DESPITE MODEST SHEAR...ABOUT 5 TO 10 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST...DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF HILDA HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO PERSIST.
THE PRESUMED CAUSE MAY BE THE INGESTION OF DRIER AIR AS SUGGESTED
BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND SATELLITE SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER
DATA. A LATE MORNING BURST DISSIPATED LEAVING A CIRRUS CANOPY TO
OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER. RECENT IMAGES SHOW NEW
CUMULONIMBUS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE PRESUMED CENTER SO HILDA CANNOT
BE WRITTEN OFF JUST YET. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO
RANGE FROM 45 TO 65 KT. CIMSS ADT CAME IN AT 47 KT. AN ASCAT PASS
FROM AROUND 2000 UTC SHOWED LOWER WINDS SINCE THE MORNING QUIKSCAT
PASS AND 35 KT ONLY IN THE NW QUADRANT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 40 KT.

HILDA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS HILDA MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL OBJECTIVE AIDS...INCLUDING
GFDL...HWRF AND TVCN...ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO HWRF AND TVCN AND HAS BEEN NUDGED
SOUTH SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOGAPS CONTINUES TO BE
THE NORTHERN OUTLIER BUT KEEPS HILDA SOUTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ASIDE FROM PRESUMED DRY
AIR EFFECTS...HILDA CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN A MODEST SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE SST/S. SINCE THE OBJECTIVE AIDS
SHOW CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...IT IS EXPECTED FOR NOW THAT HILDA
WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR EFFECTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IMPACTING HILDA BEYOND 72
HOURS. THUS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING INITIALLY
FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND PREVENT IT
FROM REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS FORECAST IS ON THE LOW END
OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 13.7N 149.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 13.3N 151.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 12.8N 152.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 12.6N 154.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 12.7N 155.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 13.1N 159.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 13.9N 163.9W 50 KT
120HR VT 31/0000Z 15.9N 168.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[clfenwi]

Cyclone fail?

[Kingarabian]

Cyclone fail?

Wow that thing looks gross. LOL. Yes Cyclone fail.

[HURAKAN]

000
WTPA45 PHFO 260900
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 25 2009

HILDA...IN SPITE OF MINIMAL SHEAR AND WARM SST/S...IS BARELY HANGING
ON. THE POSSIBLE REASON FOR THE ONGOING STRUGGLE IS THE INTAKE OF
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR THAT SURROUNDS HILDA TO THE NORTH...AS DEPICTED
BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FIX AGENCIES AND AN ADT ALL
REPORT A 24 HOUR WEAKENING TREND WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KT...THE LATTER KEPT HIGH DUE TO DVORAK
CONSTRAINTS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE STORM CENTER
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...SO RATHER THAN DROPPING THE INTENSITY
WITH THIS FORECAST...WILL KEEP IT AT 40 KT.

HILDA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...THE RESULT OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FLOWING AROUND A HIGH CENTERED NORTHWEST OF
HAWAII. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OBJECTIVE AIDS THAT
HILDA WILL REMAIN ON THIS COURSE FOR 24 HOURS WHILST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. BEYOND 24 HOURS...GLOBAL
MODELS RETREAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH...ALLOWING HILDA TO ASSUME A
WESTERLY COURSE THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK
THEREAFTER. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDES INDICATE TO A DEGREE THAT
THIS WILL OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF A
SOMEWHAT TIGHT AID ENVELOP AND IS CLOSEST TO CONSENSUS TVCN AND THE
REGIONAL HWRF MODEL.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A WORK IN PROGRESS. IT MAINTAINS THE
SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN EQUALLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING TREND THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS... INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN HILDA. ABOUT HALF OF
THE INTENSITY AIDS MAINTAIN OR SLOWLY WEAKEN HILDA...WHILE THE
OTHER HALF SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE AIDS AS DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEP HILDA BELOW THE 65 KNOT HURRICANE
THRESHOLD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS LGEM THROUGH 72 HOURS THEN
ENDS UP NEAR HWRF ICON AND IVCN AT 120 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 13.6N 150.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 13.2N 151.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 12.8N 153.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 12.7N 154.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 12.8N 156.7W 45 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 13.5N 161.3W 50 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 14.5N 165.7W 50 KT
120HR VT 31/0600Z 16.3N 170.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER CRAIG

[HURAKAN]

000
WTPA35 PHFO 261442
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 AM HST WED AUG 26 2009

...HILDA MOVING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON A TRACK FAR SOUTH OF
HAWAII...

AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 151.3 WEST OR ABOUT
505 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS COURSE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
TROPICAL STORM IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN TO THE WEST THROUGH 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
SMALL INCREASE FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.4N 151.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CRAIG

[HurricaneRobert]

She's looking good again. I think the center is under convection, though it is really deep on the SW side.

[clfenwi]

WTPA35 PHFO 262041
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
1100 AM HST WED AUG 26 2009

...HILDA CONTINUES ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK FAR SOUTH OF
HAWAII...

AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 151.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 710 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. HILDA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE DUE WEST IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.1N 151.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER TANABE




WTPA45 PHFO 262109
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
1100 AM HST WED AUG 26 2009

THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH FLARED UP OVERNIGHT HAS WANED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. T-NUMBERS
HAVE PRETTY MUCH LEVELED OFF IN THE 2.5 TO 3.0 RANGE OVER THE PAST
18 HOURS. THE QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING BARELY CAUGHT THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE HILDA. WHILE DATA RELIABILITY AT THE EXTREME EDGE OF
PASS IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER...THE PASS DID SHOW 40 KNOT WINDS JUST
EAST OF THE APPARENT CENTER. WITHOUT OVERRIDING EVIDENCE TO STRAY
FROM PERSISTENCE...WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY CONSTANT AT 40
KT.

TRACK POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS WERE RE-BESTED TO THE SOUTH
BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THIS SOUTHWARD SHIFTS FALLS BETTER IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT POSITION. HILDA/S WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND AND BE
REPLACED BY A WEAK LOW AT THE SURFACE AND TROUGH ALOFT...WHICH WILL
ALLOW HILDA TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. GIVEN THE
SOUTHWARD REBEST OF PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND TRACK VERIFICATION WHICH
A NORTH BIAS OF NEARLY ALL THE GUIDANCE THUS FAR...HAVE SHIFTED THE
TRACK FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THE FORECAST FALLS WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...SOUTH OF MOST CONSENSUS
TRACKS WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF TVCC WHICH LIES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS
MADE IN FORWARD MOTION.

MAJORITY INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SHIPS...HWFI...AND LGEM ARE STILL
HOLDING ON TO STRENGTHENING BEYOND 24 HOURS. PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE LOWERED THE STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT 5 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED SHEAR IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
FORECAST REFLECTS PERSISTENCE AND NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS.

FORECAST TAKES HILDA JUST SOUTH OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AS A TROPICAL
STORM IN DAYS 4 THROUGH 5. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WHETHER ANY
WATCHES ARE WARRANTED FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 13.1N 151.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 12.9N 152.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 12.7N 154.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 12.6N 156.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 12.8N 158.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 13.3N 163.1W 45 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 14.6N 168.4W 40 KT
120HR VT 31/1800Z 16.9N 172.6W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER TANABE

[clfenwi]

The tortured life of Hilda continues

[Chacor]

Not even a blob now, more of a single peanut-shaped cloud.

[HURAKAN]

EP, 11, 2009082700, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1513W, 30, 1008, TD

[Chacor]

WTPA45 PHFO 270240
TCDCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 PM HST WED AUG 26 2009

HILDA STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION TODAY AND SINCE THE MID
MORNING FAILED TO KEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. OVER
THE PAST 3 TO 4 HOURS...THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECAME
EXPOSED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLARE UP AND DOWN NORTH
THROUGH WEST OF CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND NOON CAUGHT THE
WESTERN HALF OF HILDA AND SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. SAB AND PHFO FIXES CAME IN AT 2.0. THE
JTWC FIX WAS CONSTRAINED TO 2.5. WITH NO INDICATION OF 35 KT WINDS
AND THE LACK OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION...HAVE DOWNGRADED HILDA
INTO A DEPRESSION AT 30 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR HILDA HAS BEEN CHALLENGING THROUGHOUT.
FIRST AND EARLY ON...HILDA MANAGED TO INTENSIFY IN THE FACE OF 15
KT SHEAR...AND THEN WEAKENED WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR IN THE PAST 36
HOURS. THE PRESUMED FACTOR IN WEAKENING REMAINS THE INGEST OF
DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH. WITH DRY AIRMASS TO THE NORTH REMAINING IN
PLACE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...HAVE
MADE NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. HILDA IS NOW
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36
HOURS THEN DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS. THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER AND
MOVEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TOWARD THE WEST AS SHOWN IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE TODAY SHOWS SHEAR IS ALREADY TAKING ITS TOLL. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF HWRF AND SHIPS...THE MAJORITY OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOUT FLAT LINED.

HILDA STUBBORNLY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND
IS NOW BELOW 13 DEGREES NORTH. HILDA ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED
DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
ALREADY ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...SAW NO
REASON TO MAKE MUCH ADJUSTMENTS. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS NEGLIGIBLE
CHANGES THROUGH 36 HOURS AND POSITIONS BEYOND WERE REMOVED
DUE TO THE FORECAST DISSIPATION AT 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 12.9N 151.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 12.8N 152.9W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 28/0000Z 12.7N 154.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 28/1200Z 12.7N 156.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER TANABE

[somethingfunny]

Well, the models sure didn't anticipate that....this goes to show that we still have a long way to go. From a potential hurricane with Hawaii on the edge of the forecast cone to this mess....I hope that Danny meets a similar fate. As frustrating as it is when the models fail to detect cyclogenesis and rapid intensification cycles, it's just as frustrating when they fail to detect inhibiting factors.