CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA (11E)
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HURAKAN
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474
WTPA45 PHFO 241450
TCDCP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 AM HST MON AUG 24 2009
HILDA/S SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT...AND
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN A CONSENSUS 3.5 FROM THE
FIX AGENCIES...WITH AN ADT VALUE OF 3.4 FROM UW-CIMSS AT 1130 UTC.
WITH THIS CONSENSUS...AND LACK OF MICROWAVE PASSES TO AID WITH THE
ANALYSIS OF THE INNER STRUCTURE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE
HELD AT 55 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11...AS HILDA REMAINS IN DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF AN EAST-WEST RIDGE ALOFT ALONG 20N...AND A
SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 35N. THIS SETUP IS PROVIDING MODERATE EAST TO
NORTHEAST SHEAR OVER HILDA...AND IS INHIBITING OUTFLOW IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SETTING EXPECTED. AFTER 36 HOURS...A MID-LEVEL HIGH
CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF HILDA WILL BECOME LESS INFLUENTIAL...AND
A MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS BY SLOWING
HILDA/S FORWARD MOTION...AND BY TURNING HILDA ON A TRACK SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN...AND TO THE LEFT OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSE TO
THE TVCN.
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES HILDA OVER WATERS SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO
SUPPORT A HURRICANE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
SHEAR HAS BEEN THE INHIBITING FACTOR IN INTENSIFICATION THUS FAR...
BUT WITH HILDA ABLE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE FACE OF MODERATE
SHEAR OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...
WITH HILDA BECOMING A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY. SOME EASING OF THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST ON DAYS 3 AND 4...AND SHOULD ALLOW
HILDA TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO BOTH SHIPS AND LGEM...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THESE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THEIR INTENSIFICATION RATE FROM THE
PREVIOUS TWO RUNS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 14.4N 145.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 14.5N 147.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 14.7N 148.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 14.8N 150.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 14.6N 151.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 14.4N 154.6W 70 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 14.3N 157.4W 70 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 14.4N 160.6W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
025
WTPA35 PHFO 241435
TCPCP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 AM HST MON AUG 24 2009
...HILDA CONTINUES MOVING WEST ON A TRACK WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII...
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.4 WEST OR ABOUT
740 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 950 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH. HILDA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
HILDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.4N 145.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
WTPA45 PHFO 241450
TCDCP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 AM HST MON AUG 24 2009
HILDA/S SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT...AND
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN A CONSENSUS 3.5 FROM THE
FIX AGENCIES...WITH AN ADT VALUE OF 3.4 FROM UW-CIMSS AT 1130 UTC.
WITH THIS CONSENSUS...AND LACK OF MICROWAVE PASSES TO AID WITH THE
ANALYSIS OF THE INNER STRUCTURE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE
HELD AT 55 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11...AS HILDA REMAINS IN DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF AN EAST-WEST RIDGE ALOFT ALONG 20N...AND A
SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 35N. THIS SETUP IS PROVIDING MODERATE EAST TO
NORTHEAST SHEAR OVER HILDA...AND IS INHIBITING OUTFLOW IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SETTING EXPECTED. AFTER 36 HOURS...A MID-LEVEL HIGH
CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF HILDA WILL BECOME LESS INFLUENTIAL...AND
A MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS BY SLOWING
HILDA/S FORWARD MOTION...AND BY TURNING HILDA ON A TRACK SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN...AND TO THE LEFT OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSE TO
THE TVCN.
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES HILDA OVER WATERS SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO
SUPPORT A HURRICANE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
SHEAR HAS BEEN THE INHIBITING FACTOR IN INTENSIFICATION THUS FAR...
BUT WITH HILDA ABLE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE FACE OF MODERATE
SHEAR OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...
WITH HILDA BECOMING A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY. SOME EASING OF THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST ON DAYS 3 AND 4...AND SHOULD ALLOW
HILDA TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO BOTH SHIPS AND LGEM...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THESE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THEIR INTENSIFICATION RATE FROM THE
PREVIOUS TWO RUNS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 14.4N 145.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 14.5N 147.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 14.7N 148.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 14.8N 150.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 14.6N 151.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 14.4N 154.6W 70 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 14.3N 157.4W 70 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 14.4N 160.6W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
025
WTPA35 PHFO 241435
TCPCP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 AM HST MON AUG 24 2009
...HILDA CONTINUES MOVING WEST ON A TRACK WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII...
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.4 WEST OR ABOUT
740 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 950 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH. HILDA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
HILDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.4N 145.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
0 likes
Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM HILDA (11E)
This year reminds me a little of the 1994 season when there were a lot of storm in the CPAC. Although Felicia was a bit of a scare earlier in the year.
0 likes
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM HILDA (11E)
548
WTPA35 PHFO 242056
TCPCP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
1100 AM HST MON AUG 24 2009
...HILDA STRUGGLING A BIT UNDER VERTICAL SHEAR THIS MORNING...
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.9 WEST OR
ABOUT 690 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 905 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. HILDA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SOME SLOWING OF ITS FORWARD SPEED. FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS...
HILDA IS PROJECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEYOND 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.9N 145.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
1100 AM HST MON AUG 24 2009
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT TROPICAL STORM HILDA THIS
MORNING. INITIAL VISIBLE IMAGES REVEALED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
APPEARED TO BE A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN INFRARED DATA
SUGGESTED. THIS HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY 37 GHZ MICROWAVE DATA FROM
1543 UTC AND 1637 UTC. THUS...THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TOWARD THE NORTH ACCORDINGLY. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
OCCUPIES THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION THOUGH
RECENT IMAGES ALSO SHOW A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TOWARD THE SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED IN THE
NORTH WHICH ALSO INDICATES THE INFLUENCE OF VERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 55 KT FROM CPHC...JTWC AND SAB.
SATCON AND AMSU ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 50 KT AND ADT INDICATED 40 KT.
FOR NOW...WILL HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55 KT THOUGH THIS MAY
BE GENEROUS.
HILDA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON THE
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS...THE GFS
SHOWS THAT HILDA WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPART MORE OF A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING CURRENT. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE
AIDS...INCLUDING THE TRUSTED HWRF...GFDL AND CONSENUS ARE IN
AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND IS CLOSE TO THE
TRUSTED AIDS THOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE
NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW A SLOWER MOTION AND A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WHILE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT AT THE
MOMENT...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY OBVIOUS FACTOR THAT WOULD
PREVENT HILDA FROM EVENTUALLY BECOMING A HURRICANE ALONG ITS CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK. OBJECTIVE AIDS SHOW WIDE VARIATION WITH GHMI
SHOWING 90 KT AND HWRF INDICATING 50 KT BY 120 HOURS. FOR NOW...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT NEAR-TERM WEAKENING BUT A RESUMPTION OF
SLOW INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 36 HOURS SINCE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO EASE. SST/S WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 27C AND 28C SO NO
PROBLEM HERE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 14.9N 145.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 15.0N 147.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 15.1N 148.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 15.0N 150.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 14.8N 151.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 14.5N 154.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 14.9N 156.9W 70 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 15.7N 160.3W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
WTPA35 PHFO 242056
TCPCP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
1100 AM HST MON AUG 24 2009
...HILDA STRUGGLING A BIT UNDER VERTICAL SHEAR THIS MORNING...
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.9 WEST OR
ABOUT 690 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 905 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. HILDA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SOME SLOWING OF ITS FORWARD SPEED. FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS...
HILDA IS PROJECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEYOND 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.9N 145.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
1100 AM HST MON AUG 24 2009
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT TROPICAL STORM HILDA THIS
MORNING. INITIAL VISIBLE IMAGES REVEALED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
APPEARED TO BE A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN INFRARED DATA
SUGGESTED. THIS HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY 37 GHZ MICROWAVE DATA FROM
1543 UTC AND 1637 UTC. THUS...THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TOWARD THE NORTH ACCORDINGLY. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
OCCUPIES THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION THOUGH
RECENT IMAGES ALSO SHOW A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TOWARD THE SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED IN THE
NORTH WHICH ALSO INDICATES THE INFLUENCE OF VERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 55 KT FROM CPHC...JTWC AND SAB.
SATCON AND AMSU ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 50 KT AND ADT INDICATED 40 KT.
FOR NOW...WILL HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55 KT THOUGH THIS MAY
BE GENEROUS.
HILDA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON THE
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS...THE GFS
SHOWS THAT HILDA WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPART MORE OF A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING CURRENT. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE
AIDS...INCLUDING THE TRUSTED HWRF...GFDL AND CONSENUS ARE IN
AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND IS CLOSE TO THE
TRUSTED AIDS THOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE
NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW A SLOWER MOTION AND A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WHILE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT AT THE
MOMENT...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY OBVIOUS FACTOR THAT WOULD
PREVENT HILDA FROM EVENTUALLY BECOMING A HURRICANE ALONG ITS CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK. OBJECTIVE AIDS SHOW WIDE VARIATION WITH GHMI
SHOWING 90 KT AND HWRF INDICATING 50 KT BY 120 HOURS. FOR NOW...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT NEAR-TERM WEAKENING BUT A RESUMPTION OF
SLOW INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 36 HOURS SINCE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO EASE. SST/S WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 27C AND 28C SO NO
PROBLEM HERE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 14.9N 145.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 15.0N 147.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 15.1N 148.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 15.0N 150.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 14.8N 151.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 14.5N 154.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 14.9N 156.9W 70 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 15.7N 160.3W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM HILDA (11E)
Uneventful day for Hilda so far, as she presses westward, fighting that mean 'ol shear.
0 likes
Re:
Chacor wrote:The last EPac named storm to survive into the NWP was Dora in 1999, crossing over on 20 August 1999 and surviving as a TS/TD until 26 August 1999.
Is it looking like there's anything that would keep The Hilda from making it to the International Dateline?
0 likes
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
217
WHXX01 KMIA 250104
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0104 UTC TUE AUG 25 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE HILDA (EP112009) 20090825 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090825 0000 090825 1200 090826 0000 090826 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 146.6W 15.0N 147.4W 15.1N 148.2W 15.1N 149.2W
BAMD 14.9N 146.6W 15.0N 148.5W 14.5N 150.4W 13.5N 152.4W
BAMM 14.9N 146.6W 14.9N 147.7W 14.6N 149.1W 14.2N 150.5W
LBAR 14.9N 146.6W 15.1N 148.4W 15.5N 150.0W 15.8N 151.8W
SHIP 50KTS 49KTS 52KTS 55KTS
DSHP 50KTS 49KTS 52KTS 55KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090827 0000 090828 0000 090829 0000 090830 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 150.4W 16.4N 152.8W 17.9N 157.1W 19.4N 162.3W
BAMD 12.3N 154.3W 9.8N 157.4W 7.5N 160.7W 5.5N 166.1W
BAMM 13.8N 151.9W 12.6N 154.6W 12.1N 157.8W 12.1N 162.1W
LBAR 15.7N 153.3W 15.9N 155.8W 16.3N 158.2W 17.0N 161.1W
SHIP 58KTS 63KTS 63KTS 61KTS
DSHP 58KTS 63KTS 63KTS 61KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 146.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 144.5W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 142.5W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 65NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 65NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KMIA 250104
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0104 UTC TUE AUG 25 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE HILDA (EP112009) 20090825 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090825 0000 090825 1200 090826 0000 090826 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 146.6W 15.0N 147.4W 15.1N 148.2W 15.1N 149.2W
BAMD 14.9N 146.6W 15.0N 148.5W 14.5N 150.4W 13.5N 152.4W
BAMM 14.9N 146.6W 14.9N 147.7W 14.6N 149.1W 14.2N 150.5W
LBAR 14.9N 146.6W 15.1N 148.4W 15.5N 150.0W 15.8N 151.8W
SHIP 50KTS 49KTS 52KTS 55KTS
DSHP 50KTS 49KTS 52KTS 55KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090827 0000 090828 0000 090829 0000 090830 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 150.4W 16.4N 152.8W 17.9N 157.1W 19.4N 162.3W
BAMD 12.3N 154.3W 9.8N 157.4W 7.5N 160.7W 5.5N 166.1W
BAMM 13.8N 151.9W 12.6N 154.6W 12.1N 157.8W 12.1N 162.1W
LBAR 15.7N 153.3W 15.9N 155.8W 16.3N 158.2W 17.0N 161.1W
SHIP 58KTS 63KTS 63KTS 61KTS
DSHP 58KTS 63KTS 63KTS 61KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 146.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 144.5W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 142.5W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 65NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 65NM
$$
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM HILDA (11E)
25/0000 UTC 14.8N 146.7W T3.5/3.5 HILDA -- Central Pacific
EP, 11, 2009082500, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1466W, 50, 1001, TS
Intensity down to 50 knots
EP, 11, 2009082500, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1466W, 50, 1001, TS
Intensity down to 50 knots
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Derek Ortt
-
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455
WTPA35 PHFO 250248
TCPCP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 PM HST MON AUG 24 2009
...HILDA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT INTENSIFICATION STILL EXPECTED...
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.1 WEST OR ABOUT
625 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 835 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION AND SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.9N 147.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
795
WTPA45 PHFO 250250
TCDCP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 PM HST MON AUG 24 2009
HILDA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE
SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO THE SHEAR. RECENT
IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR MAY BE EASING DUE TO A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD SPREADING OF THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO A RAINBAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WITH PULSING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
DVORAK INTENSITY VALUES CAME IN AT 55 KT FROM CPHC...JTWC AND SAB.
CIMSS SATCON AND ADT VALUES CAME IN AT 52 KT AND 39 KT
RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES ALONG WITH THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION...WILL DROP
THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
HILDA CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT DAY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 24
HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN ANTICYCLONE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HILDA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PUT A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING CURRENT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM 24
THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...A MID- AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
OBJECTIVE AIDS...INCLUDING HWRF...GFDL AND TCON ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. NOGAPS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PRESENT THE NORTHERN
OUTLIER TRACKS...PRESUMABLY DUE TO A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION WHICH
WOULD BUY TIME FOR THE PROJECTED MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
DEVELOP AND INDUCE A SHARPER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. WHILE THE BULK
OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DO NOT REFLECT THIS
SOLUTION...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR.
VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN THE INHIBITING FACTOR FOR INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE RELAXING AND HILDA SHOULD RESUME
INTENSIFICATION. SST VALUES WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE AT 27C
TO 28C. THE MAIN OBJECTIVE AIDS SHOW BETTER CONSISTENCY THIS TIME
WITH GHMI...HWRF AND SHIPS ALL INDICATING HURRICANE STRENGTH
BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HILDA TO REACH
HURRICANE INTENSITY AT AROUND 72 HOURS...AND 75 KT BY 120 HOURS.
THIS IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 14.9N 147.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 15.0N 148.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 14.9N 149.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 14.8N 151.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 14.5N 152.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 14.3N 154.7W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 15.1N 157.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 16.6N 161.3W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
WTPA35 PHFO 250248
TCPCP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 PM HST MON AUG 24 2009
...HILDA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT INTENSIFICATION STILL EXPECTED...
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.1 WEST OR ABOUT
625 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 835 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION AND SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.9N 147.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
795
WTPA45 PHFO 250250
TCDCP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 PM HST MON AUG 24 2009
HILDA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE
SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO THE SHEAR. RECENT
IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR MAY BE EASING DUE TO A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD SPREADING OF THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO A RAINBAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WITH PULSING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
DVORAK INTENSITY VALUES CAME IN AT 55 KT FROM CPHC...JTWC AND SAB.
CIMSS SATCON AND ADT VALUES CAME IN AT 52 KT AND 39 KT
RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES ALONG WITH THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION...WILL DROP
THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
HILDA CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT DAY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 24
HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN ANTICYCLONE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HILDA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PUT A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING CURRENT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM 24
THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...A MID- AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
OBJECTIVE AIDS...INCLUDING HWRF...GFDL AND TCON ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. NOGAPS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PRESENT THE NORTHERN
OUTLIER TRACKS...PRESUMABLY DUE TO A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION WHICH
WOULD BUY TIME FOR THE PROJECTED MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
DEVELOP AND INDUCE A SHARPER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. WHILE THE BULK
OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DO NOT REFLECT THIS
SOLUTION...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR.
VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN THE INHIBITING FACTOR FOR INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE RELAXING AND HILDA SHOULD RESUME
INTENSIFICATION. SST VALUES WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE AT 27C
TO 28C. THE MAIN OBJECTIVE AIDS SHOW BETTER CONSISTENCY THIS TIME
WITH GHMI...HWRF AND SHIPS ALL INDICATING HURRICANE STRENGTH
BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HILDA TO REACH
HURRICANE INTENSITY AT AROUND 72 HOURS...AND 75 KT BY 120 HOURS.
THIS IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 14.9N 147.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 15.0N 148.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 14.9N 149.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 14.8N 151.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 14.5N 152.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 14.3N 154.7W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 15.1N 157.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 16.6N 161.3W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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Iceman56
Re:
I'd be very interested in hearing your expert analysis on why it wasn't 55 knots. Can you please repost it here, or post a link for those of us that would like to consider your opinions?
Derek Ortt wrote:it never should have been 55KT earlier for the reasons I explained in the discussion this morning. It looks like a legit 50KT now though
0 likes
Re: Re:
Iceman56 wrote:I'd be very interested in hearing your expert analysis on why it wasn't 55 knots. Can you please repost it here, or post a link for those of us that would like to consider your opinions?Derek Ortt wrote:it never should have been 55KT earlier for the reasons I explained in the discussion this morning. It looks like a legit 50KT now though
It was due to disagreement in placing the center this morning. Derek placed it further to the north than everyone else (more to the edge of convection rather than the center), which in turn caused his intensity estimate to be lower.
If you look at the jump in latitude between advisories 9 & 10, you see the CPHC's position change towards what Derek was preferring.
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Kingarabian
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982
WTPA45 PHFO 250911
TCDCP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
1100 PM HST MON AUG 24 2009
HILDA IS STILL IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH POORER OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE 15 KT VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE EAST IS ABOUT 5 KT LESS THAN SIX
HOURS AGO...WHICH PROBABLY EXPLAINS THE CONTINUED SLOW NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD SPREADING OF THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS LIMITED TO A SINGLE CLUSTER JUST SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED
CIRCULATION CENTER. BOTH SAB AND JTWC CAME IN WITH CURRENT
INTENSITIES OF 3.5 WHILE PHFO INCREASED THE CURRENT INTENSITY TO
4.0. CONSIDERING THAT HILDA IS STILL BATTLING VERTICAL SHEAR...WILL
STICK WITH THE MAJORITY AND KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KT.
HILDA IS MOVING TO THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 8
KT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HILDA WILL BE IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF A MID AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FARTHER TO THE
NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS SHIFT THE RIDGE ALOFT TO OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF
HAWAII...WHICH SHOULD TURN HILDA ON A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
COURSE FROM 24 TO 72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS BUT IN GENERAL DIG AN UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWARD CLOSE TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD
WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF HILDA...ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO ASSUME A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE. THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH FOLLOWS
THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS ALMOST IN LOCK STEP WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
GUNA TCON AND TVCN. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT NOGAPS CONTINUES
TO TAKE HILDA ON A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AFTER 48 HOURS. IT IS STILL
TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS IS A CORRECT MOVE.
THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL RELAXATION OF THE
VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENTLY OVER HILDA...SO THERE REMAINS A CHANCE
THAT HILDA WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS GHMI...HWRF AND SHIPS WHICH STRENGTHEN
HILDA TO A HURRICANE AFTER 48 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 14.8N 147.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 14.7N 149.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 14.6N 150.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 14.4N 152.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 14.2N 153.4W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 14.3N 156.2W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 15.0N 159.6W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 17.0N 163.0W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG
WTPA45 PHFO 250911
TCDCP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
1100 PM HST MON AUG 24 2009
HILDA IS STILL IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH POORER OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE 15 KT VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE EAST IS ABOUT 5 KT LESS THAN SIX
HOURS AGO...WHICH PROBABLY EXPLAINS THE CONTINUED SLOW NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD SPREADING OF THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS LIMITED TO A SINGLE CLUSTER JUST SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED
CIRCULATION CENTER. BOTH SAB AND JTWC CAME IN WITH CURRENT
INTENSITIES OF 3.5 WHILE PHFO INCREASED THE CURRENT INTENSITY TO
4.0. CONSIDERING THAT HILDA IS STILL BATTLING VERTICAL SHEAR...WILL
STICK WITH THE MAJORITY AND KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KT.
HILDA IS MOVING TO THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 8
KT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HILDA WILL BE IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF A MID AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FARTHER TO THE
NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS SHIFT THE RIDGE ALOFT TO OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF
HAWAII...WHICH SHOULD TURN HILDA ON A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
COURSE FROM 24 TO 72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS BUT IN GENERAL DIG AN UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWARD CLOSE TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD
WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF HILDA...ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO ASSUME A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE. THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH FOLLOWS
THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS ALMOST IN LOCK STEP WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
GUNA TCON AND TVCN. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT NOGAPS CONTINUES
TO TAKE HILDA ON A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AFTER 48 HOURS. IT IS STILL
TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS IS A CORRECT MOVE.
THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL RELAXATION OF THE
VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENTLY OVER HILDA...SO THERE REMAINS A CHANCE
THAT HILDA WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS GHMI...HWRF AND SHIPS WHICH STRENGTHEN
HILDA TO A HURRICANE AFTER 48 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 14.8N 147.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 14.7N 149.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 14.6N 150.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 14.4N 152.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 14.2N 153.4W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 14.3N 156.2W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 15.0N 159.6W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 17.0N 163.0W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG
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HURAKAN
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Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM HILDA (11E)
000
WTPA35 PHFO 251446
TCPCP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 AM HST TUE AUG 25 2009
...HILDA IS MOVING TO THE WEST AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
INTENSITY...
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.9 WEST OR ABOUT
535 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 745 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HONOLULU HAWAII.
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLOW
INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.7N 148.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG
000
WTPA45 PHFO 251449
TCDCP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 AM HST TUE AUG 25 2009
THE SHEAR ACROSS HILDA HAS DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KT AND OUTFLOW
OF HIGH CLOUDS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALSO WITH THE
SHEAR ALMOST GONE...DEEP CONVECTION IS NO LONGER RELEGATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE BUT RATHER APPEARS TO BE OVER THE ESTIMATED
LOW LEVEL CENTER. SAB AND JTWC AGAIN HAD A CI NUMBER OF 3.5 WHILE
PHFO STAYED AT 4.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON THE
FIRST TWO AND AN ADT CI OF 3.6.
HILDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
REMAINS IN DEEP LAYER EASTERLIES LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. FROM 24 TO ABOUT 72 HOURS...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WHICH SHOULD STEER HILDA ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST COURSE. BEYOND 72
HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN SOLUTIONS BUT IN GENERAL DIG AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD CLOSE TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF HILDA...
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO ASSUME A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE. THE FORECAST
TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS JUST NORTH OF A TIGHTLY BUNCHED
GUNA TCON AND TVCN THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE TRACK IS SOUTH OF AND
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
WITH WEAK SHEAR AND SSTS FROM 27C TO 28C...HILDA IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN FACT STRENGTHENS
HILDA TO A HURRICANE AFTER 48 HOURS AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
ICON AND IVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 14.7N 148.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.5N 150.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 14.3N 151.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 14.1N 153.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 14.0N 154.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 14.2N 158.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 15.0N 162.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 16.8N 166.3W 70 KT
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG
WTPA35 PHFO 251446
TCPCP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 AM HST TUE AUG 25 2009
...HILDA IS MOVING TO THE WEST AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
INTENSITY...
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.9 WEST OR ABOUT
535 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 745 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HONOLULU HAWAII.
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLOW
INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.7N 148.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG
000
WTPA45 PHFO 251449
TCDCP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 AM HST TUE AUG 25 2009
THE SHEAR ACROSS HILDA HAS DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KT AND OUTFLOW
OF HIGH CLOUDS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALSO WITH THE
SHEAR ALMOST GONE...DEEP CONVECTION IS NO LONGER RELEGATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE BUT RATHER APPEARS TO BE OVER THE ESTIMATED
LOW LEVEL CENTER. SAB AND JTWC AGAIN HAD A CI NUMBER OF 3.5 WHILE
PHFO STAYED AT 4.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON THE
FIRST TWO AND AN ADT CI OF 3.6.
HILDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
REMAINS IN DEEP LAYER EASTERLIES LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. FROM 24 TO ABOUT 72 HOURS...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WHICH SHOULD STEER HILDA ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST COURSE. BEYOND 72
HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN SOLUTIONS BUT IN GENERAL DIG AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD CLOSE TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF HILDA...
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO ASSUME A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE. THE FORECAST
TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS JUST NORTH OF A TIGHTLY BUNCHED
GUNA TCON AND TVCN THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE TRACK IS SOUTH OF AND
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
WITH WEAK SHEAR AND SSTS FROM 27C TO 28C...HILDA IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN FACT STRENGTHENS
HILDA TO A HURRICANE AFTER 48 HOURS AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
ICON AND IVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 14.7N 148.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.5N 150.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 14.3N 151.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 14.1N 153.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 14.0N 154.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 14.2N 158.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 15.0N 162.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 16.8N 166.3W 70 KT
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG
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