189
WHXX01 KMIA 260040
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC WED AUG 26 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO (EP122009) 20090826 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090826 0000 090826 1200 090827 0000 090827 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.0N 121.0W 21.7N 123.3W 23.6N 125.6W 25.5N 127.6W
BAMD 20.0N 121.0W 21.6N 122.9W 23.6N 124.7W 25.8N 126.2W
BAMM 20.0N 121.0W 21.6N 123.3W 23.7N 125.3W 25.9N 127.0W
LBAR 20.0N 121.0W 21.7N 123.0W 24.0N 124.9W 26.6N 126.6W
SHIP 45KTS 48KTS 49KTS 44KTS
DSHP 45KTS 48KTS 49KTS 44KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090828 0000 090829 0000 090830 0000 090831 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.3N 129.2W 29.3N 131.9W 29.7N 134.8W 29.3N 138.3W
BAMD 28.3N 127.2W 31.7N 127.9W 32.0N 127.9W 30.0N 128.2W
BAMM 28.3N 128.3W 31.4N 130.0W 31.7N 130.9W 29.8N 131.9W
LBAR 29.5N 127.6W 34.7N 127.3W 36.8N 125.9W 35.9N 124.0W
SHIP 37KTS 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 37KTS 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.0N LONCUR = 121.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 18.3N LONM12 = 118.9W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 116.8W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 30NM
$$
NNNN
EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO (12E)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO (12E)
WTPZ32 KNHC 260232
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2009
...IGNACIO ACCELERATING NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST OR ABOUT 765
MILES...1230 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
IGNACIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS NOW THAT
IGNACIO IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.4N 121.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
WTPZ42 KNHC 260232
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2009
IGNACIO NOW CONSISTS OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A
CONVECTIVE BAND CURLING AROUND THE EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IS MOSTLY VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION...AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECK OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS BEING
ADVECTED INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH. AN ASCAT PASS AT
1809 UTC INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS AT THE TIME WERE 45 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. THIS COULD BE GENEROUS NOW
THAT THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT WARMING OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS.
THE CENTER OF IGNACIO IS NOW MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 26C...AND THE SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY SEVERAL DEGREES
CELSIUS AS THE STORM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
COMBINED WITH THE INGESTION OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR...THIS
SHOULD CAUSE IGNACIO TO STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...HOLDS IGNACIO
AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT THIS
APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND
SHOWS IGNACIO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS THEN DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY 96 HOURS.
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED FOR AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/13.
IGNACIO IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT ONCE IT WEAKENS
IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE WEST WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 20.4N 121.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 21.5N 123.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 23.1N 125.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 24.8N 127.1W 35 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 26.3N 128.7W 30 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 27.5N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2009
...IGNACIO ACCELERATING NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST OR ABOUT 765
MILES...1230 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
IGNACIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS NOW THAT
IGNACIO IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.4N 121.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
WTPZ42 KNHC 260232
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2009
IGNACIO NOW CONSISTS OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A
CONVECTIVE BAND CURLING AROUND THE EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IS MOSTLY VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION...AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECK OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS BEING
ADVECTED INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH. AN ASCAT PASS AT
1809 UTC INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS AT THE TIME WERE 45 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. THIS COULD BE GENEROUS NOW
THAT THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT WARMING OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS.
THE CENTER OF IGNACIO IS NOW MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 26C...AND THE SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY SEVERAL DEGREES
CELSIUS AS THE STORM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
COMBINED WITH THE INGESTION OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR...THIS
SHOULD CAUSE IGNACIO TO STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...HOLDS IGNACIO
AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT THIS
APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND
SHOWS IGNACIO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS THEN DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY 96 HOURS.
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED FOR AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/13.
IGNACIO IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT ONCE IT WEAKENS
IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE WEST WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 20.4N 121.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 21.5N 123.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 23.1N 125.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 24.8N 127.1W 35 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 26.3N 128.7W 30 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 27.5N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
200 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2009
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SHAPE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WITH CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS STILL SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT AND
QUIKSCAT DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THESE WINDS ARE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. IGNACIO IS ALREADY OVER COOLER
WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN TWO DAYS OR EARLIER.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST
AT 12 KNOTS. IGNACIO IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS AND
SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE SHALLOW
REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE MORE TO THE WEST STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0900Z 21.1N 122.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 22.2N 124.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 24.0N 126.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 25.5N 128.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 130.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/0600Z 27.5N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
200 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2009
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SHAPE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WITH CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS STILL SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT AND
QUIKSCAT DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THESE WINDS ARE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. IGNACIO IS ALREADY OVER COOLER
WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN TWO DAYS OR EARLIER.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST
AT 12 KNOTS. IGNACIO IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS AND
SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE SHALLOW
REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE MORE TO THE WEST STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0900Z 21.1N 122.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 22.2N 124.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 24.0N 126.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 25.5N 128.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 130.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/0600Z 27.5N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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424
WTPZ22 KNHC 261441
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 124.0W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 124.0W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 123.6W
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 24.5N 127.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.1N 129.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.0N 131.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.5N 133.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 124.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTPZ22 KNHC 261441
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 124.0W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 124.0W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 123.6W
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 24.5N 127.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.1N 129.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.0N 131.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.5N 133.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 124.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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WTPZ32 KNHC 261442
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
800 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2009
...IGNACIO BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST OR ABOUT 905
MILES...1460 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
IGNACIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IGNACIO
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.6N 124.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTPZ32 KNHC 261442
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
800 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2009
...IGNACIO BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST OR ABOUT 905
MILES...1460 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
IGNACIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IGNACIO
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.6N 124.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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WTPZ42 KNHC 262038
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
200 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2009
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IGNACIO IS EXPOSED WELL TO THE WEST OF A
WEAKENING BAND OF CONVECTION. A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT ARRIVED SHORTLY
AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED SOME RELIABLE
40-45 KT WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS
THAT WAS JUST RECEIVED SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT BUT DID NOT SAMPLE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.
A BLEND OF THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES
YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. IGNACIO WILL BE MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THEN TURN WEST IN THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT LIES
A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE-WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT
AND ASCAT DATA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/2100Z 22.1N 124.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 23.3N 126.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 25.0N 128.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 28/0600Z 26.4N 129.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 28/1800Z 27.0N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/1800Z 27.0N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
WTPZ42 KNHC 262038
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
200 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2009
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IGNACIO IS EXPOSED WELL TO THE WEST OF A
WEAKENING BAND OF CONVECTION. A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT ARRIVED SHORTLY
AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED SOME RELIABLE
40-45 KT WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS
THAT WAS JUST RECEIVED SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT BUT DID NOT SAMPLE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.
A BLEND OF THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES
YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. IGNACIO WILL BE MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THEN TURN WEST IN THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT LIES
A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE-WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT
AND ASCAT DATA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/2100Z 22.1N 124.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 23.3N 126.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 25.0N 128.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 28/0600Z 26.4N 129.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 28/1800Z 27.0N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/1800Z 27.0N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO (12E)
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 270839
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
200 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2009
THE CENTER OF IGNACIO HAS BEEN DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME PATCHES OF CONVECTION
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WHERE QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED SOME
30 TO 35 KT WIND VECTORS. SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
TO 30 KNOTS. A CONTINUED GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED AND IGNACIO SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY.
THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 KNOTS BUT IT
SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST AND MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
UNTIL DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 24.6N 126.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 26.0N 128.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 129.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 28/1800Z 28.0N 131.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTPZ42 KNHC 270839
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
200 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2009
THE CENTER OF IGNACIO HAS BEEN DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME PATCHES OF CONVECTION
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WHERE QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED SOME
30 TO 35 KT WIND VECTORS. SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
TO 30 KNOTS. A CONTINUED GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED AND IGNACIO SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY.
THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 KNOTS BUT IT
SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST AND MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
UNTIL DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 24.6N 126.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 26.0N 128.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 129.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 28/1800Z 28.0N 131.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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WTPZ42 KNHC 271434
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
800 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2009
IGNACIO HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12-18
HOURS. THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS...SIGNALING THE DEGENERATION OF IGNACIO TO REMNANT LOW
STATUS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT...OUT OF RESPECT OF
THE OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA WHICH SHOWED 30-35 KT WIND
VECTORS. SINCE IGNACIO IS A LARGE CYCLONE...THE WINDS MAY DECREASE
MORE SLOWLY THAN IS TYPICAL FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS SPINNING DOWN OVER
COOL WATER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/12. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE
AND TURN MORE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/1500Z 25.4N 127.3W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 28/0000Z 26.8N 128.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 28/1200Z 27.9N 129.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 29/0000Z 28.5N 131.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 29/1200Z 28.5N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
800 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2009
IGNACIO HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12-18
HOURS. THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS...SIGNALING THE DEGENERATION OF IGNACIO TO REMNANT LOW
STATUS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT...OUT OF RESPECT OF
THE OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA WHICH SHOWED 30-35 KT WIND
VECTORS. SINCE IGNACIO IS A LARGE CYCLONE...THE WINDS MAY DECREASE
MORE SLOWLY THAN IS TYPICAL FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS SPINNING DOWN OVER
COOL WATER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/12. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE
AND TURN MORE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/1500Z 25.4N 127.3W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 28/0000Z 26.8N 128.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 28/1200Z 27.9N 129.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 29/0000Z 28.5N 131.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 29/1200Z 28.5N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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