EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[clfenwi]

It's still a tropical storm, it looks like the warm waters of the gulf of california are allowing the system to stay alive. Fortunately the damage was not as bad as it had been predicted and so far only one fatality has been confirmed.

You're forgetting about the massive rains being dumped on the mainland...

Indeed, there's this tidbit in the 04Z TWD:

AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT
FROM SAN CARLOS MEXICO...LOCATED IN SONORA STATE JUST WEST OF
GUAYMAS...INDICATES THAT ABOUT 25 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2009

JIMENA HAS BEEN VOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND
0600 UTC...AND IF IT DOES NOT RETURN SOON...JIMENA WILL BE DECLARED
A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE LOW DISSIPATING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

JIMENA HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A SLOW DRIFT
TOWARD THE WEST...270/02. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE
CENTER BACK OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA BEFORE DISSIPATION.

THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 27.7N 111.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 27.7N 111.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 05/1200Z 27.5N 112.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 06/0000Z 27.3N 113.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 06/1200Z 27.4N 114.1W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory

For sure at post season analysis,it will be upgraded to cat 5 after we saw the data in the period when it was at 155 mph.

TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2009

EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SMALL THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION...JIMENA HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE
THAN 12 HOURS. THEREFORE...IT IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT
THIS TIME. INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION REMAIN POSSIBLE PRIOR
TO DISSIPATION.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 240/05. JIMENA WILL CONTINUE
THIS MOTION UNTIL THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISSIPATES OVER THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
JIMENA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 27.3N 112.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 05/0600Z 26.9N 112.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[CrazyC83]

I agree that it will likely be upgraded. Here would be the BT intensities if I wrote it - TOTALLY UNOFFICIAL:

28/1800 - 30 kt, 1006mb
29/0000 - 35 kt, 1005mb
29/0600 - 50 kt, 991mb
29/1200 - 80 kt, 974mb
29/1800 - 100 kt, 958mb
30/0000 - 95 kt, 961mb
30/0600 - 105 kt, 954mb
30/1200 - 125 kt, 938mb
30/1800 - 145 kt, 925mb - Peak intensity
31/0000 - 140 kt, 928mb
31/0600 - 135 kt, 933mb
31/1200 - 130 kt, 936mb
31/1800 - 130 kt, 935mb
1/0000 - 140 kt, 929mb
1/0600 - 135 kt, 932mb
1/1200 - 125 kt, 941mb
1/1800 - 115 kt, 949mb
2/0000 - 105 kt, 957mb
2/0600 - 95 kt, 964mb
2/1200 - 90 kt, 969mb
2/1500 - 85 kt, 972mb - Landfall on Cabo San Lazaro
2/1800 - 85 kt, 974mb
3/2200 - 80 kt, 976mb - Landfall near San Buenaventura
3/0000 - 75 kt, 979mb
3/0600 - 60 kt, 988mb
3/1200 - 50 kt, 998mb
3/1800 - 40 kt, 1002mb
4/0000 - 35 kt, 1004mb
4/0600 - 30 kt, 1005mb
4/1200 - 30 kt, 1006mb - Remnant Low

[fasterdisaster]

85 kts for the first landfall seems a little low, I'd go with their 90 kts, she was looking surprisingly decent. (unless I'm remembering what the NHC said wrong). I agree she was probably Category 5 on two instances.

[JTE50]

I traveled to Puerto San Carlos and caught the eye of Jimena. I'd say we got about 100 mph sustained. My pressure was 973 mb. Here's a shot from the backside eyewall