EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)
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HURAKAN
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HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2009
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JIMENA APPEARED TO BE DETERIORATING
SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT RECENTLY A NEW CONVECTIVE
BAND HAS DEVELOPED THAT WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. RECENT TRMM PASSES AT 2340 UTC AND 0612 UTC SUGGEST
THAT A MID-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION WAS SHED OFF TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST BUT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY
SYMMETRIC. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE...AND AN
AVERAGE OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES YIELDS AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT.
THE 0612 UTC TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS
MOVED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/11. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOWS THE CENTER OF JIMENA
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD VERY NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO. ONLY THE
UKMET IS AN OUTLIER BY SHOWING A MORE SUDDEN NORTHWARD TURN INLAND.
BEYOND 24 HOURS OR SO...THE NORTHWARD MOTION OF JIMENA IS EXPECTED
TO BE IMPEDED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. CONSEQUENTLY...THE MODEL ENVELOPE
SHOWS JIMENA SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY 36-48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A
SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLOWED DOWN AND SHIFTED SOUTHWEST FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NOW
INDICATES A SLOW WESTWARD TURN BEYOND 48 HOURS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS JIMENA MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE BAJA COAST...AND THE
THERMOCLINE ALONG THAT PART OF THE COAST IS VERY SHALLOW DUE TO
NORMAL COASTAL UPWELLING. COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE LAND
INTERACTION...THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JIMENA TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
STILL SHOWS JIMENA MOVING INLAND AS A HURRICANE. ONCE
INLAND...WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
CONSIDERABLY...AND JIMENA SHOULD SPIN DOWN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BY 48 HOURS AND A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST SHOWS
DISSIPATION BY DAY 5 SINCE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS LOSE THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION BY THEN.
INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS
LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0900Z 23.9N 111.9W 90 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 25.3N 112.5W 80 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 26.6N 113.0W 65 KT...ON THE BAJA COAST
36HR VT 03/1800Z 27.4N 113.5W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 04/0600Z 27.7N 113.9W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 05/0600Z 27.7N 114.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
96HR VT 06/0600Z 27.5N 115.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2009
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JIMENA APPEARED TO BE DETERIORATING
SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT RECENTLY A NEW CONVECTIVE
BAND HAS DEVELOPED THAT WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. RECENT TRMM PASSES AT 2340 UTC AND 0612 UTC SUGGEST
THAT A MID-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION WAS SHED OFF TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST BUT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY
SYMMETRIC. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE...AND AN
AVERAGE OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES YIELDS AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT.
THE 0612 UTC TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS
MOVED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/11. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOWS THE CENTER OF JIMENA
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD VERY NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO. ONLY THE
UKMET IS AN OUTLIER BY SHOWING A MORE SUDDEN NORTHWARD TURN INLAND.
BEYOND 24 HOURS OR SO...THE NORTHWARD MOTION OF JIMENA IS EXPECTED
TO BE IMPEDED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. CONSEQUENTLY...THE MODEL ENVELOPE
SHOWS JIMENA SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY 36-48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A
SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLOWED DOWN AND SHIFTED SOUTHWEST FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NOW
INDICATES A SLOW WESTWARD TURN BEYOND 48 HOURS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS JIMENA MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE BAJA COAST...AND THE
THERMOCLINE ALONG THAT PART OF THE COAST IS VERY SHALLOW DUE TO
NORMAL COASTAL UPWELLING. COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE LAND
INTERACTION...THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JIMENA TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
STILL SHOWS JIMENA MOVING INLAND AS A HURRICANE. ONCE
INLAND...WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
CONSIDERABLY...AND JIMENA SHOULD SPIN DOWN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BY 48 HOURS AND A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST SHOWS
DISSIPATION BY DAY 5 SINCE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS LOSE THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION BY THEN.
INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS
LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0900Z 23.9N 111.9W 90 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 25.3N 112.5W 80 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 26.6N 113.0W 65 KT...ON THE BAJA COAST
36HR VT 03/1800Z 27.4N 113.5W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 04/0600Z 27.7N 113.9W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 05/0600Z 27.7N 114.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
96HR VT 06/0600Z 27.5N 115.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
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HURAKAN
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235
WTPZ33 KNHC 021140
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
500 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2009
...CENTER OF JIMENA ALMOST ONSHORE OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST COAST...
AND FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS ON THE
WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST OR ABOUT
30 MILES...50 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...
20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS COURSE...THE
CORE OF JIMENA WILL BE NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT JIMENA
IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.5N 112.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ33 KNHC 021140
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
500 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2009
...CENTER OF JIMENA ALMOST ONSHORE OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST COAST...
AND FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS ON THE
WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST OR ABOUT
30 MILES...50 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...
20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS COURSE...THE
CORE OF JIMENA WILL BE NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT JIMENA
IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.5N 112.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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HURAKAN
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NOUS42 KNHC 021430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 02 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-097
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 02/1800Z ON HURRICANE
JIMENA CANCELED BY NHC AT 02/1130Z.
JWP
NOUS42 KNHC 021430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 02 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-097
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 02/1800Z ON HURRICANE
JIMENA CANCELED BY NHC AT 02/1130Z.
JWP
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HURAKAN
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- Contact:
612
WTPZ23 KNHC 021433
TCMEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2009
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS ON THE WEST COAST...AND
NORTH OF BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES ON THE
EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 112.2W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 112.2W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 112.0W
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.4N 112.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.4N 113.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.8N 113.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.8N 114.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.5N 115.5W...OVER WATER REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 27.5N 116.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 112.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ23 KNHC 021433
TCMEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2009
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS ON THE WEST COAST...AND
NORTH OF BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES ON THE
EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 112.2W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 112.2W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 112.0W
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.4N 112.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.4N 113.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.8N 113.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.8N 114.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.5N 115.5W...OVER WATER REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 27.5N 116.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 112.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
977
WTPZ33 KNHC 021436
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2009
...CENTER OF JIMENA PASSES NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS ON THE
WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST OR ABOUT
30 MILES... 45 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND
ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS COURSE...THE
CORE OF JIMENA WILL BE NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE CENTER OF JIMENA HAS MOVED NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT JIMENA
IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...25.2N 112.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ33 KNHC 021436
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2009
...CENTER OF JIMENA PASSES NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS ON THE
WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST OR ABOUT
30 MILES... 45 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND
ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS COURSE...THE
CORE OF JIMENA WILL BE NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE CENTER OF JIMENA HAS MOVED NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT JIMENA
IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...25.2N 112.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: EPAC: HURRICANE JIMENA (13E)
Seems like Jimena has not moved all that much since landfall. What are the chances she could sustain herself a little bit longer in this position? It looks like she's drawing energy from the Gulf of California and the Pacific.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
HURRICANE JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
1100 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2009
...CENTER OF JIMENA MOVING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
ON THE EAST COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS ON THE
WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA NORTHWARD
TO BAHIA KINO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR JUST
SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO. THIS POSITION IS ALSO
ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM...NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND ABOUT
220 MILES...355 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS COURSE...THE
CORE OF JIMENA WILL BE NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR OR OVER
THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...145 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT JIMENA IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT
MOVES INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM. A FEW HOURS AGO...AN AUTOMATED STATION IN
CIUDAD DE CONSTITUCION MEXICO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 67 MPH...
108 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 91 MPH...146 KM/HR AS THE CENTER OF
JIMENA PASSED TO THE WEST.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...25.7N 112.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
1100 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2009
...CENTER OF JIMENA MOVING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
ON THE EAST COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS ON THE
WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA NORTHWARD
TO BAHIA KINO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR JUST
SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO. THIS POSITION IS ALSO
ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM...NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND ABOUT
220 MILES...355 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS COURSE...THE
CORE OF JIMENA WILL BE NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR OR OVER
THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...145 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT JIMENA IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT
MOVES INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM. A FEW HOURS AGO...AN AUTOMATED STATION IN
CIUDAD DE CONSTITUCION MEXICO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 67 MPH...
108 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 91 MPH...146 KM/HR AS THE CENTER OF
JIMENA PASSED TO THE WEST.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...25.7N 112.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
996
WTPZ33 KNHC 022039
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2009
...CENTER OF JIMENA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE ON THE EAST
COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
ON THE EAST COAST.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS ON THE WEST COAST...AND
NORTH OF BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES ON THE
EAST COAST. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
BAHIA KINO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SOUTH OF BAHIA MAGDALENA...FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO...AND FOR MAINLAND OF
MEXICO SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR JUST
SOUTHEAST OF SAN BUENAVENTURA MEXICO. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT
ABOUT 60 MILES...100 KM...SOUTH OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JIMENA WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE CENTER OF JIMENA MADE LANDFALL
BETWEEN PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO AND SAN JUANICO MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS...AND JIMENA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...26.4N 112.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ33 KNHC 022039
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2009
...CENTER OF JIMENA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE ON THE EAST
COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA
ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
ON THE EAST COAST.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS ON THE WEST COAST...AND
NORTH OF BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES ON THE
EAST COAST. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO
BAHIA KINO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SOUTH OF BAHIA MAGDALENA...FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO...AND FOR MAINLAND OF
MEXICO SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR JUST
SOUTHEAST OF SAN BUENAVENTURA MEXICO. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT
ABOUT 60 MILES...100 KM...SOUTH OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JIMENA WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE CENTER OF JIMENA MADE LANDFALL
BETWEEN PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO AND SAN JUANICO MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS...AND JIMENA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...26.4N 112.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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