ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[CrazyC83]

If you're looking for development, the Caribbean is not the place with the shear the way it is. The best chance is probably north of 25°N in the central Atlantic and in the Gulf of Mexico.

[Dionne]

If you're looking for development, the Caribbean is not the place with the shear the way it is. The best chance is probably north of 25°N in the central Atlantic and in the Gulf of Mexico.

SSHHHHH!!!!! The GOM might hear you............

[Ptarmigan]

LIKE Rain for S TX? ...LOL

It would be nice if everyone in Texas got rain too. I would not be willing to write Erika off yet. Isidore and Lili weakened to tropical waves before they became major hurricanes.

[Frank2]

As I see some haved closed the books on the 2009 season and waiting for the 2010 one to start. Is September!!

Even though it's tempting I wouldn't do that - there's still at least one month to go...

Yesterday this area experienced a fetch of moisture coming up from the Caribbean, and there was no shortage of rainfall in the thunderstorms that moved over the area during the afternoon (my immediate local area has had about 1 foot of rain since Monday - much less to the east, and at FLL) - it actually reminded me of our early days in Miami (almost 40 years ago) when it seemed that we had one very wet tropical wave after another, so, the season's not over just yet...

Frank

[HURAKAN]

Not much is left. Convection rapidly decreasing and not much rotation.

[HURAKAN]

056
ABNT20 KNHC 041731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

[Sanibel]

Any reformation would have to happen from a remnant wave in unfavorable air and shear.


Never the less anything that still has convection should be watched during prime time.

[lrak]

Oh,and Irak, quit your whining about rain or I'll send an extreme drought to Corpus Christi! Wait, I'm too late. It's already there.

Sighs...while making wxman57's voodoo doll....bahahahahaha. When you feel that stick in your leg tomorrow, well you know now not to mess with the little lrak chicken hawk.



time to hit the beach...to bad the surf is flat here. Hope everyone has a great weekend.

[CrazyC83]

Any reformation would have to happen from a remnant wave in unfavorable air and shear.


Never the less anything that still has convection should be watched during prime time.

Such isn't likely until it gets into either the eastern Pacific or the Gulf.

[wxman57]

Oh,and Irak, quit your whining about rain or I'll send an extreme drought to Corpus Christi! Wait, I'm too late. It's already there.

Sighs...while making wxman57's voodoo doll....bahahahahaha. When you feel that stick in your leg tomorrow, well you know now not to mess with the little lrak chicken hawk.

http://images.magicseaweed.com/photoLab/122321.jpg

time to hit the beach...to bad the surf is flat here. Hope everyone has a great weekend.

Just remember I'm from south Louisiana. My voodoo is more powerful than yours! See you at the beach!

[lrak]

Doh! I always pick on the guys from Louisiana! I have a headache now, thanks a lot.

See you at the beach WXman57

lrak AKA karl

[HURAKAN]

318
NOUS42 KNHC 041400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 04 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-099

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ALL FLYING ON WHAT WAS ERIKA CANCELED
BY NHC BY 04/1330Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP



Final goodbye to Erika!

[wxman57]

Thunderstorms are stationary and weakening. Wave axis continues moving west. Despite JB calling for it to merge with an upper low near the northern Bahamas and be an East Coast hurricane threat early next week, I think this one's done.

[Evil Jeremy]

[Air Force Met]

Stick a fork in it...

[Cyclenall]

As I see some haved closed the books on the 2009 season and waiting for the 2010 one to start. Is September!!

It's not surprising, this season is a REAL stinker so far. The predictions from March and April were spot on. The tropics might not be dead, but they may as well be to me.

[hurricanetrack]

What if predictions like this continue to come true in the future. In other words, are we finally in an era when they can say with pretty good accuracy that a season will be active or not. And if it is forecast to be a "stinker" will people eventually just not care to look since they pretty much know the outcome? Barring the once in a long shot "it only takes one" storm, why even bother with a hurricane season like this if the experts pretty much know ahead of time that very little will ever develop? Kind of like watching the Detroit Lions this year. Why bother? You know they will win 2 games at most.

Curious....

[caribepr]

Did you miss the whole Erika show and how she baffled the best of the mets for days and nights upon days and nights?

The science of weather is an amazing source of understanding and predicting, with technology its companion, but at the end of the day, Nature can break every rule that humans devise to figure out her next move. Close enough to help us plan, much closer than 100 years ago but for now, not close enough to know for sure. Yet. And if that day ever comes, I'll be very nervous!

[tailgater]

Oh,and Irak, quit your whining about rain or I'll send an extreme drought to Corpus Christi! Wait, I'm too late. It's already there.

Sighs...while making wxman57's voodoo doll....bahahahahaha. When you feel that stick in your leg tomorrow, well you know now not to mess with the little lrak chicken hawk.



time to hit the beach...to bad the surf is flat here. Hope everyone has a great weekend.

Doesn't look Flat at all, but I digress. Guess yall had Erika wake without me oh well I was never good with good byes!

[DESTRUCTION5]

No Im not seeing ANYTHING flat in that pic...