EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN (14E)

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 010844
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009

KEVIN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE MOST
RECENT ONE DEVELOPING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A
0454 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BAND OF 25-30 KT WINDS OCCURRING
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KEVIN HAS BEEN ISOLATED
FROM ITS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOURCE OF MOISTURE...AND INFRARED
IMAGERY NOW SHOWS MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN KEVIN...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

THE STEERING FLOW AROUND KEVIN HAS COLLAPSED DUE TO A NEARBY MID-
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/4. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT KEVIN SHOULD CEASE ITS NORTHWARD MOTION IN A
DAY OR TWO AND THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...STILL MOVING
VERY SLOWLY. LITTLE MOTION IS SHOWN IN THE FORECAST BY 24-48 HOURS
WITH KEVIN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS AS SHOWN IN THE GLOBAL
MODEL FIELDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 18.0N 121.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 18.4N 121.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 18.7N 121.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/1800Z 18.8N 121.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 03/0600Z 18.7N 121.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

Kevin fighting for its life

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 12z:

EP, 14, 2009090112, , BEST, 0, 179N, 1217W, 30, 1008, TD

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Whats the water temp where its at? Could is strengthen or is it toast? Would love some tropical moisture over CA

[HURAKAN]

Not looking good

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 011431
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009

CONVECTION WITH KEVIN HAS BEEN WANING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH
ONLY TWO SMALL BANDS REMAINING. IN ADDITION...A TRMM PASS NEAR
0844Z SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED WITH TWO POSSIBLE
CENTERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BUT THIS COULD BE
GENEROUS. A SLOW SPIN-DOWN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY DUE
TO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND
MARGINAL SSTS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
WEAKENING OF KEVIN...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 360/3. THE DEPRESSION IS IN
AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS...WHICH IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE
FOR 24-36 HOURS UNTIL WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE COULD FORCE A SLOW WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST
MOTION OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF KEVIN UNTIL FINAL DISSIPATION. THE
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING MORE RIDGING...AND THE NHC FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 18.0N 121.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 18.4N 121.7W 25 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 18.6N 121.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 03/0000Z 18.7N 121.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 03/1200Z 18.6N 122.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/1200Z 18.0N 123.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

I think you know what door to take.

[HURAKAN]

114
WTPZ34 KNHC 012046
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009

...KEVIN NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF KEVIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.0 WEST OR ABOUT
840 MILES...1355 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...3 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION OF THE LOW IN
A FEW DAYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.4N 122.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE