WPAC:SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DUJUAN (0912/13W/LABUYO)

[P.K.]

The only agency I've seen issue a track forecast forecasting a NW movement was PAGASA. It looked highly suspect at the time and was very different to the JMA/JTWC forecast tracks. They since changed it drastically to more like the other agencies previously mentioned.

[StormingB81]

This thing is wobley all over the place. I don't think it will hit okinawa it is now moving back to the east

[Chacor]

You'd rather believe a single news report than all the agencies warning on this?

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 219
WTPQ20 RJTD 040900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0912 DUJUAN (0912)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 19.0N 129.8E POOR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 20.8N 131.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 060600UTC 23.9N 133.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 070600UTC 27.8N 135.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
NNNN

[Chacor]

Analysis of motion is now easterly.

WTPQ20 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0912 DUJUAN (0912)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 19.1N 130.4E POOR
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 21.1N 132.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 061200UTC 23.9N 133.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 071200UTC 26.7N 134.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

[theavocado]

"Tropical storm Labuyo (international code name: Dujuan) has changed its course and is now moving northwestward"

Thats is the first sentance in the article look it the last 3 words......now moving northwestward. Thank you.

The phrase "now moving northwestward" refers to the past motion. Past motion, on a weak system in an ill defined steering flow, is a sketchy thing all around. The agency making the claim is essentially having to guess where it moved because all they have to track the weak, ill defined system is geo-stationary satellite imagery (data from the polar orbiters tends to come in too late). In the absence of an eye or exposed LLCC, they literally watch the loop, try to find the best turning, and put their latest position in the center of best turning. Often times on these weaker systems, they choose the wrong spot and that can skew the past motion.

If you then read further into the article you'll see that the forecasted track is to the NE. Remember, when dealing with TCs, past motion is no indication of future motion.

Also, a note on RADAR. At best, you will only get about 200 miles on a WX RADAR, and generally much less than that. This system is not in RADAR coverage. Since you only gave me a generic weather website, and not the actual link you were using, I'm not sure what you were looking at. I'm going to venture a guess that you saw an enhanced infrared image. An enhanced IR shot adds color to the highest cloud tops (the ones with the coolest IR temperatures) to help indicate the areas of deepest convection. Often times the colors used are reds, oranges, and yellows and the effect is to look like RADAR. Even though it looks like RADAR, it does not indicate areas of precipitation, and often does not show the underlying structure of a TC.

NOT RADAR:

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 04
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 18.5N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.0N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.8N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 23.6N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 25.3N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 27.9N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 29.8N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 31.8N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 130.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP,
FLARING CONVECTION STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE ABOUT A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
UNDER AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. TS DUJUAN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTWARD BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARD AND BY TAU 72 TS 13W SHOULD
START TO CREST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND TRACK MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 219
WTPQ50 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0912 DUJUAN (0912)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 19.1N 130.4E POOR
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 21.1N 132.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 061200UTC 23.9N 133.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 071200UTC 26.7N 134.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 081200UTC 30.6N 137.9E 350NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
120HF 091200UTC 35.9N 146.3E 500NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT =
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 19.4N 132.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 132.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 22.9N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 24.7N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.4N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.4N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 31.0N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 35.2N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 132.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
051730Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK
VALUES OF T=2.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. TS 13W IS TRACKING ALONG A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72. THEREAFTER, THE TS 13W WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND ACCELERATE INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN, BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 120. TS 13W IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL USHER IN
A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z
IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

How can I believe one agency??? It is not that but We have People calling it almost a tropical storm before people even said it was a depression or had a good chance of being one. Noone was on the same page for this storm. I mean it shows me that people cant do weather out here. Atleast the weather in the states give you accurate stuff and you dotn have to wait 6 hours for anything to happend..SO before you blow up on me show me some places where I can get RELIABLE weather around here. rather then one saying its going east, the other sais its going south and one says its going NW..who am I supposed to believe?

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 35 knots

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 132.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.7N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.8N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 25.5N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.0N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.3N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 32.4N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 38.0N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 132.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 202
WTPQ20 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0912 DUJUAN (0912) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 20.0N 132.4E POOR
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 22.4N 134.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 070000UTC 25.5N 134.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 080000UTC 28.7N 136.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
NNNN

[theavocado]

How can I believe one agency??? It is not that but We have People calling it almost a tropical storm before people even said it was a depression or had a good chance of being one. Noone was on the same page for this storm. I mean it shows me that people cant do weather out here.

As stated before, it started off in a very weak steering environment with a poorly defined center. It's weather. It does weird things that can't be accurately predicted. Additionally, early in a system's life, the objective aids (computer models) don't generally have a good handle on the system. You can generally expect the first one or two forecasts to be based on incomplete data because some models are missing, or the system is too weak to initialize the vortex tracking software on some of the models.

Atleast the weather in the states give you accurate stuff and you dotn have to wait 6 hours for anything to happend..

Two things about this comment. 1.) How do you know NHC is right? Do you plot all their tracks against the best track? They have errors also, but since there is only one agency in North America you have nothing to compare them to. 2.) NHC has airplane reconnaissance, so there is less guess work with regards to intensity

SO before you blow up on me show me some places where I can get RELIABLE weather around here. rather then one saying its going east, the other sais its going south and one says its going NW..who am I supposed to believe?

This is going to give Chacor heartburn, but as an active duty military member in the western Pacific, you should base your planning on JTWC, but continue to review the other agencies. The actions taken by your installation will be based on the JTWC forecast, and that way you will be on the same page. However, it's prudent to review the JMA, PAGASA, HKO, and CWB forecasts. The "spread" of the forecasts will give you an idea how much confidence to put into the forecast. Big spread=low confidence.

Right now it looks like everyone is in great agreement, so I'm not sure why you are so wound up.



I would suggest you lurk on the forums and learn a little more. Go into the "Got a question" and "Talking Tropics" forums and ask questions about why things have happened instead of coming on the storms forums and spreading wishcasts and complaints.

[Chacor]

This is going to give Chacor heartburn, but as an active duty military member in the western Pacific, you should base your planning on JTWC, but conitnue to review the other agencies.

Not at all. The JTWC is there to serve US DOD interests, and that includes the US military. It's only right that if he's living on base, then the main forecast he uses is the JTWC one. Which still at no point brought it NW or close to Okinawa.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0912 DUJUAN (0912)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 21.2N 133.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 24.4N 135.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 070600UTC 27.4N 135.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 080600UTC 30.2N 137.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 276
WTPQ20 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0912 DUJUAN (0912)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 24.6N 135.3E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 28.1N 137.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 080000UTC 31.1N 140.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 090000UTC 35.6N 149.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Continues to look disorganized

[Chacor]

Still 50 kt, not convinced it will become a typhoon.

WTPQ20 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0912 DUJUAN (0912)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 26.1N 136.0E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 400NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 29.2N 137.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 081200UTC 32.6N 142.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 091200UTC 39.3N 153.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 28KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =