WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (95W)

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 031400
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 100 NM RADIUS OF 15.2N 110.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 031200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 110.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 041400Z.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 15N 110E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[HURAKAN]

The convective area is mostly over land

[theavocado]

TCFA is gone, back to a poor.

WTPN21 PGTW 040530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351Z SEP 09//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 031400)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 110.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 109.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH SHEARED CONVECTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST (CAUSED BY 20 TO 30
KNOTS OF UNFAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR). THE
CONVECTION IS NOW TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE LLCC TO ATTAIN DVORAK
ESTIMATES. SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA INDICATE LIGHT WINDS AND
RISING SEA LEVEL PRESSURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. DUE TO LACK OF CONSOLIDATION AND DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.//
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[senorpepr]

WWJP25 RJTD 071200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 071200.
WARNING VALID 081200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 39N 166E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 39N 166E TO 40N 170E 39N 175E.
COLD FRONT FROM 39N 166E TO 36N 164E 33N 161E 31N 156E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 42N 177E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1004 HPA
AT 49N 142E SAKHALIN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 41N 142E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 34N 180E 35N 167E 43N 157E 35N 148E 33N
140E 41N 142E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 15N 110E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 50N 163E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0912 DUJUAN (0912) 980 HPA AT 28.6N 136.5E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[HURAKAN]

ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZSEP2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151ZSEP2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 070000Z, TROPICAL STORM 13W (DUJUAN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
27.1N 136.2E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO JAPAN,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 070300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 28.6N
153.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
110.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 110.1E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A POCKET OF
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM NEAR
COASTAL VIETNAM. THE LLCC HAS PERSISTED IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN
OVERALL STRUCTURE. A 062227Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THE LLCC HAS WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW 15-20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WIND BARBS ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC
IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
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