ATL : INVEST 95L

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200909041723
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2009, DB, O, 2009090418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952009
AL, 95, 2009090318, , BEST, 0, 124N, 185W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2009090400, , BEST, 0, 127N, 201W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2009090406, , BEST, 0, 129N, 219W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2009090412, , BEST, 0, 132N, 235W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2009090418, , BEST, 0, 137N, 257W, 20, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[Decomdoug]

And the game is on!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/two_atl.gif

[artist]

well, the timing is right, they get rid of one and produce another for the weather watchers! lol

[HURAKAN]

Models run here!

[Chacor]

Up to medium (orange) on the 2 pm TWO.

[HURAKAN]

056
ABNT20 KNHC 041731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

[gatorcane]

I thought the season was over since Erika poofed on us?

[CrazyC83]

Seeing that it is running into a wall of shear, I don't see much chance of development unless it drops down to like 10°N and stays down there.

[wxman57]

Surprising. Looked a lot better 36 hours ago when it had convection all around the center. Satellite imagery indicates it's on a weakening trend now. Lots of dry dusty air around, and its trajectory will take it over cooler water soon. Development chances don't appear to be very good. GFS is recurving a weak low close to 40W. EC doesn't develop it. No development from Canadian. Maybe NHC is bored?

[StormClouds63]

It's got a hostile environment ahead:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_1.html

Could the Cape Verde season really be close to done? That water vapor image hardly looks like conditions near the peak of the season.

[CrazyC83]

It seems the consensus is for this to go poof.

[StormClouds63]

It seems the consensus is for this to go poof.

This may drop dead before it ever has a chance to become Fred.

[terrapintransit]

Poor thing barely has a heart beat.

[Gustywind]

I thought the season was over since Erika poofed on us?

In September....? Gatorcane... you're really joking i tkink . Don't let your guard down in this period !

[cycloneye]

It has a bleak future according to SHIP.

WHXX01 KWBC 041818
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1818 UTC FRI SEP 4 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952009) 20090904 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090904 1800 090905 0600 090905 1800 090906 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 25.9W 15.1N 28.7W 16.5N 31.4W 17.6N 34.3W
BAMD 13.8N 25.9W 15.5N 28.6W 17.7N 30.9W 20.1N 32.6W
BAMM 13.8N 25.9W 15.3N 28.6W 17.2N 31.2W 19.0N 33.6W
LBAR 13.8N 25.9W 15.3N 29.1W 17.4N 32.0W 19.5N 34.1W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090906 1800 090907 1800 090908 1800 090909 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.6N 37.2W 20.0N 41.8W 20.9N 45.3W 21.7N 47.4W
BAMD 22.6N 33.3W 24.1N 32.2W 22.1N 32.3W 22.0N 34.1W
BAMM 20.8N 35.6W 23.6N 38.5W 26.5N 40.0W 29.8N 40.6W
LBAR 21.3N 35.4W 23.2N 36.2W 23.5N 35.6W 23.8N 35.4W
SHIP 36KTS 31KTS 28KTS 30KTS
DSHP 36KTS 31KTS 28KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 25.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 21.9W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 12.4N LONM24 = 18.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET gives some life to 95L.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.5N 23.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2009 13.5N 23.1W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2009 13.1N 26.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2009 13.2N 29.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2009 14.1N 30.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2009 15.3N 33.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2009 16.4N 34.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2009 17.7N 35.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[wxman57]

Models initialized at 20 kts and don't forecast much development. This shouldn't be an orange, more like a low-end yellow. Not sure what NHC is doing, but I can't believe anyone there really thinks this has a good shot at developing.

[Derek Ortt]

the UKMET is for the wave BEHIND 95L

[cycloneye]

Yes true.

[HURAKAN]

I think the NHC likes the cyclonic curvature.