ATL : INVEST 95L

[wxman57]

Don't forget that those "high", "moderate", and "low" labels correspond to subjectively determined quantitative probabilities of development. For a brief time this had a 30%-50% chance of development - hardly that high. And this still corresponds to saying that, more likely than not, there won't be development within the following 48 hours.

I know what the probabilities mean. However, I'm saying that there was no evidence that this disturbance ever had a development chance above 30%. It was in the process of weakening when the development chance was increased to "moderate".

[BigA]

weak does not mean west here. Check the shallow BAM. Even the low level flow means recurve

I mean west after it reaches quite a high latitude, as the CMC and GFS seem to suggest at the5 to 6 day timeframe (I am assuming that what they develop in the central Atlantic at this period near 30 north is 95L)

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 052332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 420 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 052345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 22N
MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 29W-32W.


$$
FORMOSA

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best track

Already at 19.2N.

AL, 95, 2009090600, , BEST, 0, 192N, 314W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[HURAKAN]

A fighter

[Gustywind]

A fighter

who loves fishing that's great and perfect

[hurricanetrack]

Looks like a depression to me based on satellite alone. We have seen far worse looking systems, aka Erika, that were still being classified. Are we keeping track of the systems that could be added to the history books next winter as "extra" storms that were not worthy of 12 hours worth of forecasts but really were technically tropical cyclones?

[HURAKAN]

Looks like a depression to me based on satellite alone. We have seen far worse looking systems, aka Erika, that were still being classified. Are we keeping track of the systems that could be added to the history books next winter as "extra" storms that were not worthy of 12 hours worth of forecasts but really were technically tropical cyclones?

It's not looking bad but unfortunately Quikscat missed the entire system in the last pass. Lets see what it shows next time.

[Doc Seminole]

Cape Verde season is over. OVER!

[HURAKAN]

Cape Verde season is over. OVER!

Also the economic depression is over and unemployment.

[george_r_1961]

Cape Verde season is over. OVER!

Its not over but I am of the opinion that nothing that forms in that area is going to make it even as far as the Lesser Antilles.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[Doc Seminole]

Cape Verde season is over. OVER!

Also the economic depression is over and unemployment.

I voted for Ron Paul

I post that about the Cape Verde season every year just to play around a bit. Personally, I am hoping that we see no further development anywhere...... may God bless America with a quiet late season.

[Macrocane]

As always, I say that we could have a fairly active season with no landfalls and I would feel blessed. If there was no further development anywere I would die of boredom.

[Sanibel]

That central Atlantic wave reminds me of TD10 2005 that burst a small robust burst in the mid-Atlantic and then disappeared...

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 060528
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. THIS SYSTEM SONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BUT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 060513
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A
1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 18N31W. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N. A 2344 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS CONFIRMS THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THE LOW
CENTER. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 29W-32W.

$$
WALTON