WPAC : TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)
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- HURAKAN
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WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 141.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 141.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.4N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 21.7N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.4N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.8N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 30.9N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 38.3N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 47.4N 161.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 141.5E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE LAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 40
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN
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- theavocado
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Re: WPAC: SUPER-TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W)
sevenleft wrote:Are there any higher resolution visible shots of CHOI-WAN? (Larger than NRL) Something large enough to be a desktop wallpaper would be nice. It is a beautiful storm.
NRL has some pretty large ones. Have you looked at the 250M visible MODIS image yet?
Be sure to expand it once the pop-up opens:
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- HURAKAN
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ZCZC 768
WTPQ50 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 19.2N 141.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 21.7N 139.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 181200UTC 25.4N 139.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 191200UTC 30.4N 142.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 201200UTC 36.1N 147.1E 350NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
120HF 211200UTC 41.2N 153.5E 450NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT =
NNNN
WTPQ50 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 19.2N 141.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 21.7N 139.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 181200UTC 25.4N 139.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 191200UTC 30.4N 142.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 201200UTC 36.1N 147.1E 350NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
120HF 211200UTC 41.2N 153.5E 450NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT =
NNNN
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- Blown Away
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Re: WPAC: SUPER-TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W)
Thanks. Hoping we get a really nice new one from sometime today.theavocado wrote:sevenleft wrote:Are there any higher resolution visible shots of CHOI-WAN? (Larger than NRL) Something large enough to be a desktop wallpaper would be nice. It is a beautiful storm.
NRL has some pretty large ones. Have you looked at the 250M visible MODIS image yet?
Be sure to expand it once the pop-up opens:
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Re: WPAC: SUPER-TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W)
WTPQ20 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 19.6N 141.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 22.2N 139.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 181800UTC 26.2N 139.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 191800UTC 32.0N 143.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 19.6N 141.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 22.2N 139.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 181800UTC 26.2N 139.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 191800UTC 32.0N 143.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
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- P.K.
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Re: WPAC: SUPER-TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W)
I don't often post all these ones but as it is so strong I thought it would be interesting for the comparison. 65m/s from the CMA is 126kts. 55m/s from the CWB is 107kts.
** WTKO20 RKSL 161800 ***
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME TY 0914 CHOI-WAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 161800UTC 19.6N 141.4E
MOVEMENT NW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 105KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 171800UTC 22.4N 139.7E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 105KT
48HR
POSITION 181800UTC 26.3N 140.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
72HR
POSITION 191800UTC 31.3N 143.5E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.
** WTPQ20 BABJ 161800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPER TY CHOI-WAN 0914 (0914) INITIAL TIME 161800 UTC
00HR 19.6N 141.4E 910HPA 65M/S
30KTS 400KM
50KTS 160KM
P12HR NW 15KM/H
P+24HR 22.5N 139.5E 910HPA 65M/S
P+48HR 26.8N 140.3E 920HPA 60M/S
P+72HR 33.3N 145.1E 930HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 37.9N 149.5E 950HPA 45M/S=
CWB:
Typhoon CHOI-WAN (0914)
Typhoon Status
1200UTC 16 September 2009
Center Location 19.2N 141.9E
Movement WNW 13km/hr
Minimum Pressure 915hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 55m/s
Gust 68m/s
Radius of 15m/s 250km
Radius of 25m/s 100km
Typhoon Forecast
12 hours valid at:
0000UTC 17 September 2009
Center Position 20.5N 140.5E
Vector to 12 HR Position
NW 17km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 70km
24 hours valid at:
1200UTC 17 September 2009
Center Position 21.9N 139.4E
Vector to 24 HR Position
NW 16km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 130km
36 hours valid at:
0000UTC 18 September 2009
Center Position 23.5N 139.1E
Vector to 36 HR Position
NORTH 15km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 180km
48 hours valid at:
1200UTC 18 September 2009
Center Position 26.0N 139.8E
Vector to 48 HR Position
NNE 24km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 230km
72 hours valid at:
1200UTC 19 September 2009
Center Position 31.1N 143.0E
Vector to 72 HR Position
NNE 27km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 420km
96 hours valid at:
1200UTC 20 September 2009
Center Position 38.8N 149.6E
Vector to 96 HR Position
NNE 44km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 600km
120 hours valid at:
1200UTC 21 September 2009
Extratropical Low
** WTKO20 RKSL 161800 ***
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME TY 0914 CHOI-WAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 161800UTC 19.6N 141.4E
MOVEMENT NW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 105KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 171800UTC 22.4N 139.7E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 105KT
48HR
POSITION 181800UTC 26.3N 140.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
72HR
POSITION 191800UTC 31.3N 143.5E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.
** WTPQ20 BABJ 161800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPER TY CHOI-WAN 0914 (0914) INITIAL TIME 161800 UTC
00HR 19.6N 141.4E 910HPA 65M/S
30KTS 400KM
50KTS 160KM
P12HR NW 15KM/H
P+24HR 22.5N 139.5E 910HPA 65M/S
P+48HR 26.8N 140.3E 920HPA 60M/S
P+72HR 33.3N 145.1E 930HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 37.9N 149.5E 950HPA 45M/S=
CWB:
Typhoon CHOI-WAN (0914)
Typhoon Status
1200UTC 16 September 2009
Center Location 19.2N 141.9E
Movement WNW 13km/hr
Minimum Pressure 915hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 55m/s
Gust 68m/s
Radius of 15m/s 250km
Radius of 25m/s 100km
Typhoon Forecast
12 hours valid at:
0000UTC 17 September 2009
Center Position 20.5N 140.5E
Vector to 12 HR Position
NW 17km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 70km
24 hours valid at:
1200UTC 17 September 2009
Center Position 21.9N 139.4E
Vector to 24 HR Position
NW 16km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 130km
36 hours valid at:
0000UTC 18 September 2009
Center Position 23.5N 139.1E
Vector to 36 HR Position
NORTH 15km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 180km
48 hours valid at:
1200UTC 18 September 2009
Center Position 26.0N 139.8E
Vector to 48 HR Position
NNE 24km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 230km
72 hours valid at:
1200UTC 19 September 2009
Center Position 31.1N 143.0E
Vector to 72 HR Position
NNE 27km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 420km
96 hours valid at:
1200UTC 20 September 2009
Center Position 38.8N 149.6E
Vector to 96 HR Position
NNE 44km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 600km
120 hours valid at:
1200UTC 21 September 2009
Extratropical Low
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Re: WPAC: SUPER-TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W)
awesome water vapor loop, you can see the outlow being pulled towards the trough to the north creating yet another outflow channel.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamwv.html
Also begginning to turn more north at end of loop.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamwv.html
Also begginning to turn more north at end of loop.
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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: SUPER-TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W)
Still at 140 kts by JTWC at 2100z warning.
WTPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 141.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 141.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.8N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.7N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.1N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 27.8N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 34.6N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 40.9N 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 44.5N 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 141.2E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW THAT STY 15W HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD REMAIN AT T7.0. STY CHOI-WAN WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, CRESTING THE AXIS AND
INCREASING IN FORWARD TRACK SPEED AROUND TAU 36. THROUGH THE FIRST
24 TO 36 HOURS, STY 15W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SUPER TYPHOON WITH
THE HELP OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUFLOW AND ROBUST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. STY 15W SHOULD START TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 72 AND
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z,
170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN
WTPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 141.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 141.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.8N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.7N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.1N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 27.8N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 34.6N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 40.9N 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 44.5N 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 141.2E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW THAT STY 15W HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD REMAIN AT T7.0. STY CHOI-WAN WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, CRESTING THE AXIS AND
INCREASING IN FORWARD TRACK SPEED AROUND TAU 36. THROUGH THE FIRST
24 TO 36 HOURS, STY 15W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SUPER TYPHOON WITH
THE HELP OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUFLOW AND ROBUST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. STY 15W SHOULD START TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 72 AND
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z,
170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN
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- brunota2003
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Looking at QS, it appears definitely that STY has not only peaked, but should begin weakening here very shortly, IMO. Now this weakening may be short lived (could very easily be an EWRC, or the beginning of a weakening in general), but it will begin probably within the next 12 hours (before 5 pm EDT tomorrow at the max).
Looking at QS, it appears definitely that STY has not only peaked, but should begin weakening here very shortly, IMO. Now this weakening may be short lived (could very easily be an EWRC, or the beginning of a weakening in general), but it will begin probably within the next 12 hours (before 5 pm EDT tomorrow at the max).
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- StormingB81
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- StormingB81
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5676
- Age: 42
- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
- Location: Rockledge, Florida
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