WPAC : TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)

[cycloneye]

0300z Warning by JTWC=140 kts

WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 18.6N 143.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 143.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.4N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.0N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.4N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 25.7N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 31.5N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 38.2N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 44.6N 156.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 143.1E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (CHOI-
WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z. //
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

It was probably stronger earlier today. My guess for peak intensity is 145 kt at 1800Z.

[StormingB81]

Is this thing every going to turn NNW like they say? pretty soon to stay on track its gonna have to do a 90 degree turn. Now that I have typed this it will take its sharp turn to the north. lol

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 724
WTPQ20 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 18.6N 143.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 21.1N 140.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 180000UTC 23.7N 139.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 190000UTC 28.0N 141.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =
NNNN

[theavocado]

Is this thing every going to turn NNW like they say? pretty soon to stay on track its gonna have to do a 90 degree turn. Now that I have typed this it will take its sharp turn to the north. lol

The one thing going for the forecast is the strength of the baroclinic zone over Japan. With the PFJ oriented along the Japanese coast, it's really not a matter of "If" but "When" (unless it just gets torn apart, which I personally think is a little unlikely). If you look back at Krovanh (12W), you'll see that it did just that, a 90 degree turn as it approached Japan.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has information about how many people live in IWO-JIMA? That island is in the forecast track.

I think there is a military base and it has no civilian population. Maybe Chacor or anyone else has a more accurate information.

Thank you Sandy.Lets see if someone brings more details about that island that is in the track of this monster.

[brunota2003]

Where in the path does Iwo Jima lie?

[cycloneye]

Where in the path does Iwo Jima lie?

Just to the right.

[brunota2003]

Where in the path does Iwo Jima lie?

Just to the right.

I guess this might be important then, eh?

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/RJAW.html

[HurricaneBill]

The island north of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) is called Chichijima. Chichijima has a population of about 2,000.

[brunota2003]

Is there an airfield on Chichijima? If so, what is the name of the airport?


Here is the link to select Japanese obs from different areas (airports and U.S. bases mainly):

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/JP_cc.html

[Cyclenall]

One of the best looking since 2007 in the Wpac. I was waiting for the next super typhoon, there hasn't been many of those recently.

[Typhoon Hunter]

One of the best looking since 2007 in the Wpac. I was waiting for the next super typhoon, there hasn't been many of those recently.

It's taken a while for the Wpac to spin up a storm like this in 2009. Given the slight El Nino I expect the season to go on late with possibly some monster typhoons in November and maybe December.

Don't forget typhoon Jangmi last year, it maxed out at 115kts, 15kts stronger than what Choi-wan currrently is.

[HURAKAN]

Looking right at the monster

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive storm

[leanne_uk]

wow this storm is truely immense. I cant believe the size of it. Great pics hurakan

[P.K.]

Great visible image on the NRL from earlier here.

PS - The term supertyphoon is unofficial only being used by the CMA and JTWC.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 19.0N 142.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 142.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 20.2N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.2N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 24.5N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 27.1N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 33.2N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 39.7N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 46.1N 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 142.2E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE LAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
ENLARGING EYE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL. CONTINUED RADIAL OUTFLOW
HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY FOR STY 15W OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AND WILL ALLOW STY 15W TO MAINTAIN THE 140 KNOTS OF INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE UNTIL TAU 48 WHEN INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW LEADING
TO A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 120. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 96 WITH COMPLETION OCCURRING BY TAU
120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

[sevenleft]

Are there any higher resolution visible shots of CHOI-WAN? (Larger than NRL) Something large enough to be a desktop wallpaper would be nice. It is a beautiful storm.

[CrazyC83]

If only the JMA or someone out there had Recon so we knew how strong this monster really was! I would make a guess on 145 kt.