WPAC : TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)

[HURAKAN]

AMAZING EYE!

[HURAKAN]

Impressive system

[HURAKAN]

Another impressive image

[CrazyC83]

That inner eyewall sure is tenacious...even though it is not helping it strengthen by any means...

I'd guess the intensity at about 100 kt, but the pressure is probably really low, like around 925-930mb, much lower than the intensity suggests as there is a significant double maxima there.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 25.2N 139.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 139.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 27.6N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 30.3N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 32.8N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 35.3N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 40.7N 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 25.8N 139.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN HAS CRESTED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181200Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z
AND 191500Z.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO.//
NNNN

[I-wall]

Is that inner eyewall going to collapse leaving that huge outer eyewall in place? Does anyone have an idea how many miles that outer eye is?

[cyclonic chronic]

a wonderfull typhoon. imagine the damage on some of those islands if this one had made a direct landfall on some of em. or imagine being in it during the ERC, you'd get two eyes!! probably confuse the hell outta people on the ground. rare to see one so strong for so long and have an ERC thats undisturbed like it was. mother nature is a truely beautiful thing.

[brunota2003]

Iwo Jima has recorded sustained winds up to 47 mph, winds gusts to 80 mph. Pressure is currently bouncing between 986 and 987 mb.

[sevenleft]

Eyewall replacement, or becoming annular?

[brunota2003]

Eyewall replacement, or becoming annular?

If you look through all the images, it is going through an ERC...no doubt about it, it is one of the best examples of an ERC anyone could have. Now, could it be going annular as well? I'm not sure.


Image from earlier this morning, clearly showing it was going through an ERC:

[somethingfunny]

I wouldn't call it annular because southwesterly shear already appears to be impacting the storm and I don't expect its' current structure to last long before the SW quadrant opens up....plus you can still see plenty of spiral banding outside of the outer eyewall even though it almost looks like the entire typhoon is just one giant eyewall.

Dangit, I wish we could get recon on this storm. Are there Quikscat returns coming in on this one?

[theavocado]

James Bond fan?

[I-wall]

Looks like the outer eyewall is brushing two islands right now.

[CrazyC83]

If this hits a landmass, the storm surge will likely be MUCH greater than the intensity suggests. I am sure the HDP and IKE are astronomical even if it is only a Cat 3 (maybe Cat 2). The eye appears to be about 50 miles wide.

[Macrocane]

James Bond fan?

If it was on the southern hemisphere it would look more similar

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 27.6N 140.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6N 140.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 30.2N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 33.3N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 36.1N 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 38.9N 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 28.3N 140.7E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED 180 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF IWO
TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 857
WTPQ20 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 27.5N 140.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 32.7N 145.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 210000UTC 36.2N 152.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 220000UTC 38.4N 157.8E 300NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNNN

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 32.7N 145.1E FAIR
MOVE NNE 26KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 37.4N 153.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 211800UTC 39.3N 161.4E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[theavocado]

This product seems to have a bit of a time delay, but the following Sea Surface Temperature and Anomoly plots show just how much heat Choi-Wan sucked out of the ocean during her period of rapid intensification. She has left a snail trail of cooler waters behind her, as would be expected with any medium or larger system in the anomoly plot, but what is amazing is how evident it is in the regular plot. There is a very clear 2-3 degree Celcius change along the edge of her track.

Wow.



And the anomoly plot, which plots the difference between current temperatures and the climatological mean:

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER STS 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 37N 152E
MOVE ENE 25KT
PRES 986HPA
MXWD 055KT
30KT 500NM =