WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION KOPPU (16W)

[P.K.]

WTPQ21 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0915 KOPPU (0915) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 21.5N 113.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 230NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 22.3N 109.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 161800UTC 22.4N 107.5E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 16W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 21.5N 113.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 113.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.4N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.2N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 112.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (KOPPU) LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED CENTER AND DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF A FORMATIVE EYE-LIKE
FEATURE. A 141128Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE
CENTER. THE SSMIS PASS SHOWS AN EYE-FEATURE OPEN TO THE NORTHWEST,
ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT LACK OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM, POSSIBLY BECAUSE OF DISRUPTION OF THE SURFACE FLOW DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO LAND. THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE (20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN CHINA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

How heavily populated is the landfall area?

[HURAKAN]

Making landfall

[HURAKAN]

How heavily populated is the landfall area?

[CrazyC83]

14/2030 UTC 21.8N 112.5E T4.5/4.5 KOPPU -- West Pacific

[CrazyC83]

Do they keep a running best track for storms outside the Atlantic and East Pacific?

Pressure currently 964mb at Shangchung Dao, and earlier had sustained winds of 101 km/h (63 mph). http://www.wunderground.com/history/sta ... atename=NA

Based on extrapolation of current data and assuming that the above estimate is near the eye, the pressure would be 962mb right now.

[CrazyC83]

I know 962mb = about 100 kt in the Atlantic, but the pressure relationships are usually lower in the Western Pacific. If they were reporting 55 kt (10-min?) sustained winds well ahead of the eyewall, it had to be fairly intense. My guess after seeing the data is 85 kt (1-min) for landfall intensity, with a pressure a bit lower at 960mb.

[CrazyC83]

Yangjiang now reporting 90 km/h sustained winds.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/sta ... atename=NA

[HURAKAN]

Inland

[cycloneye]

Last warning,made landfall.

PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 009
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 16W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 22.1N 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 112.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.1N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.1N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 111.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (KOPPU)
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM WITH WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS RAPIDLY LOSING DEFINITION AS IT TRACKS INLAND. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN CHINA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING OVER LAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES
AROUND TAU 24. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL CHINA IS SLIGHTLY ERODING THE STR AND THIS IS ALLOWING TS
16W TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150000Z IS 21 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

Recorded gust over 85kts last night close to my house. Here's video I shot from Hong Kong:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o01gzkZ4O54

[Cookie]

amazing footage mate

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 507
WTPQ21 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0915 KOPPU (0915)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 23.0N 110.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 23.2N 106.9E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN

[Iune]

Poof
WTPQ21 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0915 KOPPU (0915)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 23N 108E
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1000HPA =

[alan1961]

Recorded gust over 85kts last night close to my house. Here's video I shot from Hong Kong:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o01gzkZ4O54

As ever, Great Footage James, risking life and limb for us storm lovers, thank you

[Typhoon Hunter]

Koppu dissipating rapidly as expected. The BBC were reporting about 50 people needing medical attention in Hong Kong due to flying debris. All back to normal now.

Thanks for the comments on the video.